Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #LA02

Most recents (17)

A week late, but let's do a thread on the Alabama VRA case and what it might mean for redistricting in 2024. The Supreme Court is expected to reinterpret the VRA--one way or another--next spring, and the Court's new guidelines will change the way states approach redistricting. 1/
Earlier this year, a lower court ordered Alabama to redraw its map (left), which has had one Black-majority district since 1992. Plaintiffs convinced the court that the VRA required Alabama to draw two Black-majority seats (right, for one example). 2/ ImageImage
SCOTUS has long had a 3-factor test (the "Gingles factors") to determine when a VRA district is required:

1. A compact district can be drawn that is at least 50%+1 of a min. group
2. The minority is politically cohesive
3. Whites bloc vote to defeat minorities' candidates

Read 21 tweets
Thread: yes, the new House map is on track to be slightly more *equitable* (less pro-GOP) than the current one. But keep in mind, it's also on track to feature:

- Even fewer competitive seats
- Even wider disparities in maps' treatment of non-white voters from state to state
I think @mcpli's broader point is fair, but the way I'd frame it is that vastly different standards are being applied to non-white communities in TX vs. IL, AL vs. VA, etc. depending on partisan motive, absent a clearer set of VRA rules from SCOTUS/Congress.
If federal courts unpacked #VA03 to create an additional Black opportunity district in 2016, a consistent interpretation of the VRA would also demand that #AL07, #LA02 and likely #SC06 be unpacked to create second Black majority seats too.

We'll see what courts say this time.
Read 7 tweets
THREAD: I spent a lot of the summer interviewing Congressional Black Caucus members from the South. Almost without exception, they now favor legal action to *unpack* their own hyper-safe seats to create more minority opportunities.…
"We've only got one of six seats in a state that's a third Black," #LA02 Rep. Troy Carter (D) told me. "If Baton Rouge and Opelousas can be tied in for a second majority-minority district, I'm all in."…
"If we're a quarter of the population, we should be a quarter of the seats," #AL07 Rep. Terri Sewell told me. "I'm for broadening the representation of African-Americans across Alabama, instead of concentrating it in my district."…
Read 8 tweets
A look at how the *Democratic Establishment* [insert thunderclap noise] has been mostly routing the left in primaries this year, with the kings @SchneiderG and @michaelscherer. (Beating Trump made D voters much more content w their old guard.)…
McAuliffe's win was expected, but the left lost a winnable LG primary, and three left-wing VA legislators lost primaries; the pro-Green New Deal candidate lost in #LA02; Nina Turner, the likeliest Bernie Wing winner of the year, is running as a pro-Obama Dem.
The situation in #NM01 was a little different, bc the left-wing candidate lost in a virtual convention, not a primary. But the more center-left candidate ran ads touting her work with police and won by a landslide.
Read 4 tweets
Some Dem disarray in #TX06: @RepRubenGallego, chair of CHC's BOLD PAC, says some groups (AFL-CIO, Collective PAC, 314 Action) "splintered our coalition" by backing Ds w no runoff path.

"Latino candidates are consistently second-guessed by progressive and Democratic groups."
Dem frustration has mostly focused on Lydia Bean, who went negative on Sanchez and had little support, but there were a ton of wasted votes for candidates who didn't seem to do anything but file for the ballot.
To be fair: Same on GOP side. I've already mentioned John Castro, who bought up a bunch of billboards and was never seen in person by any other candidate. He got 5.5% of the vote - give 400 more D votes to Sanchez, and that Castro locks Ellzey out of runoff.
Read 4 tweets
The victorious Troy Carter did indeed campaign as someone who could work with GOP, while Karen Carter Peterson did argue she was more progressive option. But both have long records in Dem politics. #LA02
Importantly, as @stephgracela notes, Carter did have some influential New Orleans progressive figures in his corner.
The best way to understand #LA02 may be as local battle between Karen Carter Peterson's Black Organization for Leadership Development and its longtime adversary, former Rep. Cedric Richmond. On Sat, Richmond and Carter's side came out on top.
Read 4 tweets
LOUISIANA: in 2012, Rs packed Black voters in NOLA & Baton Rouge into one snakelike seat (#LA02 below), and dominate the other five. Dems view it as a blatant gerrymander, and now that they have the governorship, they'll have a seat at the redistricting table.
Louisiana's population is 33% Black, and it's now possible to draw *two* fairly compact Black majority seats: #LA02 based in NOLA & another connecting Baton Rouge w/ Lafayette, Alexandria or even Monroe (#LA05 below). Expect Dems to fight/sue for this additional seat.
However, drawing a second Black majority district would likely also mean a dramatic reconfiguration of #LA05, where Julia Letlow (R) was just elected and enjoys plenty of bipartisan goodwill. This is where the politics could get complicated for Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) & others.
Read 5 tweets
Final Results for #LA02

Gary Chambers lost by 1.6% (around 1500 votes)

