I keep hearing this line "we've had 18 months to prepare the hospital system so staying shut to support hospitals is a lie".
1/
The first issue is that our health system, Australia wide, irrespective of politics, runs short at the best of time. Year after year of stopgaps, temporary staffing up, but at it's heart it is always about churning the max no. of patients through with the min safest staff number
The second is that there is physically nowhere to put the hundreds of extra patients because all the current beds are full. You can chip away at the edges, shuffle the deck a little, but you can't magic up hundreds of extra beds, ICU or general ward.
Hospital across this country are old. Decades of underinvestment has eroded them. No political party has ever felt it's a good idea to invest our tax revenue into health, and year after year, hospitals beg for cash for equipment and staff while the walls crack around them.
There is a strangely abusive thread that runs through hospitals, all hospitals (and I've worked in ten now), that rears its ugly head when you ask for things to improve the system. Most requests and concerns never make it through because the answer is always "don't ask".
As for ICU - to flog an undead horse, ventilators are nothing without people. And people are nothing without training. We've had 18 months to prepare but it takes 10 years to train an ICU doctor, and the ICU nurses probably just as long. It is beyond highly specialised.
And finally, if, in the perfect world scenario we had have found a magical well of trained staff and had the money to provide them and had hospitals to put them in - you still can't outrun a global pandemic. You can't outstaff thousands of people showing up at the door.
Which is why the path out is so crushingly slow. For all of the above reasons. We can't pull staff from other states because then their already full-for-other-reasons hospitals will be shorter than they are already and their patients will suffer even more.
Thank you for reading.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Because I love a good Twitter thread, I'm going to delve into why I think people fall for snake oil treatments, doing what I do best, drawing on personal experience. Because I haven't always been a doctor, I have been a really stupid teenager too. 1/
Another lifetime ago, I was an angry and disinterested teenager, with parents who had split up when I was 4. My Dad had moved overseas when I was 12, and then returned when I was 17 because he had metastatic melanoma and he'd used up all his money on American clinical trials.
I saw him on and off over the next year, at varying points of treatment. Well and playing the piano one time. Pale and crying in a bed in Box Hill hospital another. Well and playing the piano again (he was a musical genius).
I'm seeing a lot of leaks from nurses and doctors to the media in NSW. This happened in Vic last year, and while I personally don't believe in leaking (because it leaves you with zero control over your message, to be manipulated at will), I understand why. 1/
Healthcare workers are usually the *last* people to leak to the press. Non-disclosure clause in contracts aside, we all truly believe in what we do, and we understand that the relationship people have with us is one built on trust. It's very easily eroded, so people stay quiet.
Except when things are reaching crisis point and they feel like no one is listening. The only thing that will make a healthcare worker leak to the media, is if they are scared their patients are going to die from preventable systemic problems and that no one is listening.
I'm going to tell a story about last year that is on my mind and asking to be told today. I have changed details to protect privacy, and it's a common story played out countless times. Content warning: distressing and discusses death.
Last year at our site outbreak, I went to cover a service whose team had been suddenly furloughed. It had its first positive cases there, and I'd been looking after covid patients on another service already, so it made sense for me to go.
I arrived with my two junior doctors (the word junior does them a disservice, they were outstanding). I got them to start swabbing everyone so we knew what we were dealing with, then started seeing everyone to work out who was symptomatic.
In all of the history of science, new discoveries, and indeed knowledge, has started with direct observation of the phenomenon you want to know more about. Writing down the position of the stars each night, drawing the different shapes of plants as they go...
...and observing how a completely new virus affects humans. Never before has the front line been more relevant and crucial. The people looking after hundreds and hundreds of covid patients are our field scientists right now. They are the experts, and we need to listen to them.
We need to listen to what they've seen in their direct observations. This goes for epidemiogists and public health scientists who are working directly on it. There are so many 'expert' voices out there who've not been anywhere near a covid patient, let alone multiple.
I keep seeing this 'opinion' of "why did we vaccinate the elderly first because now the young are unprotected and everyone in this outbreak are younger". It's wild that I have to explain this, especially as it's coming from corners of the medical community, but here goes. 1/
Putting aside for the moment, that dying from coronavirus (not dying with, but from), is horrible. And the fact that the death rate in the elderly is 20-30%, not 3%. Because in some circles, this distressing fact is not enough to justify vaccination, even though it should be.
Older people make up a fairly big proportion of our population. If they are in a nursing home or in hospital, then chances are they have multiple complex medical problems and have high nursing care needs. This means that when unwell, they often need 1-2 nurses to care for them.
At the risk of getting eviscerated like last time I talked about the AZ vaccine, my suggestion for NSW is this. If you are eligible, get it. It is a good vaccine for a large outbreak. I wont insult your intelligence with comparisons made to risk of other things. 1/
What about deadly blood clots? People are calling it a "clot shot" right?
First of all, major props to everyone who has rolled up their sleeves, taken a deep breath, and gotten it. Major bravery on display there, major.
I want you to think about the way this is reported. Every time someone lands in hospital or dies with a blood clot, it gets reported in the news. Someone asked me if not reporting it was 'suppression' aka censorship...