Leading Nowhere Profile picture
Sep 28, 2021 25 tweets 11 min read Read on X
Every annual report tells a story.

In small companies, you can read between the lines to get a feel of the management style and business economics.

I take Fredun Pharmaceuticals Ltd (FPL) to illustrate how to go about this (it's not pretty).

Let's go 👇 (1/n)
Please note that the main objective of this review is to get a preliminary understanding without doing a thesis.

It is oriented towards a "quick and dirty" review to decide if you want to dig deeper.

Review financials on a screener website before reading further. (2/n) ImageImageImage
Now, you can already guess Fredun Pharmaceuticals is named after Fredun Medhora. His mother, Dr Daulat Medhora and his father, Nariman Medhora, are the original promoters of the company. Interestingly, Nariman Medhora has stepped down from active involvement in June 2021. (3/n) ImageImageImage
Then we have Dr Daulat Medhora, who seems to have the qualifications and a decent background in the pharma industry. However, she is 76 years old and unlikely to be actively involved for much longer. (4/n) Image
That leaves Fredun Medhora, who does not have a technical or scientific background and his primary qualification is an MBA.

The biography provided in the AR describes the CV of an MBA student, nothing on the contribution or role in the company. (5/n) Image
It is clear this company will primarily be run by Mr Fredun Medhora in the future, which is amply evident from the gradual exit of Nariman Medhora, and the advanced age of Dr Daulat Medhora.

Therefore, we know any investment thesis will be primarily betting on new gen. (6/n)
Given this background, let's start with notice of AGM and see what FPL proposed this year.

First is a special resolution for approving a substantial 125% hike in remuneration for Managing Director and CFO Fredun Medhora. (7/n) Image
Cut a long story short, the resolution & explanatory statement highlight 3 things:

(a) New remuneration is 54L p.a. (previous 24L p.a.)

(b) Subject to Schedule V of CA (due to inadequate profits)

(c) Previous remuneration was approved for 3 years (Sept 2020-2023) (8/n) ImageImage
The proposed remuneration is 27% of profit (Rs 2 Cr), beyond the permissible limits under the Companies Act. This is common in smaller companies, and isn't a strong factor to judge management.

Readers may gauge the merits of the remuneration as we go along. (9/n)
Let's see the other agenda item for AGM - providing for approval to appoint cost auditors for FY21-22.

Interestingly, the remuneration is subject to future "mutual" agreement.

Even in FY19-20, same cost auditor appointed w/o disclosing remuneration. (10/n) ImageImage
U/ S.148 of CA2013, remuneration of cost auditor is required to be approved by members.

However, FPL has taken approval for appointment but left remuneration to be subject to "mutual agreement".

This is an egregious lapse . Opportunity to make some money @SEBI_India! (11/n) Image
A review of past ARs shows a fluctuating trend of audit fees with no fixed remuneration. It w as 3L in 2017, 6.5L in 2018, 2.5L in 2019, 3L in 2020 and 6.5L in 2021. (12/n) ImageImageImageImage
For such elaborate arrangements, related party transactions usually follow.

FPL has large purchases (FY21: Rs 39 Crore) primarily from Fredun Healthcare, related company.

New gen also gets annual 1.1 5 Cr rent + loan on interest

Making profit is tough w/ promoter cuts. (13/n) Image
However, low PAT isn't a significant observation in microcaps and smallcaps, since you are betting primarily on future growth or change in circumstances.

Operating cash flows > reported PAT is a good sign.

Anything that shows efficient cash use is a bonus. (14/n)
FPL has negligible cash flows, generating only 16 lakh in operating cash. Of special note here is the substantial inventory and high trade receivables. Outstanding dues are significantly aged too, though showing some improvement from last fiscal w/ write offs. (15/n) ImageImageImageImage
Poor cashflows generally translate into high debt. There's short term loans, including from related parties. The secured term loans are at astronomical 18% interest!

Apart from no operating cash flow, FPL has substantial interest outgo, which is further funded with debt. (16/n) Image
Here's an interesting thought. If cash flows are zilch and there are high value of related party transactions, why not check the closing balances of related party transactions to see if cash flows to related parties are being prioritized? (17/n)
Financial statements always disclose opening/closing balance for such transactions (check image 1). This disclosure is missing in AR FY20-21 despite the header saying "balances". So you *cannot* ascertain the cash movement between related entities during the fiscal. (18/n) ImageImage
This isn't the only impact of omission. Note 20 says loans from related entities are at "Market Lending Rate" and redirects to further information in related party disclosures (Note 39).

With omission of balances table in note 39, terms of loan are a complete mystery. (19/n) Image
Compliance/regulatory lapses are also relevant for assessing management.

"Other expenses" shows substantial fines/penalties under GST for non-compliance with procedures like timely filing of returns and payment of tax. Res ipsa loquitor - the thing speaks for itself. (20/n) ImageImage
Recently, FPL did a preferential issue to 23 public investors, with highest allotment to Nikhil Vora. The AR FY20-21 specifies him as already the 3rd largest shareholder with 5.85% holding. Interestingly, even new gen promoter doesn't have that much stake in FPL. (21/n) ImageImageImage
Essentially, we have the following observations:

A. New gen pay is sky rocketing
B. Strange arrangement w/ auditors
C. Gaps in financial statements, missing disclosures
D. Poor cash flow with high debt
E. Poor legal compliance
F. Large related party transactions

(22/n)
At the end of this analysis, you have a decently good idea of how FPL is run from a governance perspective.

