The true test of a monopoly is not market share, but pricing power. A monopoly is when even if a rival comes and offers the product 20% cheaper, the customer will say I am not shifting boss!
3/8
Thoughts on India’s financial services industry -
Bizarrely fragmented due to:
1⃣ Public sector intervention
2⃣ Collusion and corruption
3⃣ Our financial services sector itself is very small.
Two trends he indicates are Consolidation and financialization of savings.
4/8 Why Saurabh avoids investing in Real Estate🏠:
✅ Owning first home driven by emotions
❌ No business case for buying property for investment - rental yields lower than bond yields.
🏢Commercial RE has better rental yields
5/8
Why Marcellus sold #ITC🚀after last AGM, despite it meeting most of their investment criteria.
Two words - Capital Allocation.
6/8
How can retail investors get better at Forensic analysis on their investments?
Two book recommendations:
1⃣ Financial Shenanigans by @HowardSchilit
2⃣ Accounting for Growth by Terry Smith
7/8
Saurabh on Investment Stereotypes - Any form of stereotype are best avoided in the current world.
Quotes Kahneman:
"The reason we create stereotypes is because it's a heuristic that helps us deal with day to day life. Unfortunately, it doesn't hold true anymore."
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We looked at every company with promoter buying for the period from April 1st to June 30th (Q1 FY23).
A thread.
Please like and retweet to help more investors
1/n Total 178 names - Part 1 of top 64 here 👇
2/n
Total 178 names - Part 2 of top 64 buying here 👇
Note: Top promoter selling at the end of the thread
3/n Sectors that saw the highest level of promoter buying: 1. Cements (mainly) and metals 2. Chemicals and API 3. Auto and auto components 4. Capital Goods 5. Financials
As Philip Fisher said: Getting a reality check directly from people associated with co. gives us "much deeper" insights☝️v/s just reading reports & financials
Russia controls ~17% of Nickel’s total supply & obviously with that amount of supply going out of system, one would assume prices to rise
But someone expected prices to fall!
A🧵on how the 2.3x surge in Nickel prices was triggered by a short trade & not due to supply crunch
What happened exactly?
A Chinese tycoon "Xiang Guangda" who owns the Tsingshan Group, the largest nickel mining group in China had placed huge short bets on London Metal Exchange (LME), expecting the nickel prices would fall.
We wonder why he held that view👀
1/n
This bet went horribly wrong when Russia banned commodity exports & Nickel prices started surging
To cover a big short position, someone had to buy equivalent long positions.
This created a short squeeze & Nickel reached $1lakh/ton & inturn led to notional loss of $8 Bn+!😱 2/n