The geography of Egypt is bonkers 🇪🇬🌍
Look at that image of the Middle-East by night. See that "flower" in the middle? That is the Nile.
Egypt has 105 MILLION ppl!
99% of them live in that light area!
That's 3% of its territory!
What else is crazy about Egypt's geography?
🧵
The Nile's banks are between 0.5km and 20km wide (~0.3 to 12 miles). 105M ppl live in that area plus the delta. Crazy. They do that because it's fertile AF
What's outside though? Nothing.
In the west, there's nothing for thousands of miles. There's so much nothing that in 5000 years of history, Egypt has NEVER been successfully invaded from here.
Look at the south. The lights stop abruptly. Why? Does the Nile stop there? Not at all. It continues for thousands of miles. What then?
The Aswan Dam
The Aswan Dam has created a huge lake. The southern border of Egypt goes through that lake, quite close to the dam.
Isn't that weird? Why is the same point a dam, a border, and the limit of lights and population of a country that packs 105M ppl in such a small place?
Cataracts
See, the Nile flows very slowly across all of Egypt. But not before. Aswan is where the Nile's 1st cataract was. Then there are a bunch more upstream.
Really, Egypt's length was defined by the place of a cataract.
What do they look like?
Nothing crazy. They're just points where water is faster, rocks appear on the surface, and some banks of sand might accumulate.
What's the big deal then?
This is where the Nile is not navigable anymore.
So Egypt couldn't easily incorporate it into their empire.
Different kingdoms appeared over time. That area to the south was called Nubia.
Egypt & Nubia mixed over millennia, but still remained different enough that that area to the south is a different country, Sudan
The banks of the Nile there are narrower.
Between the narrower banks, the faster flow, and the fact that it's not navigable, Sudan is much poorer and has a smaller population. They can't even afford as much electricity as Egypt—which is partially why the lights stop at Aswan
What's in the north? The delta
It's beautiful.
You know what it's not? Navigable.
40% of the population and 50% of the crops come from there, but the Nile spreads so much that trade ships can't navigate.
That means that, despite being the oldest civilization on the Mediterranean, Egypt was never a naval power.
It's not just that the Nile can't be navigated. It's also that Egypt has no room for trees. No trees, no wood, no ships, no trade, no navy.
Poor and exposed.
If you were clever, where would you put your capital in such a country?
Pharaohs had thousands of years to think about it, and usually picked the point between the delta and the Nile proper.
That's Cairo today.
And funnily the Suez Canal is a stone throw's away from there.
Big deal, because the Suez Canal accounts for a huge share of Egypt's foreign currency.
How did this influence its history?
The pharaohs?
Why was Egypt invaded so many times?
Why is it poor?
Why is it friendly with Israel?
With the US?
Why the military pushed aside the Muslim Brotherhood?
It all comes down to geography.
Why did 🇮🇱Israel strike 🇮🇷Iran now, and not months or years ago or in the future?
A unique combination of a dozen factors converged to make the moment unique for 🇮🇱Israel: 🧵 1. No Hamas to its southwest 2. No Hezbollah to its north 3. No Assad threat to the northeast
4...
4. No more Syrian army to attack 🇮🇱Israel's planes: As the new forces of HTS took over Syria, Israel bombed all the existing Syrian military. No more fighter jets or surface-to-air missiles to threaten 🇮🇱Israel
5. Ability to fly over Syria to refuel
This is critical, because 🇮🇷Iran is ~600-1000 miles away from 🇮🇱Israel, so 1200-2000 miles round trip
The range of Israel’s stealth F35 is only about 1,350 mi
To operate inside 🇮🇷Iran, 🇮🇱Israel needed refueling over Syria
1. From Feb 2025 to Jun 2025, it increased its amount of enriched uranium by 50% 2. It now had 400kg of highly enriched uranium, enough for 9-10 bombs 3. This is 60% enriched uranium. Fuel only requires 5% enrichment.
4... 🧵
4. It's easy to go from 60% to 90% (weapons grade), it only takes weeks 5. The only country on Earth with such enriched uranium and without a bomb is 🇮🇷Iran 6. The IAEA (nuclear watchdog) found 3 secret nuclear sites
7. When 🇮🇷Iran didn't respond to this accusation, the IAEA censured it 8. 🇮🇷Iran responded to the censoring by saying it would open a 3rd enrichment site in a secret spot
Now that the 🇺🇸US has bombed 3 of 🇮🇷Iran's nuclear sites, where will the war go from here?
It depends on 🇮🇱Israel: 🧵
🇮🇷Iran never wanted the war, and its forces are being decimated. Its ability to send missiles to 🇮🇱Israel is being degraded every day. If it could sign a ceasefire while saving face, it would
Meanwhile, 🇮🇱Israel has kept striking Iran non stop. Its daily airstrikes didn't go down substantially in the first few days. Its ability to keep striking 🇮🇷Iran remains unabated
Can there be an invasion of Iran? Hardly. Two maps explain why, and also why Iran is the way it is today, whether its regime will fall, what other superpowers will do, and in general why Iran is the way it is today
The only truly exposed area is the southwestern corner of Khuzestan, which is a swamp
The biggest superpowers lie to the west, and there the very broad Zagros make it really hard to conquer Iran. The mountain range is tall and wide, making logistics similar to Afghanistan. Very hard.
Iraq learned it the hard way when it tried to attack there in 1980
Listening to the debate, it looks like 🇮🇱Israel & the 🇺🇸US intelligence community disagreed, but that's not really the case!
Both thought Iran was weeks to months away from being able to develop the bomb
So what's the disagreement?
Here are more facts:
• Tehran had just announced a 3rd enrichment site in an undisclosed place
• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had recently produced a report censoring Iran for the 1st time in 20y
• It accused Iran of 3 undisclosed nuclear sites
• It claimed Iran had enough enriched uranium for 9-10 nuclear bombs
• All the other countries in the world who have enriched uranium at the same level also have nuclear weapons. Iran is the only country that doesn't have these weapons yet enriches uranium as much
Nuclear is the best source of energy across nearly all the factors that matter. It's the safest, cleanest, densest, most sustainable, geopolitically stable, predictable, dispatchable, and can be cheap.
1. SAFEST
It kills 1000x less than coal
Living close to a nuclear power plant for one year gives you less radiation than eating a banana (graph is logarithmic)
2. CLEANEST
Accounting for all the lifecycle of all energies, it's the one that emits the least CO2