Next step, if you remain interested, would be to look into the commercial side of things. (23/n)
No smallcap or microcap and sometimes even larger companies are devoid of governance issues.

Having a quick and dirty framework is useful to shortlist companies for further analysis.

Every case has to be evaluated on its own merits. (24/n)
Hope you enjoyed this thread. RT first tweet for greater reach, please.

As always, this is not a recommendation to invest or not to invest into FPL. Just an example to illustrate. (25/n)

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More from @leading_nowhere

Aug 28, 2023
SEBI finally going after the finfluencer-broker nexus. Right time to point out Zerodha founders have tried all along to whitewash their role by acting holier than thou. One of them was caught cheating in an exhibition charity match with Vishwanathan Anand too. Leopard's spots...
So while on one side you have the founders going around 'cautioning' the retail public on trading and speculation, on the other side you have a massive funnel of fraud finfluencers directing traffic your way, driving the thousands of crores in profits. The house always wins.
The funnel relies on psychological manipulation and relies on a layer of separation (finfluencer)...history of speculation has shown that warnings and data rarely work where greed and manipulation are concerned...behave like a saint and just let psychology do the work for you.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 4, 2023
EKI Energy...a story.

Auditor of EKI Energy resigned in Nov'22, stating emphatically there was no dispute with management, and audit for H1FY23 was completed by them w/ clean limited review report.

But in Q3FY23, new auditor Walker Chandiok trashed the financials.

(1/12)

Management has recognised revenue, AGAINST opinion of auditor, in absence of fulfillment of contractual performance obligations!

In polite words, this seems to be fake revenue. 190 crore sales (~10%) and 110 crore (~40%) PAT. Almost half PAT is possibly...non-existent.

(2/12)
Now, EKI has STILL not released Q4FY23 results. It says this is because Walker Chandiok has to re-audit H1FY23 which was done by previous auditor. Seems like a valid reason, except it begs the question - why wasn't re-audit of H1FY23 being done since Nov'22?

(3/12)
Read 12 tweets
May 6, 2022
1/ A good way to contextualize PE ratio, think it as earnings yield:

5x = 20%
10x = 10%
20x = 5%
30x = 3.3%
50x = 2%

As you go down this scale, you're paying increasingly more for growth + durability + intangible assumptions. If assumptions uncertain, how much would you pay?
2/ If you're worried about inflation and interest rates, just remember:

A 10% bond purchased at FV 100 is at 10 PE.
A 5% bond at FV 100 is at 20 PE.

It is a very simple way to analyze how much extra you'd pay for equity if I could give you a safe 10% bond instead?
3/ Yes, we are in equities for the unlimited upside, but once you spend a few years in the market and experience the realities, you will get a razorsharp focus on wanting to pay less and get more.

A steady-state earnings yield analysis is an excellent way to get perspective.
Read 10 tweets
May 4, 2022
Most scenarios, vertically-integrated = better margins, as long as cost of key inputs becomes small fraction of costs eventually.

If KI are 50-60% cost at final stage w/ sharp price hike = business at sole mercy of end-customer w/ demand destruction.

Observe next few quarters.
In this scenario, commodity producer will not budge as many buyers in the market. Person who gets squeezed is the penultimate link in the chain. If end-customer unwilling to absorb full price hike, manufacturer WILL be holding the bag to keep the relationship.
Especially pertinent for exporters and industries where demand is very price sensitive. During benign pricing scenario you can get more efficient with vertical integration and improve realizations. However, when basic commodities roar, you will bear disproportionate impact too.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 15, 2022
(Thread)

Some thoughts on investing in listed family-owned businesses.

Cobbled together from several years of investing in and observing such companies, and also some professional interactions with business owners.

👇
1) There are immense latent capabilities in family-owned businesses. People in business for 30-40 years, building incrementally. Eg. so many companies spent *decades* for 0-100, 5 years for 100-500, and are now aiming 500-5000 in next 5 (not accurate, but you get the point)
2) Most promoters aren't looking to rip off investors. But, they will put themselves first. Why? For promoter, business is his life's work (no matter how small) but for you it is an investment. Always see it from this perspective and differentiate every situation.
Read 17 tweets
Apr 10, 2022
The 6 buckets of information I look at when analysing a company for the first time.

Most of these tend to be small companies with little coverage but with larger competitors.

A thread 👇 (1/14)
A. Assessing Promoters -> 60% holding preferably (not iron rule), either highly educated or very experienced in the business. Preferably minimal related party transactions, no unlisted entities with significant operations. Do not grudge high salary if otherwise clean. (2/14)
B. Assessing Balance Sheet - Looking for a clean, boring unremarkable balance sheet, not a good one. Preferably low historical share dilution (not including bonus). Preferably with only working capital debt. Share warrants in small quantities not a red flag. (3/14)
Read 14 tweets

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