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Dave Wasserman Profile picture
@Redistrict
Sep 20, 2021 • 8 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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THREAD: I spent a lot of the summer interviewing Congressional Black Caucus members from the South. Almost without exception, they now favor legal action to *unpack* their own hyper-safe seats to create more minority opportunities. theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
"We've only got one of six seats in a state that's a third Black," #LA02 Rep. Troy Carter (D) told me. "If Baton Rouge and Opelousas can be tied in for a second majority-minority district, I'm all in." theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
"If we're a quarter of the population, we should be a quarter of the seats," #AL07 Rep. Terri Sewell told me. "I'm for broadening the representation of African-Americans across Alabama, instead of concentrating it in my district." theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
"Some of our [CBC] members are beginning to rethink what the [Black] thresholds should be," said #NC01 Rep. G.K. Butterfield, whose old district (below) was unpacked by a racial redistricting lawsuit. theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
"If I had drawn the lines, my district would not be 58% Black," #SC06 Rep. Jim Clyburn wrote in an op-ed. "I am hopeful that when redistricting is done after the 2020 Census, stacking and bleaching will not be the primary goals." theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
"To suggest there is some numerical [50%] barrier that you have to achieve is absurd," said Rep. Bobby Scott, whose old #VA03 (below) was unpacked in 2016. "If the votes are changing, the standard ought to change." theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
"I was never comfortable with all the packing," said Rep. Alma Adams (D), whose previous snakelike #NC12 (below) was struck down by courts in 2016. "I think it limits the participation we can have as African-Americans." theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
Tbh, a big factor in this shift: over time, non-Black voters in the metro South (and beyond) have become more open to voting for Black candidates. Today, just 18 of the House's 53 @TheBlackCaucus members represent seats where Blacks are over 50% of the voting age population.

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More from @Redistrict

Dave Wasserman Profile picture
Oct 14, 2023
How is it Dems are cleaning up in special elections/referendums if their national poll numbers are so bad? Because in the Trump era, Dems are excelling w/ the most civic-minded, highly-engaged voters.

Their biggest weakness? Peripheral voters who only show up in presidentials.
A big reason Dems beat pundit/historical expectations in the midterms? Only 112M people voted, including a disproportionate turnout among voters angry at Dobbs/abortion bans (many of them young/female).

But there will be ~160M voters in 2024. So who are those extra 48M voters?
They skew young, unaffiliated, nonwhite and non-college. They’re also more likely to base their choice on a simplistic evaluation of whether the economy was better under Trump or Biden.

On this question - and on immigration/age concerns - Biden is routinely getting clobbered.
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
May 11, 2022
On the other hand, Trump-endorsed Charles Herbster (R) is on track to lose the #NEGOV GOP primary badly.
Herbster doing a little better with more Trump-aligned EDay votes reporting, but still not on track to win. #NEGOV
Never underestimate the Trumpiness of the EDay vote. Still a long way to go in #NEGOV.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
Feb 7, 2022
Fact: of the 301 new House districts that have now been adopted, just 17 (5.6%) went for Biden or Trump by five points or less, down from 39 of 301 (13.0%) districts in the same states currently.
Back in 2012, after the last redistricting round, 66/435 districts went for Obama or McCain by five points or less. By 2020, only 51/435 districts went for Biden or Trump by five points or less - in other words, voter self-sorting explains a lot of the competitive decline.
But the 2022 redistricting cycle is rapidly compounding the decline. There may only be 30-35 seats in that range by the time all is said and done.

So the House's pro-GOP bias may be reduced or eliminated, but the House is also on pace to be more anti-competitive than ever.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
Feb 3, 2022
NEW: for the first time, Dems have taken the lead on @CookPolitical's 2022 redistricting scorecard. After favorable developments in NY, AL, PA et. al., they're on track to net 2-3 seats from new maps vs. old ones.*
*There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in:

- FL, where Rs are debating how aggressive to be
- NC/OH, where courts may order big changes to GOP maps
- PA, where the state Sup Ct will select a map
- AL/LA/SC, where SCOTUS could decide on additional Black opportunity seats
*Evergreen disclaimer: this doesn't mean Dems are on track to gain House seats *overall* in 2022. A 2-3 seat redistricting gain is significant, but a 42% Biden approval rating could be worth several dozen seats to the GOP in November.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
Jan 28, 2022
NEW: Dem leaders in Albany are set to release maps in the next 72 hours, but there's still tension between Marc Elias/Sean Patrick Maloney - who are pushing for a hyper-aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander - and Upstate Dem incumbents who'd like more minor changes to their districts.
At issue: it's theoretically possible to draw a 23D-3R gerrymander w/ 23 double-digit Biden seats (example, left). But it would require Dem Reps. Paul Tonko #NY20, Joe Morelle #NY25 and Brian Higgins #NY26 to give up some existing blue turf (current map, right).
There's talk NY Dems might instead propose a milder 22D-4R gerrymander that leaves Tonko, Morelle and Higgins districts intact but still shores up #NY18 Maloney & #NY19 Delgado (rough sketch below).

In this scenario, #NY22 Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) could be spared.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
Jan 26, 2022
BREAKING: national Dems are using a "communities of interest" argument to urge their Albany counterparts to adopt an aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander that could wipe out five of NY's eight GOP seats. nyirc.gov/storage/commen… Image
Highlights of the 23D-3R plan recommended by commenter "Sean Patrick:"

- Staten Island #NY11 drawn in w/ Lower Manhattan
- New maj-min #NY02 on Long Island
- #NY27 Jacobs (R) merged w/ #NY23 Reed (R)
- #NY22 Tenney (R) put in a D-leaning seat
- #NY03 crosses Long Island Sound
More highlights of the Maloney plan submitted via public comment to NY's redistricting site:

- #NY16 Bowman (D) goes from Bronx to rural Dutchess
- #NY17 Jones (D) goes to the Catskills
- #NY19 Delgado (D) goes to Ithaca/Binghamton
- #NY25 Morelle (D) picks up Buffalo suburbs Image
Read 4 tweets

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