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Lazarus Long Profile picture
@LazarusLong13
Sep 24, 2021 • 11 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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I'd like to invite you to go scilunking with me.

What is scilunking? It's spelunking within studies.

First cave we enter, Dr. Gurdasani's headlamp shows us that kids infect each other...and their parents.

This is a great thread! Read it, then come back for .... gold!
Her second tweet had this study. A genomic tracing study and confirmation of transmission within schools.

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27…

But something in this cave caught the corner of my eye.

A furtive movement.

"most school-associated cases are acquired outside of school"
Hoeg.

A cold wind blows from the depths of the cave.

Dare we?

"Hey, I was promised GOLD, not HOEG!"

You are right, let's go deeper.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

Our headlamps have found gold! 37% less transmission in school!

Where will you spend yours?

Wait a second though. There's something off about this gold.

It's fool's gold.
✅ Kids are often asymptomatic.
⚠️Absence of child to staff transmission does not mean transmission in school is uncommon. We'll come back to this.
⚠️ Reference #5 says asymptomatic attack rate is only .7% within household, so we are to believe kids don't transmit.
So, we move sideways into that cave, and we see what that study says.

jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…

It says asymptomatic index cases are .7%.

Which means the first person found to be infected was asymptomatic.

Does not state if child or adult.
Were children actually addressed?

Yes. Data was limited, but a study was found indicating relatively high transmission from kids!

The exact opposite of what Hoeg tried to fool us into believing!

And thus, we have our fool's gold.
Remember I promised to come back to child to adult transmission?

About that. Hoeg's study was in Wood County, Wisconsin, September-November 2020.

Guess what they had in school?

Teachers and students wearing masks.

In rural Wood County, did they have a mask mandate? Yes.
Technically.

The state was under a mask mandate.

But the sheriff said there would be no enforcement.

waow.com/2020/07/31/lis…

So, in all likelihood, there was much less mask wearing in the community than the 92-97% mask wearing in the school.
And for sure there was no cohorting, etc. in the community.

But all of those NPI's were in the school.
And this is the real gold from this scilunking expedition:

NPI's work.

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More from @LazarusLong13

Lazarus Long Profile picture
Jul 1
Danny Glover got his Alzheimer's diagnosis shortly after January 2022, and it just came out today.

While he has not directly said COVID caused it, this is a good opportunity to talk about a few studies and why you should N95 up to avoid #AirborneAlzheimers.

#AirborneAlzheimers? Danny Glover speaks about his Alzheimer’s diagnosis
In a massive study of 6 million people, 6,245,282, "....people with COVID-19 were at significantly increased risk for new diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease within 360 days after the initial COVID-19 diagnosis.."

That is not causal, to be crystal clear.

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10…In this retrospective cohort study of 6,245,282 older adults (age ≥65 years) who had medical encounters between 2/2020–5/2021, we show that people with COVID-19 were at significantly increased risk for new diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease within 360 days after the initial COVID-19 diagnosis (hazard ratio or HR:1.69, 95% CI: 1.53–1.72), especially in people age ≥85 years and in women. Our findings call for research to understand the underlying mechanisms and for continuous surveillance of long-term impacts of COVID-19 on Alzheimer’s disease.
Do we even know if he ever caught Covid? No, but given the pressures of Hollywood, most likely he has.

Below are just a few pics from 2021, starting in March. He was unmasked quite often.

Public health failed him, because of politics (looking at Biden and Trump, both). Image
Image
Image
Image
Read 10 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Jun 10
Please explain how a study measuring physical improvement in a Cognitive and Behavioral study can have unmeasured Graded Exercise Therapy - and be considered as well-controlled. Not confounded.

So, I emailed Dr. Ebell and asked how that was nitpicking. Image
Image
I also agreed with the comments at the bottom of the study, linked below.

If you change analysis protocols post hoc? That's not nitpicking in my book. But maybe that is nitpicking?

jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
Science is ALL about nitpicking. You ARE SUPPOSED to be very detailed, so you can be replicated, right? Alan is funny.

Anyway, amusing to spot the lobbying group for the Lightning Process on their advisory board.

Tch tch. Or is that nitpicking. ;) ? Image
Read 7 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
Jun 1
A thread on airborne Ebola - the rest is accurate.

Let me emphasize that I agree far more than disagree with her, in general.

Declaring a thing debunked without actually debunking it, with facts, is not debunking.

So, let me debunk this. Image
Dr. Kuppila has excellent credentials, and has earned her laurels.

If we accepted the debunking of airborne Ebola on the basis of credentials, we would have given into the fallacy of appeal to authority.

:) not today.

She worked in an Ebola Treatment Unit in Sierra Leone,
coming back in December 2014, and now resides in Dallas per her very interesting StatNews article:



She did not get infected. We could have survivorship bias here - fortunately.

This is a reference to possible surgical mask usage by her.

You see, the web.archive.org/web/2026052103…Image
Read 22 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
May 28
Ebola - it's not all about respiratory aerosols.

DYK that you, and me, and everybody are Pig Pen from Charlie Brown?

We shed our entire outer layer of skin every 2-4 weeks, about 500 million cells daily.

Your corneocytes (outermost cells) lift off of your body with the
gentlest of micro-air currents. Like a leaf picked up off the ground for the briefest of moments in fall.

They act like 12 micron aerosols in float time, but 25% of total skin flakes are sub 5 microns...and you know what that means. Deep deposition - or shallow as
sub 5 likes to also deposit in the nose.

It's funny...I embrace push-back in debate. Tightens up my game.

Imagine if those skin flakes now have Ebola on them?

Two studies show that Ebola literally oozes through the skin - both ways. In and out.

Not shown in vivo, but
Read 10 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
May 23
The WHO forbids contact tracers from masking or gloving up.

"Do not conduct home visits wearing personal protective equipment like masks, gloves, or
gowns."

It gets worse. Do not conduct home visits wearing personal protective equipment like masks, gloves, or gowns.
They have a handy how to reduce risk of catching ebola at home.

It even has 5 masks listed on it.

But not for the other family members.

"7. If the patient has vomit, diarrhoea or bleeding, a mask or a dry towel wrapped around the face can be used to protect the nose and mouth Image
7. If the patient has vomit, diarrhoea or bleeding, a mask or a dry towel wrapped around the face can be used to protect the nose and mouth when touching the patient or items soiled with blood or body fluids. A waterproof gown, eye protection, gloves and rubber boots should also be worn in these circumstances.
Here are the 5 face masks. Image
Read 9 tweets
Lazarus Long Profile picture
May 22
The "epidemiology" of Ebola tells us that it's not airborne. You've heard this over and over.

What drives it? The questions on the contact tracing form.

Quick 🧵. Image
COVID - the WHO and CDC said it wasn't airborne via aerosols, right?

The CDC said it was spread person to person via close contact - within about 6 feet.



And you remember it took FOREVER to get changed.

The contact tracing form was web.archive.org/web/2020032817…Image
Image
arranged around close contact. These are the questions driving the stats of how many and how are infected.



So, the CDC will only hear back what it's asking. This was the epidemiology of COVID - until it wasn't. web.archive.org/web/2020052514…Image
Read 16 tweets

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