I wrote about a huge new study on remote work—60,000 employees at Microsoft—and what it tells us about the future of knowledge work, productivity, and a trillion-dollar question: What are offices good for, exactly?
The study—from Berkeley and Microsoft—found that in the pandemic employees talked less to ppl outside their formal teams, while ties within teams ("clustering coefficient") deepened.
Cross-group communication at Microsoft seems to have plunged. But it's harder to say that overall productivity at Microsoft has puked.
In its latest earnings report, net income increased by 47%. Since March 2020, the firm has added almost $1 trillion in market cap.
A theory.
We can divide white-collar work into two broad categories.
There is Hard Work: The knowledge work—writing, researching, emailing, calling, Excel-ing—that most ppl are paid to do.
And Soft Work: the casual relationship-building that isn't a *formal* part of the job.
Soft work is getting coffee with a co-worker. It’s catching up about the NFL on Monday morning.
If networking, schmoozing, gossiping, and mildly annoying people on your floor with “Hey, does this idea suck?” are species of behavior, Soft Work is the genus that contains them.
Offices’ biggest advantage isn’t hard work. It’s soft work.
That’s my theory. But it's also the unmistakable conclusion of the new Microsoft paper.
Remote work has a siloing effect at firms that sustains individual productivity at the cost of casual between-group relations.
So, the trillion-dollar question "what are offices good for?" can be re-phrased as another trillion-dollar question: "What's the real value of office-based soft work?"
My summary of the last few decades of research on this point is: I have no idea.
So that's my General Theory of Offices and WFH.
What does white-collar remote work substitute well for? Hard work.
What are offices good for? Soft work.
How much do successful firms need office-based soft work to thrive? We're all about to find out.
It has some beneficial qualities, but it's not naturally wholesome. Many ppl use it often and love it and are basically okay. But a lot of people abuse it and develop unhealthy compulsions with it. Also, it's functionally a depressant.
I want to defend "attention alcohol" against most other food/drink metaphors.
Twitter really isn't just Doritos, something tasty with no nutritional value.
Instagram isn't just heroine, a short-term rush of good feels that's destroying your body.
Social media is wine, or whiskey, or beer.
I love Twitter like I love wine or whiskey. These things makes my life better and more interesting. But knowing what alcohol *is* makes me aware of the way my drinking habits fits within a broader knowledge of addiction.
An amazing new study shows the U.S. is doing much worse than other developed countries at performing the most basic function of civilization: keeping people alive.
In the last 30 years, two important things have happened with US lifespans.
1. US longevity fell way behind much of Europe
2. This happened even though the Black-white mortality gap shrunk by half, thanks to strong improvements in Black mortality in high-poverty areas.
1. In the last 30 years, Black infant mortality in the U.S. has improved by a lot
2. But the slope of the red line is still steep, which means Black infants in high-poverty areas have much worse outcomes
3. In Europe, no slope = very little effect of poverty on infant death
Democrats claiming that it's "hysteria" to worry about sharply rising homicide rates across the country because of a long-term decline in burglaries seems like a moral and political dead end to me.
Liberals claim they dislike the Pinker approach to progress—"if things seem bad now, look at the long-term trend"—but a lot of them revert to a bad caricature of Pinkerism on crime.
"Homicides are spiking"
"No, look at this basket of crime variables over a 40 yr period!"
Here is a move that is totally available to us:
The 1990s were really violent. Then most crime measures declined for 20 years. In 2020, homicides spiked in some places but not others. We should care about that, and want to know more it, so we can stop it.
What I think we only barely understand—because it's really really hard to study—is how much does in-person "Sorta Work" matter for creativity and productivity? Is idle chatter a critical carrier wave for psychological safety? Or is easily replaceable by Slack, Twitter, etc?
My bet for now is that
1. The Harvard Business Review Mafia has almost certainly overplayed the benefits of serendipity
2. The pro-WFH group probably underrates how psychologically discombobulating it can be for extroverts to interface w/ peers via only screens for too long
1. Binge drinking and marijuana use have basically switched places among college students between the 1990s and today
2. You've seen versions of these graphs before, but my god.
Americans are addicted to politicizing *every single thing* and thousands of people have died or suffered unnecessary illness at the hands of COVID because of it
3. "Software eating the world" update: still very much doing the old eating-the-world thing
2) There really is an epidemic of "team-picking" in institutional (and independent!) media. Subscription competition will make it worse—or better, if you like teams.
It's the 19th century, again, in news media, but this time, with an internet connection.
3) The most important public health story by far, isn't MSNBC's (etc) big ivermectin fail but the vax denial led by a mix of institutional (Fox) and independent voices. It's kinda galling to see so many smart ppl miss the forest of vaccine denial for the tree of ivermectin b.s.