When people think about contagion, they should think about HOW whatever comes of this affects them and their life?
Will US equity owners see massive Chinese household selling of US equities based on this? No.
Will US bondholders
see massive selling of USTs by the Chinese govt to bail out the industry?
No.
Will Chinese consumers spend less on LVMH products? Maybe.
Will Chinese consumers stop buying premium Kona coffee, American furniture, American-made cars, etc? Stop. It was never a thing.
How about iron ore?
I've seen this one bandied about. It's a bit complex. Contango would NOT be the trade. Contracted sales this year are next year's construction demand for steel.
If you expect a total regime change in the amount of floor space constructed, that is 2023 biz.
...the issue between "good growth" and "bad growth" has effectively resulted in the asset base (and GINI coefficient allowing it) which triggers the warning that houses are for living in, not speculation. The debt growth has served local governments, developers, and has served as
the primary outlet for excess savings for a high nominal growth economy. IF land prices had been fixed, land auctions were by lottery, and price/sqm paid to local govts rose at CPI+0%, developer margins were fixed at cost plus 10%, and land without permits were returned
For people spreading around the Sinic Holdings (2103.HK) chart, thinking it matters... it doesn't.
look at the price chart for the previous 9mos, and how it moved during covid. It has always had tiny official float and even lower actual float.
Sometimes stocks have that pattern. Then they don't.
It isn't the market realizing something all of a sudden. There was no real market.
It is almost always a holder unable to keep holding it up and a margin loan getting called with collateral sold.
The PBOC in Nov 2018 in its Financial Stability Report singled out Evergrande, Fosun, HNA, Tomorrow Group as companies which control multiple financial intermediaries as well as
@jpohhhh@adamscochran@LongShortTrader Points of fact and points of insinuation are always problematic when dealing with a thread which just throws 💩 at a wall.
"John Smith worked too hard in a stressful job, and died of a heart attack." A reader might draw the conclusion that stress killed him. But would have
@jpohhhh@adamscochran@LongShortTrader ignored the part about him smoking two packs of cigarettes, eating 9,000 calories a day, and drinking two six-packs a night.
He may have had a stressful job but saying one and ignoring the other doesn't make it accurate.
@jpohhhh@adamscochran@LongShortTrader Look at 3/31. Net income "struggled" the way Amazon's has. The reason is not much debated. Any equity analyst covering the stock will tell you why.
"They were getting very little actual revenue to grow their empire."
Really? The $65 billion in revenue last year was...