Thread by @Nrg8000

THREAD. Today @GrewalBaani and I released a short interactive report looking to explain and update the situation on the Doklam Plateau. It remains a flashpoint with underlying tension. For this project we built a 3D model & mapped positions on both sides. pageflow.aspi.org.au/mappingdoklam

@GrewalBaani What jumps out looking at Doklam today, four years after the stand-off, is that none of the tensions that caused that conflict have been addressed, there is still an inherent competition for the strategic position in Sikkim. /2

@GrewalBaani To help orient people to the issue and explain the strategic importance of Doklam we produced two 3D models that can be explored here:
skfb.ly/o78y8
skfb.ly/o78AV
These allow you to explore the terrain and positions on both sides yourself.

@GrewalBaani The models are annotated with key positions and points that explain some of this tension. /4

@GrewalBaani In short it comes down to the Jampheri Ridge. A strategic position in Doklam that allows complete overwatch of India's Siliguri Corridor. The 'Chicken-Neck".
Control this & you can observe the small strip of Indian land that connects the North-East with the rest of the country.

It was Chinese road-building towards this ridge that prompted India to step into Bhutanese territory and prevent construction in 2017.

After that was stopped, China continued to build a road towards the ridge, just further back from the border.
/6

This shows China's committment to their strategic goal of control of the Jampheri Ridge. Although the construction has stalled with recent moves towards deconfliction around the border, the road can be continued at any time.

As it stands, India controls the strategic ridgelines along the border, with multiple layers of defense and considerable overwatch over the disputed Bhutanese territory. China has mostly been restricted to building in valleys and on slopes hidden from the Indian border.
Mostly.

These images show the viewshed of both Indian (teal) and Chinese (red) positions. It clearly shows how China has very few eyes into Indian territory, while India's control of the ridges also gives it visibility into Doklam. /9

But despite this, all it would take to turn the current situation on i ts head is a road. And we all know how quickly China can bulid a road, should it see the strategic imperative in continuing this rear road to the ridgeline.