If your work makes you study companies and business models you build a deep pattern library to cross-reference a new idea against, adjusting for differences.

I totally lack this and it's a cool thing to have. Next best thing would be to lean on your friends who have it I guess
You can read and listen to pods to learn it maybe. You can even pick up some jargon that compresses some of the patterns (ie "melting ice cube"). But I wonder how far you can get without immersion of investing in companies.
When I hang out with friends (local dads) and shop talk comes up I'm always the one slowing it down "hold on what does that mean". A lot of it very credit/PE-sounding stuff, with more references to legal sounding stuff than I'm used to.
Trading feels super niche onna crappy way, and when I hear about all the fancy biz stuff it inspires me to want to learn it bc it feels like it's more revealing about how real stuff works. But then there's always the feeling of "these guys been doing their thing for 20 years"....
I can't imagine someone looking at my past 20 years and thinking "yea I want to brush up on that". Without a committment to diving in, there's a feeling of I'll never get to know that stuff and it seems important to know.
Anyway, just sharing some thoughts that come to me as i listen to others and I'm aware how little I know.

Following twitter/reading etc feels like I'm trying to do 80/20 but it's prolly just 20/80.

Trading is a weird career but there's not a lot of transferrable skills for a
job that's very hard.

The thing that's transferrable is it should pay enough to give some time and space which is fungible with skill-acquisition so you can get a foot into other endeavors.

Again just thinking aloud as I navigate this "space".

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More from @KrisAbdelmessih

16 Sep
Fwiw if the question was which accounts stretch or linger in me the most it's the more progressive/shitpost accounts.

@SkeleCap
@NewRiverInvest
@JessicaNutt96
@quantian1
@LadyFOHF
@TheStalwart

Provocative but not progressive
@zackkanter
And then there's accounts I just kinda love for being amusing/provacative in a positive way

@vgr
@SuperMugatu
@visakanv (who's spirit most resonates with me and I aspire to but I'm neither as smart or as kind as him)
@p_millerd
Rando

My career has mostly been surrounded by Ayn Randian types but some of the absolute smartest people I've seen in this biz are very progressive and kind of black sheep and I've always been intrigued by genius idealogues.

On one hand you have what Munger says about them...
Read 4 tweets
14 Sep
What will a 95th percentile return for single stock be in the next 6 months be?

What if we restrict to optionable? Anyone have a dashboard that can ask:

"5% of names have an N(d2) of at least 3x"

but 3x is a threshold you can move until you capture 5% of the universe
Because it's optionable I think that sets a floor for what the true 95th percentile return will be since the investable universe for this contest is all stocks.

But I presume that at least half the kids won't realize that picking a recognizable name won't cut it....
Meaning the probability that any kid picks a name that finishes in the 95th percentile is probably small.

Using this to think about what range of implied odds to look for in a biotech. A name that has 5x potential is probably unnecessary to strive for but 2x prolly not enuff
Read 4 tweets
11 Sep
Not in the same league, but have a distant relative that owns a bunch of buildings in LA (he lives in a Santa Monica house that was worth $5mm 20 years ago).

When I asked him about anything related to business, he just says Jesus tells him what to buy.

The lesson...
Time machine to the 1970s and start buying everything in CA.

My family considered moving to CA in the late 79s early 80s when I was living in Brooklyn. I was 4 years old when they scouted the Bay Area.

Parents couldn't land a job there. We settled in NJ.
They bought a house for $70k. My mom remembers camping out bc you could get a early bird mortgage for 13% instead if 14% or something like that.

Anyway, that $70k house is only worth about $400k today. Throw 2% RE taxes and it has been an awful financial investment...
Read 5 tweets
7 Sep
A rhetorical product idea

A fintwit-raised dashboard of dashboards (kind of like layouts in Bloomberg/TradingView/Koyfin/Excel etc) where individuals shared:

🌡️their dashboard
🧠the reasoning for what's on it
⏱️the timeframe/decision the metric informs
i say "rhetorical" since it would not make sense for people to contribute to this...but maybe. I think I could have shared every one of my dashboards and what my positions were and i think almost everyone would still f it up...
since the strategies are ultimately discretionary and sizing, gameplan, and relationships are important

But the dashboards themselves are useful base rate starting points esp since they narrow from the infinite
Read 4 tweets
7 Sep
Reading this post and thinking that a "scrub" from the gaming world is the exact definition of investors who care more about being right or what's right than making money.

sirlin.net/articles/playi…
Read 4 tweets
7 Sep
This is from @ByrneHobart post-mortem of his tuition aka the div futures trade

diff.substack.com/p/the-dividend…

I appreciated how he qualitatively spells out why shorting stocks as a hedge changed the trade.

(you can also see it as short term structure trade with a fixed near expiry)
A lazy treatment would simply calibrate betas of near and long-dated futures and short a ton of stock since you are long the high-beta short end of the div term structure...but Byrne wasn't lazy about the idea.

He intuitively understands that any calibrated beta is...
...sensitive to the volatile measuring period we were going thru.

So instead, his intuition focuses on what matters. The fact that the beta (which is an input to the hedge ratio) itself is volatile and what the trade really cares about is the slope or rate between...
Read 5 tweets

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