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Jim Grace

@mac_puck

Sep 20, 2021 • 14 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X

In 2015 the National Grid commissioned a study into potential effects of Brexit on Energy supply in the UK.
It was published in March 2016.
vivideconomics.com/casestudy/the-…
1/

It formed the basis of their submission to the Energy and Climate Change Committee Inquiry: Leaving the EU: implications for UK energy policy.

parliament.uk/external/commi…
2/

Strangely, when I click on the link I get "Unfortunately the requested page was not found on our new website." And "We've found the former version of the page on the old version of our website. It is no longer updated, but you can use the link below to view it."
3/

But when I clink that link I get this....
4/

Oh well never mind - I have the original document.

What does it say about Brexit?
IT says if we leave the IEM we get a bunch of problems to do with decreased market coupling / trading / investment an higher costs / lower energy security.
5/

But on the bright side, it says the risks [of running out of] gas are minimal... because the UK has excess storage capacity.

They wrote this in 2015.
6/

Then in 2017 the Tory Government allowed their friends at Centrica to close down 70% of the UK's gas storage capacity... to save money and maximise shareholder returns.
theguardian.com/business/2017/…

7/

WHY did HMG let this happen?
They MUST have known we were going to leave the IEM.
WHY aren't the BBC reporting this?
WHY are they bullshitting us about "wholesale energy prices"?
I smell something, and it is not a gas leak.

8/8

P.S.

Ah! Interestingly, the BBC *did* report on this National Grid study back in March 2016. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

Their Byline:
Supporters of leaving the EU have said claims [...] bills could rise by as much as £1.5m a day are "absurd".

And their analysis:
"only likely if EU neighbours take decisions against their own best interests, like cutting off electricity interconnectors."

(Don't worry folks - vote Leave; what could possibly go wrong? Trust us, we are the Beeb)

@JohnWest_JAWS

H/T to @JohnWest_JAWS

He has just pointed out that Parliament new about the gas storage issues back in 2012.

publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cm…

HMG have ABSOLUTELY NO EXCUSES!

The very best interpretation I can make of Centrica's decision to scrap 70% of UK strategic gas reserve in 2017 was they *knew* the IEM was about to introduce "solidarity"

ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

Meaning *if* we stayed in IEM we could freeride EU reserves and not need our own.

And they *believed* we would stay in the IEM, like non-EU Norway.

Why would they believe this? Perhaps if they had been assured by the May govt.

And then the Johnson govt reneged despite the fact we and just shut 70% of our strategic reserve...

Why would they do something so reckless?

Pure theological objection to the IEM being under the authority of the CJEU is my guess.

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More from @mac_puck

Jim Grace

@mac_puck

Aug 7

In 2016, the brexit referendum was a petri dish for the US General Election. The same people - Cambridge Analytica, Thiel, Bannon , the Mercers & Putin - ran the same plays and won both times.

What if the UK riots are a dry run for the US election?

1/newyorker.com/news/news-desk…

The UK riots show that if enough fuel has been poured, a small spark can start a big fire.

In the UK politicians like Farage, Cameron, May, Braverman and Patel and newspapers like the Telegraph, Mail, Express and Sun, for years splashed the petrol of anti-immigrant hatred.

2/

Eventually it took one tweeted lie - that the murderer of 3 little girls was a Muslim , "illegal" immigrant ,and a recent small boats arrival - to set the spark.

A small ecosystem of bought-and-paid-for RW influencers quickly fanned the flames, and the rest is history.

3/

Read 7 tweets

Jim Grace

@mac_puck

Jan 17

Brexit has a new trilemma, even worse than "Leave the SM & CU AND No NI/IE border AND no NI/GB border".

Now it is "Growth AND low immigration AND stay out of the SM &CU"

If Brexit just makes us poorer, parliament after parliament, decade after decade, it cannot stand.

1/

It may take some time; the English have an unmatched ability to keep going long after everyone - including themselves - can see it's not working. (Watching a retired bank manager taking on a space smaller than his car can be hours of fun - or piano vs. staircase half-landing.)
2/

But eventually people will have enough of getting poorer and the prospect of getting ever-poorer, when there is an alternative just there for the taking.

The trilemma faced by Brexiters like Bill Cash, ranting about immigrants, is their red lines on immigration & SM/CU are

3/

Read 4 tweets

Jim Grace

@mac_puck

Dec 12, 2023

I have seen various estimates of how much extra peak demand would be added to the UK grid if all 23 M gas-fired Domestic Boilers were swapped for ASHP's overnight.

The average UK dwelling is 90m2 and typically has radiators sized on rule of thumb at 100W/m2...

1/

So... in theory, if all the Heat Pumps were working at 82 deg flow/ 71 deg C Return, and all the radiators in the UK were simultaneously putting out 9 KW per dwelling, that comes to 207GW of heat. Which on a very cold day would require 100GW of Electricity. (Shock horror!)

2/

But that is nonsense. In reality, most ASHPs operate at 55 Flow / 50 Return and at those water temperatures radiators that emit 9kW at 82/71 will emit about 4kW.

So... what if we keep the old boilers instead of replacing them and just retrofit an ASHP in series?

3/

Read 13 tweets

Jim Grace

@mac_puck

Nov 30, 2023

https://twitter.com/mac_puck/status/1729094530870255779

A couple of days back I tweeted how the Government now permits employers to pay migrant workers in shortage occupations 20% less than the going rate.
(Which Article 45 of TFEU would have prevented, before Brexit)

Let's see if, the BBC covered it?

1/

https://twitter.com/mac_puck/status/1729094530870255779

Yes: they covered it back on 17th July.

How did they cover it?
Badly. Anyone reading it would think it just applies to builders, carpenters and fishing industry - people not like "us" (managers, engineers, scientists, actuaries, vets etc)

2/bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

Anyone using the BBC for information would think it just affects some horny-handed types on building sites and - who knows - maybe bring back the good old days of Polish plumbers who could re-do your ensuite at 1 weeks notice.

They wouldn't think it might affect THEMSELVES

3/

Read 10 tweets

Jim Grace

@mac_puck

Nov 27, 2023

Either the Tories have not thought through the implications of the post-brexit immigration rules... or they have thought them through all too well.

I have a nasty inkling of what they might be up to, but it takes a bit of explaining.

Let's start with "before brexit"...

1/

Article 45 TFEU is a fundamental right of workers which entails the abolition of any discrimination based on nationality as regards remuneration. Plain-speak: an employer could not underpay an immigrant from Italy, say, just on the basis that they were not from the UK.

2/

Prior to brexit the majority of migrant workers were from EEA countries and this rule protected them.

It was not legal for a UK employer to bring in "cheap foreign workers" to undercut UK staff, and as result immigration from the EU was heavily skewed toward the jobs...

3/

Read 10 tweets

Jim Grace

@mac_puck

Nov 14, 2023

Here we have Electricity and Gas prices in Euro per 100kWh, in February 2023, throughout Europe.

Where it gets REALLY interesting is when you compare the ***ratio*** of Electricity price to Gas price: See next tweet.

1/

The UK has by far the highest ratio of Electricity price to Gas price.

This is a result of Tory Government policies:
1. Gas for electricity incurs a Carbon Tax, whereas gas for boilers does not.
2. The price of ALL electricity is set by the price of Gas-fired electricity.

2/

.... which, of course, includes the Carbon Tax!

3. The government loads "policy" costs - such as the warm homes discount for poorer households - disproportionately onto electricity bills; £140 uplift for electricity vs £34 for gas.

Why does it matter?

3/

Read 5 tweets

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