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Lazarus Long Profile picture
@LazarusLong13
Sep 24, 2021 • 11 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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I'd like to invite you to go scilunking with me.

What is scilunking? It's spelunking within studies.

First cave we enter, Dr. Gurdasani's headlamp shows us that kids infect each other...and their parents.

This is a great thread! Read it, then come back for .... gold!
Her second tweet had this study. A genomic tracing study and confirmation of transmission within schools.

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27…

But something in this cave caught the corner of my eye.

A furtive movement.

"most school-associated cases are acquired outside of school"
Hoeg.

A cold wind blows from the depths of the cave.

Dare we?

"Hey, I was promised GOLD, not HOEG!"

You are right, let's go deeper.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

Our headlamps have found gold! 37% less transmission in school!

Where will you spend yours?

Wait a second though. There's something off about this gold.

It's fool's gold.
✅ Kids are often asymptomatic.
⚠️Absence of child to staff transmission does not mean transmission in school is uncommon. We'll come back to this.
⚠️ Reference #5 says asymptomatic attack rate is only .7% within household, so we are to believe kids don't transmit.
So, we move sideways into that cave, and we see what that study says.

jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…

It says asymptomatic index cases are .7%.

Which means the first person found to be infected was asymptomatic.

Does not state if child or adult.
Were children actually addressed?

Yes. Data was limited, but a study was found indicating relatively high transmission from kids!

The exact opposite of what Hoeg tried to fool us into believing!

And thus, we have our fool's gold.
Remember I promised to come back to child to adult transmission?

About that. Hoeg's study was in Wood County, Wisconsin, September-November 2020.

Guess what they had in school?

Teachers and students wearing masks.

In rural Wood County, did they have a mask mandate? Yes.
Technically.

The state was under a mask mandate.

But the sheriff said there would be no enforcement.

waow.com/2020/07/31/lis…

So, in all likelihood, there was much less mask wearing in the community than the 92-97% mask wearing in the school.
And for sure there was no cohorting, etc. in the community.

But all of those NPI's were in the school.
And this is the real gold from this scilunking expedition:

NPI's work.

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More from @LazarusLong13

Lazarus Long Profile picture
Apr 2
@TheAtlantic @danengber Heh - I suspect Mr. Engber has been eavesdropping on my (and my fellow Covid Conscious) swimming safer threads. I have a new solution for showering safer for that I will be rolling out tomorrow.

For future articles by those who will come along, let me point out a few things /+
@TheAtlantic @danengber Thank you very much for pointing out that 4% of America is still masking 100% of the time! That is 13.2 million Americans.

The Masking Nation is larger than 38 states. :)

But, 18% of us masking some of the time in the SAME PEW POLL (tch tch). You would think that would be/+ At a basic level, their COVID-conscious attitudes may not be so far from the mainstream. Twenty-one percent of Americans still think of the disease as “a major threat” to public health, according to a recent poll from Pew Research Center. Thirty-nine percent say we’re not “taking it seriously enough.” But if 50 million to 100 million adults harbor such concerns, very few are doing much about them. Masking rates were once as high as 88 percent; now they’re close to nil. For those who still maintain their masking habit—4 percent, says Pew—the whiplash in social norms has been a shock.
@TheAtlantic @danengber be mentioned, @TaylorLorenz, by Mr. Engber, since 18% lines up pretty closely to the 21% still worried that Covid is a big deal (it is) - that he mentioned.

And suddenly, Masking Nation has 59.4 million residents. We are the largest state. Canada /+

Read 14 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Mar 22
This may be one of the most important studies in a decade.

#LongCovidBinder.

"The models produced correctly classified those with severe ME/CFS from recovered controls with an accuracy of 97%, sensitivity of 94%, and specificity of 100%. "

THAT IS HUGE.
"We found that at Stage 1, those fated to develop ME/CFS 6 months following IM had low levels of IL-5 and IL-13 [25]. " We found that at Stage 1, those fated to develop ME/CFS 6 months following IM had low levels of IL-5 and IL-13 [25]. IL-5 enhances the production of B1 cells which are anti-inflammatory (impaired B1 cells have been found in multiple sclerosis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and rheumatoid arthritis), and IL-13 has anti-inflammatory properties. Jason et al. [26] also found that students who failed to recover from IM had more restricted, inflexible cytokine networks whereas those who recovered had more flexible, less interconnected networks. Network analysis suggests that IL-5 and IL-13 influe...
So, this means ME/CFS can be predicted.

And what can be predicted - treatments can be found.

And they are studying LongCovid as well.

This study is easy to read, And everyone should.

/+

mdpi.com/2076-2607/13/4…
Read 6 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Mar 13
A new study just showed what I have been saying since the start of bird flu. H5N1 is airborne.

Still in place?
USDA: YOU ONLY NEED TO TEST LACTATING COWS.

oops.

USDA: FOMITES (infectious objects) SPREAD IT.

oops.

