The energy crisis in Europe is a wake-up call that US must ensure a smooth transition to decarbonization (i.e. reasonably priced energy). Efforts by some to kill oil/gas industry will result in price spikes to levels that risk losing voter support for the energy transition. 1/
A perfect storm of factors has caused UK gas prices to jump 4x this year, from $6 to $24/mmbtu. For reference, US gas is $5 after doubling since the spring. UK electricity providers are going bankrupt, industrial plants are shutting down, and this spike may cause a recession. 2/
It will be easy to place blame on government policies if consumer energy prices spike. Opponents will scream from the rooftops that decarbonization actions caused the price rise, whether true or not. 3/
In the US, a (growing) majority of voters support efforts to address climate change. A majority also express reluctance to pay for these policies. If voters believe climate policy is causing a spike in energy prices, support for those actions will fall. 4/
While some advocate trying to destroy the fossil fuel industry as quickly as possible, the reality is oil and gas consumption will be high this decade in any decarbonization scenario. Clean energy is growing quickly but off a very low base. 5/
It’s impossible to build enough EVs, solar, batteries, transmission, wind, etc fast enough to materially change fossil fuel use in the near term. For instance, autos can last 20 years and EVs have only 2% market share today. Changing the fleet on the road takes a long time. 6/
Higher fossil fuel prices will spur a faster shift to renewable sources, all else equal, as they become economically competitive in more uses/geographies. But very high oil/gas prices risk a voter backlash against decarbonization policies, which are vital to a cleaner future. 7/
Like it or not, oil and gas will be widely used by Americans, and the world, this decade. The transition to clean energy will be eased if it's smooth: oil and gas prices stay at reasonable levels. Attempts to kill the industry are counterproductive to the broader effort. 8/8
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