The Carrington Event in 1859 is a scary geomagnetic storm that would probably take out the GPS system and large parts of the power grid if it happened today. But evidence is mounting that it's small on the scale of potential solar flares to worry about knowablemagazine.org/article/physic…
There are signs in tree rings and ice cores that the Sun really roasted us in 994, 775, 660 BC and on earlier occasions. The 1859 size events probably happen on the order of 2-3 times a century, but (just like with California earthquakes this century) we've been unusually lucky.
If you've followed me a long time, you know my fascination with predictable natural disasters that are just rare enough to be outside living memory. A satellite-roasting solar flare is a 100% certainty, but imagine a world that can't even fight covid successfully planning for it.
It's a hard sell to make, but you really want a highly interconnected technological civilization like ours to be pummeled with frequent medium and large natural disasters so that we are better equipped for the really rare giant ones. Another reason to welcome climate change!
Meanwhile, though, we've invented a light bulb that depends on someone maintaining a free javascript library somewhere in perpetuity in order to stay lit.
Becoming completely dependent on the internet over the course of 20 years ensures that anything that happens on timescales of 21 years or greater will destroy civilization. Fortunately, that same internet has also shown us why that's a good thing.

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More from @Pinboard

23 Sep
One politically difficult fact about climate change is that based on IPCC models, the next 10 years look the same whether we make massive cuts in emissions or increase emissions. Climate outcomes only diverge decades after the economic impacts of trying to reduce emissions hit. Image
This is one reason I argue the current "climate emergency" framing popular among educated liberals is harmful. When you have an emergency, but nothing you can do can affect the situation for years, the outcome will be backlash. We just saw this with covid on shorter time scales.
Instead of giving us a pathway to mitigating climate change, climate alarmism instead becomes an expression of righteousness and civic identity, which drops it right into the meatgrinder of media-driven polarization. Nothing could better guarantee failure cnn.com/2021/09/15/ent…
Read 10 tweets
22 Sep
If Democrats were committed to breaking Congressional deadlock they would hold the defense authorization bill, and not their own agenda, as a hostage. But it's going to sail through Congress like it always does.
We live in a country where defaulting on the public debt is normal political brinksmanship, but withholding military spending is unthinkable.
The Democrats could also kill the debt ceiling drama dead tonight by using the coin trick (the treasury has the legal power to mint platinum coins of arbitrary value). But the party, unlike their more creative opponents, appears incapable of *using* power while they have it.
Read 7 tweets
21 Sep
Google's FEC filing is in, and as always full of interest. On August 21, the company made a $1000 donation to Iowa rep Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Less than a month later, Miller-Meeks was here on Twitter spreading disinformation on vaccine policy (despite being a medical doctor)
The National Right to Life Committee gave West Virginia congressman David McKinley a 100% rating on abortion issues from 2011 to the present, and Google gave his campaign $2,500 on August 13.
On August 13, Google made a $5,000 donation to Abraham Lincoln PAC, twenty of whose 2020 recipients voted to overturn the results of the presidential election.
Read 13 tweets
21 Sep
Here's more information for the White House: the guy on the right works for Biden, and the men on the left are refugees Biden is deporting under fast-track public health authority he inherited from Trump that denies them a chance to file an asylum claim. cnn.com/2021/09/20/pol…
The pretense where Biden and his government are repeatedly shocked, shocked at the uncomfortable imagery of their policy decisions at the southern border or in evacuating visa applicants from Afghanistan adds insult to injury. At least Trump stood up for his nativist xenophobia.
Perhaps on Biden's watch we'll get a push to make sure more women and agents of color are whipping Haitians on horseback. But the substance of this Administration's attitude towards migrants, refugees, and undocumented Americans is pure MAGA.
Read 4 tweets
20 Sep
When you see the enormous political advantages of maintaining Trump's nativist immigration policies, but want none of the blame
The decision to obey the parliamentarian's rulings is a political decision made by the party in power. On the southern border, in Afghanistan, and now in the Senate, Democrats have shown us for the better part of a year how they feel about immigration. It's time to face the truth
Sorry, parliamentarian ruled I have to drink all your beer
Read 12 tweets
19 Sep
I think making Facebook the villain, while always fun, takes us past the foundational problem here. Why people are so ready to be radicalized, including into some nonsensical directions like flat earthism, is a bigger question than can fit into a scheme of heroes and villains.
Part of the answer lies in a radical distrust of existing institutions, which if not born in 2008 certainly crystallized then. Another part of the answer has to do with how social media gives every subculture global reach. Another is in the architecture of persuasion and virality
Most of these are questions of human nature—we are a social species whose biology and culture is set up for life in small and gossipy local groups. Taking the "local" and "small" out of that equation has been a great social experiment enabled by the internet. It's not going well
Read 14 tweets

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