This is the key lesson we should really learn from history: That things can always turn, that contingency is never to be underestimated, that we need to grapple with the vast universe of possible outcomes and the full complexity of past and present realities. Some thoughts: 1/
Yes, we absolutely can and should “learn” from history – but probably not in the way it’s often portrayed in the broader political and public discourses, and even by some historians themselves. There are very few clear-cut lessons to be had, no easy policy recommendations. 2/
Focusing on long-term structures and processes - trying to make sense of the world by exploring how it has become what it is today - necessarily changes our understanding of the present. But that’s not what is commonly meant by “learning” from history. 3/
The commonly-held idea of what it means to “learn from history” assumes that there are past precedents for the challenges we face today – that we can look at how people / societies handled those challenges in the past to get a clear sense of what “worked” and what didn’t. 4/
This view of the present’s relationship with the past is deceptively intuitive – “those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it” is one of those aphorisms that politicians and journalists love to cite, especially in times of perceived crisis. 5/
How should we handle Covid? The threat of far-right extremism? A global economic crisis? Let’s find the analogue in the past – the Spanish Flu, Hitler’s rise, the Global Depression – and repeat what contemporaries did well while avoiding their mistakes. 6/
The problem with this idea is that history is, in fact, not a cycle of recurring situations, constellations, and challenges, which would allow us to simply apply the lessons learned from the last time a problem came up to the next time the same problem appears. 7/
History doesn’t repeat itself – and even if it may “rhyme” sometimes, the fact remains that we are necessarily dealing with something new and specific. History is not repetitive, not a repetition of the same; is it accumulative, an accumulation of specific experiences. 8/
We are not experiencing a rehash of the Spanish Flu – because we live in a world that already went through the Spanish Flu, was shaped by it, has been dealing with its effects in a multitude of ways. We are not re-living the past. We can’t be. 9/
As @mccormick_ted put it so wonderfully succinctly here, history is the study of the particular. Historians are not focused on identifying generalizable patterns from past examples that can then be applied to the present – they’re not out to extrapolate a model. 10/
Instead, historians focus on specific contexts, both in a diachronical as well as a synchronous sense; on the specific contingencies that shaped past outcomes; they revel in the complexity of factors, influences, and dynamics that influenced the past, instead of reducing it. 11/
I’m not saying this is better or worse than what other disciplines offer – but it is somewhat distinct. Because if you want to come up with generalizable features, with a model extrapolated from past example, you have to peel off the specific and foreground the general. 12/
This insistence on the particular, when taken seriously, will not yield the type of generalizable lessons other disciplines might offer; it kind of limits the applicability to present-day problems and makes the whole “learning from history” thing more complicated. 13/
So, how can we still learn from history? By applying the analytical skills we gain from dissecting past realities in all their contexts, complexities, and contingencies to the analysis of the equally complex present. 14/
The exploration of history can alert us to the full complexity of human action, individual as well as collective, to the complexities of political, social, and cultural change over time – and force us to develop analytical skills commensurate with that complexity. 15/
Grappling with history can unveil, through historical contextualization and comparison, through the study of long-term genealogy, that many things that seem “unprecedented,” “unique,” “new,” “exceptional” may in fact not be. 16/
Studying history should make us skeptical towards the idea that what we are experiencing in the present is “just the way things are / always have been / always will be” - or the type of exceptionalism that fuels the “It cannot happen here” perspective on the world. 17/
Studying history does not offer clear and easy lessons, but it does, when done right, provide us with a better toolkit that we can use to dissect and analyze the present. History doesn’t provide better answers – it equips us to hopefully ask better questions. /end

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More from @tzimmer_history

20 Sep
Reading this sends cold shivers up and down my spine.

An open declaration of war on American democracy. The key question now is: Will anyone on the pro-democracy side be willing and able to muster a response that is commensurate with this threat?
Had they succeeded, American democracy would have ended right there and then. Had they just tried it, even without immediate success, chaos and a disastrous level of political violence would have been almost guaranteed to follow. This is terrifying.
What terrifies me most is the fact that the Republican Party - meaning almost all party officials as well as the majority of GOP voters - is still united behind the man responsible for this, the man who so clearly would have loved to abolish democracy on January 6.
Read 6 tweets
19 Sep
Every “Western” society harbors far-right extremists like Greene who dream of committing acts of fascist violence. That’s not a new development. But the fact that the Republican Party embraces and elevates her constitutes an acute danger to democracy.
If what’s on display here were just the extremist nonsense of a fringe figure, it’d be best to simply ignore it. This, however, isn’t just Greene’s extremism - it is increasingly that of the Republican Party itself.
How do we know that Greene isn’t just a crazy outlier? Because the Republican Party doesn’t treat her like one. Neither her extremist views nor her open embrace of this kind of violence-affirming, fascist symbolism gets her in trouble with her GOP colleagues.
Read 10 tweets
17 Sep
These are shocking numbers. Whether or not it’s possible to sustain democracy under the circumstances of the current information environment is one of the key questions of our era - and I’m afraid we need to acknowledge that there’s a very real chance the answer might be no.
Crucially, let’s not mistake these numbers as proof of “brainwashing”. There are limits to the rightwing propaganda machine’s power if it tries to go against the underlying anxieties that are animating conservatives. But it’s highly effective in amplifying those anxieties.
The “brainwashing” approach cannot explain why, for instance, Fox News failed in 2013 to get conservatives onboard with immigration reform. After a few weeks of trying, severe pushback from the base had them going back to demonizing any kind of immigration compromise.
Read 7 tweets
11 Sep
The conservative reaction to the soft vaccine mandate boils down to: “So what if I might be spreading a highly contagious virus that’s killed hundreds of thousands and is devastating everybody’s lives - leave me alone!” The idea that we should all just accept that is bizarre.
We as a society accepted it for far too long, and paid far too high a price for it. It’s been obvious for many months that will have to vaccinate our way out of this pandemic, that we won’t get from a pandemic to an endemic situation unless people get vaccinated. Let’s do it!
America has prioritized the anxieties of an increasingly radicalized minority for far too long - in that way, our public health crisis and our democracy crisis have been closely intertwined, and we need to tackle both.

A more detailed version of that argument in this thread:
Read 4 tweets
10 Sep
“So is this really how it’s going to be?“ @ThePlumLineGS asks in this crucial piece, as GOP candidates are openly casting any potential election losses as illegitimate. The answer, sadly, has to be yes – because this is what the Republican Party has become. Some thoughts: 1/
It is tempting to describe the Republican candidates in @ThePlumLineGS’s piece as fringe outliers: as either deranged Trumpists or as cynical opportunists who simply want to emulate Trump’s approach in an attempt to charm the Trumpian base. But there is more going on here. 2/
Remember that undermining the legitimacy of democratic elections in such blatant fashion does not get these people in trouble within the Republican Party. Why is that? Because many Republican officials and at least half of Republican voters share the underlying ideology. 3/
Read 15 tweets
9 Sep
The thing about these “the cancel mob is coming” pieces is that they simply don’t hold up as empirical analysis. They are extremely interesting, however, as evidence of a pervasive reluctance among elites to accept changing standards of what is / is not acceptable behavior.
I wish someone with a big platform would be honest and self-critical enough to say: “Look, I really benefited from the traditional culture of elite impunity, and I liked the fact that I could say and do pretty much whatever I wanted without facing legal or cultural sanction.”
We could potentially have a more productive discussion about individual perceptions of political and cultural change and what to make of these elite anxieties considering that the power structures that have traditionally defined American life have unfortunately held up fine.
Read 6 tweets

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