WASHING YOUR HANDS WILL STOP IT.

oops. This new Federal Order does not override or supersede USDA's April 24 Federal Order, which still requires the mandatory testing of lactating dairy cows prior to interstate shipment and requires that all privately owned laboratories and state veterinarians report positive test results connected with those tests. The new Federal Order announced today is intended to complement and enhance this existing order.
Question [00:51:52] Given the CDC's vaccination program, I'm wondering if this means you think it's no longer realistic to expect that the outbreak will be contained this year? Eric Deeble, USDA [00:52:12] Just on the animal side and all that Dr. Nirav speak to the human side, there's a lot about this disease that makes us feel as if we can arrest its progress. And we've actually seen some success demonstrated to date. With this disease, it does not appear to move by respiratory transmission. We know that there are high viral loads in milk, and we've identified through close, collabora...
In addition to testing, biosecurity is the key to containing this virus, and ultimately ensuring that it is eradicated so that producers do not have to deal with this virus in dairy cattle permanently. Good biosecurity including cleaning and disinfection of vehicle and equipment - is critical to minimizing the risk of disease spread. USDA works closely with state animal health official, producers, and industry organizations to provide guidance and resources for cleaning and disinfection not only on affected farms but for all livestock producers as a part of practicing good biosecurity. APHI...
The study.

✅ 20% of the cows showed up as sick. Had symptoms. But....

✅ It turns out that 89.4% were actually infected.

✅ 83.7% of those had no symptoms. Remind you of any other airborne diseases?

✅ 40.5% of the dry cows not being milked? Infected. So, no Image
Image
Image
fomites or milk aerosols involved, most likely.
Read 6 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Mar 13
There is not much that scares me. Freaks me out.

I am freaking out.

You should be, too.

Do you know what this shows?

Do you know how to avoid this? Holy cow.
This is the continued accumulation of dementia-causing microplastics in your brain. Simple linear regression (shown with 95% CI represented by dashed lines) was performed for total plastics, polyethylene, polypropylene, polyvinyl chloride and styrene-butadiene rubber measured in normal decedent brains from 2004 (average of east coast samples), 2016 and 2024 (NM OMI samples).
See how it increased from 2016 to 2024?

And it actually is worse - they found less plastics in brains from a decade earlier.

ACCUMULATION. Simple linear regression (shown with 95% CI represented by dashed lines) was performed for total plastics, polyethylene, polypropylene, polyvinyl chloride and styrene-butadiene rubber measured in normal decedent brains from 2004 (average of east coast samples), 2016 and 2024 (NM OMI samples).
Read 28 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Feb 23
Great interview of Ed Yong - I am just covering the C0V1D part.

/1 The Interview Ed Yong Wants to Show You the Hidden Reality of the World Ed standing with his arms folded. His eyes tell you COVID is not over.
You've been clear in saying that C0V1D has not gone away. You ask people to wear masks at your events..... You’ve been clear in saying that Covid has not gone away. You ask people to wear masks at your events. But that attitude is not necessarily where the rest of the world is. How do you think about continuing to take precautions and advising others to do so when it feels as if society has moved on? I do it for a bunch of reasons. Firstly, I have learned that I enjoy not being sick. I know that the cost of long Covid is real and substantial, and I don’t want to run that risk lightly.
"I think it makes a huge difference to them to have the person at the front of the stage wear a mask. It tells them, It’s not weird." . I also know that I have many friends and people I’m close to who are immunocompromised. So for the sake of the people around me, I also don’t want to get sick. When I do events, I wear a mask for those reasons, and because I know that every time I do a talk, while the vast majority of people in the audience have probably moved on, there are going to be other people who haven’t. I think it makes a huge difference to them to have the person at the front of the stage wear a mask. It tells them, It’s not weird. So I do it for that reason, too. In terms of holding this line at a point when a l...
Read 5 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Feb 22
I am sorry if this will upset you. A lot of people depend on NASAL SPRAYS for C0V1D.

I have been iffy on them, but viewed them as "if they don't hurt, why not" but not for me.

There's an analysis
on Reddit that you should read in detail, and make up your own mind.
/1
Here is the link:


Here is a 4 tweet TLDR version.

Here is how it starts - the author goes HARD at the underlying studies. reddit.com/r/ZeroCovidCom…There is no convincing evidence that nasal sprays prevent COVID-19 There is a lot of misinformation out there about nasal sprays preventing COVID-19. Unfortunately, there are no convincing studies showing that nasal sprays prevent COVID-19. The published studies investigating whether or not nasal sprays prevent COVID-19 each have major issues, which I will detail here. I have a PhD in biochemistry and one of my PhD projects was on COVID-19. The main takeaway of this post is that there is no sound evidence that nasal sprays prevent COVID-19. Thus, nasal sprays should not be used for COVID-...
Some pretty harsh language, but to me the important thing is we still have clean air.

Which is good, because it boils down to only 2 studies saying that nasal sprays work, per them. 5. Summary/TLDR and final thoughts Unfortunately, many people including covid influencers have fallen for the grift of nasal sprays preventing COVID-19. Some such influencers have promoted these nasal sprays for free and helped spread the misinformation that they prevent COVID-19. Unlike with nasal sprays, there is ample, sound evidence that high-quality well-fitting respirators, ventilation and air purification prevent COVID-19. The human clinical trials testing whether or not nasal sprays prevent COVID-19 are garbage, and to my knowledge there are only two! Please don't lower your covid...
Read 7 tweets

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