First of all, tremendous props to Gary and his team for running a real progressive campaign and way over performing polls and the expectations of most of the pundits.
Second of all, this was a defeat for progressives and the race will now be between a conservative Democrat and a corporate lobbyist who has a record of now showing up for her constituents.
Gary is a lifelong activist and the clear progressive choice. When organisations like Our Revolution and DFA endorsed a lobbyist over him it was misguided and likely an attempt to endorse a more viable candidate when Gary was indeed viable.
Read 8 tweets
after a 4+ month election hiatus, I am BACK with live election results for you with @DecisionDeskHQ for two special US House elections in Louisiana, filling vacancies in #LA02 and #LA05. Polls close at 8 pm Central and 9 pm ET – live results will be here!…
NEW: @jbletlow will win the special election for #LA05 outright without needing to advance to a runoff, Insider and @DecisionDeskHQ project…
Letlow, a university administrator, and widow of the late Rep.-elect Luke Letlow, will add to the growing ranks of Republican women in the US House, and will be the first woman to represent Louisiana in Congress since former Sen. Mary Landrieu #LA05
Read 4 tweets
We need to truly w/ #NationalRankedChoiceVoting. It would restore #democracy! My thread of #DownBallotProgressives that includes #NotMeUs + some w/ #YangGang!
Follow @nrcvorg @TheRagtagBand
.@ninaturner🔹is running for #OH11 for @RepMarciaFudge🔹seat she will be leaving in an #Election May! @BernieSanders @CoriBush @RoKhanna @OurRevolution @AndrewYang & many more have endorsed! #NotMeUs
.@GaryChambersJr🔹is running for #LA02 3/20/21 an open seat as @RepRichmond🔹vacates it. He’s 💯grassroots and will fight for someone he doesnt even know #NotMeUs #MedicareForAll
Read 42 tweets
From me this morning: taking inventory of current/upcoming House vacancies. The Crystal Ball's ratings for special elections:

#LA02 Safe D
#LA05 Safe R
#TX06 Likely R

All three elections will use jungle primaries. OH-11 & NM-1 may also open up soon.…
And, of course, it wouldn't be an article from me without a Louisiana history lesson. Specifically, looking at how Julia Letlow’s #LA05 candidacy fits with a pattern (stories from @LamarWhiteJr & @RTMannJr are linked in). #lalege
If I'm discussing special elections that will take place in the next few months in my article, @skmoskowitz has a longer-term look at the 2022 House cycle. Seth's advice? Watch the generic ballot.…
Read 4 tweets
1/33 Sorry for long thread, but I want to post this before E-Day:

I've worked for years on an unfinished project to draw nonpartisan congressional maps for every state to analyze gerrymandering. This map shows the 2016 pres margin by hypothetical district. State maps to follow.
2/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Alabama congressional map with two Voting Rights Act districts (#AL02 & #AL07). Second map shows two Black-majority districts to illustrate a VRA liability.
3/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Arizona congressional map.
Read 33 tweets
The map below proves it'd be possible to draw two African-American districts in Louisiana...and still make it *more* compact than the current map (right now, the 5R-1D map packs African-American voters into #LA02).

Expect a showdown over this in 2021. Image
Under this scenario, New Orleans's #LA02 would go from 62% to 52% AA and #LA05 (parts of Baton Rouge, Alexandria and Monroe as drawn here) would go from 35% to 50.1% AA.
Right now, African-Americans are 33% of Louisiana's population but have an opportunity in just one of the state's six districts. But Edwards (D)'s reelection makes it possible for Dems to at least fight for 2/6. #LAGOV
Read 4 tweets
Do you know who oversees Elections in your State?

In 41 states, it's the Secretary of State (#SoS)
And 10 of them are up for re-election.
#ElectionSecurity #VotingRights

#Elections2019 - #KY #LA #MS
#Elections2020 - #MO #MT #NC #OR #VT #WA

THREAD of All Democratic Candidates
All Democratic Candidates for Secretary of State
#Elections2019 in (currently GOP) - #KY #LA #MS
#Elections2020 in (currently GOP) - *#MO #MT #OR *#WA *#WV
#Election2020 Dems in #NC #VT
(*No Dem Candidates YET

KENTUCKY #Election2019
Democratic Candidate #KY Secretary of State
Heather French Henry

vs GOP Michael Adams

Register by October 7.
Application here:…

#SecretariesOfState #SoS

Read 13 tweets
Call these @HouseJudiciary Dems. Ask why they’re afraid to frame the debate.
Tell them to REINSTATE #AssaultWeaponsBan & propose Feinstein Sen. Bill 66.

@GregStantonAZ #AZ09 202-225-9888
@RepSwalwell #CA15 202-225-5065
@TedLieu #CA33 202-225-3976
@HouseJudiciary @gregstantonaz @RepSwalwell @tedlieu Call these @HouseJudiciary Dems. Ask why they’re afraid to frame the debate. Tell them to REINSTATE #AssaultWeaponsBan & propose Feinstein Sen. Bill 66.
@RepLouCorrea #CA46 202-225-2965
@RepKarenBass #CA37 202-225-7084
@RepZoeLofgren #CA19 202-225-3072
@HouseJudiciary @gregstantonaz @RepSwalwell @tedlieu Call these @HouseJudiciary Dems. Ask why they’re afraid to frame the debate. Tell them to REINSTATE #AssaultWeaponsBan & propose Feinstein Sen. Bill 66.
@JoeNeguse #CO02 202-225-2161
@RepValDemings #FL10 202-225-2176
@RepTedDeutch #FL22 202-225-3001
Read 8 tweets
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018 #Midterms
THREAD of all Democratic Candidates with twitter & websites
& VOTER INFO with Links

Register by October 9 in-person; October 16 by GEAUX
Early voting Oct. 23-30 (not Sunday)
Apply for Absentee Ballot by Nov 2
Register Online here:…
Find your Voter Precinct here:
Registration info:…

Democratic Candidates for #Louisiana #LA01
Lee Ann Dugas…

Jim Francis

Tammy Savoie

vs Steve Scalise (R)
Read 14 tweets

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