The end of nation-states is coming.
Internet and Blockchain will bankrupt them, by distributing its power to individuals, corporations, supra-national entities, and distributed organizations.
Just at the moment when they need more $ than ever
Thread 🧵
Picture this:
Why? 1. Individuals have + power.
They can access all the info in the world, and reach everybody in the world. The only thing they need is good, catchy ideas.
A single person, Satoshi Nakamoto changed the world with a pseudonym with their Bitcoin paper.
QAnon did the same
Even a random guy like me can come out of nowhere, read scientific papers in his spare time, and write articles in sweatpants that end up read by tens of millions of people and influence the policies of dozens of countries.
Impossible just 20 years ago.
Up till then, it was broadcasters who had the power to dictate thought, and the agenda of broadcasters was heavily influenced by the government.
2. Multinational Companies
As big tech companies grow, they replace lots of local businesses and concentrate their wealth in a few ppl
Well exemplified by the travel industry
You can see the shift in the tone companies use.
And the tech they build is going to keep undermining their power.
3. Blockchain eliminates gatekeepers through decentralization
How did it work until now? The gov was always the ultimate gatekeeper
But Blockchain—the tech, and more importantly, its culture—kill this. You don't need a central gatekeeper when the community can achieve a better outcome with less red tape and corruption.
All will take away power away from the nation-state
As they do, a new class emerges. This is the way we should understand the Somewheres vs. Anywheres.
The Somewheres are bound to the nation-state. The anywheres aren't.
This will be accelerated by the emergence of the Lingua Franca that will remain at the top forever: English (unless we invent quickly a reliable universal auto-translator) unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/should-every…
This loss of sovereignty happens just at the time when the Nation-State goes broke because its income goes down due to corporate taxation, individual taxation, and money printing limitation:
1. Corporate taxation is much harder when companies are fully remote.
It's easy to tax a mine.
It's harder to tax a pharma company that can move its revenue around the world. At least they have a headquarters.
What if you eliminate the headquarters? remote work does this
This is how we should be reading Biden's attempt to fix a global minimum tax to all governments. But so far only 130/195 have agreed. And look who disagrees:
Ireland is the 2nd richest country in the EU per capita. That comes mostly from their corporate tax strategy. Do you think Ireland is eager to lose their competitive advantage?
Oh, the EU needs unanimity on this vote.
We'll see what happens in October.
2. Individual taxation
Becomes much harder when there's remote work and ppl can shop around to the most compelling tax system.
Countries have noticed this and are competing for their taxes.
Obviously, taxing is even harder when ppl start using cryptocurrencies.
Crypto has another impact on govs' financing: they can't print money as much
3. Money Printing Reduced
Govs have been pretty happy printing money to finance themselves
Which has made lots of people rich from the stock market... by making poor those who held cash through inflation
As a result BTC is growing
The more cryptocurrencies ppl hold, the less countries can print money and hope it doesn't lead to inflation
And costs are increasing due to the demographic ticking bomb.
1. We don't have children
2. But we live much longer
3. As a result, every retiree is supported by fewer and fewer workers
4. So the govt debt increases
Which means more interest payments... while costs of old age benefits grow. Today, 20% of gov spending is dedicated to that. What will happen when it doubles?
So:
A. Less power for nation-states
B. At a time when their income dwindles
C. But also, when their costs increase
--> Nation-states will go bankrupt. Something else will replace them.
We shouldn't be surprised. This is what happened to the Church in 1500 when the printing press appeared. Or to chiefdoms when writing appeared.
Two shocking events from last week unmasked eco-terrorists disguised as environmentalists:
1. The Philippines banned golden rice, condemning thousands of children to blindness and death 2. German Greens lied to closed nuclear plants
This is what happened and how to reverse it:
1. Golden Rice Ban
Golden Rice has added vitamin A over 100,000 children every year and turns blind over 100,000 more
Golden Rice has additional vitamin A, and eliminates that problem
But Greenpeace got a Filipino court to ban it. Why?
The court says "there's not enough evidence". But there is, proven by safety tests from countries like the US, Canada, and NZ. It is just like rice, except with more Vit A
You think housing prices will keep going up because you've seen it all your life. But this is a historic anomaly that is likely to reverse soon: Prices might start shrinking in many places.
This thread is the case against investing in housing:
Our perception of real estate prices is extremely biased.
Most ppl alive today have only experienced them since WW2, but that's a completely anomalous period!
Prices before did not grow as much. Here are real prices for 14 countries
What happened?
Supply and demand
The last 80 years have seen a growth of housing demand never seen before. At the same time, supply has been shrinking consistently. These trends are all reverting now. Let's look at them in detail:
Why do Jamaicans speak English, when most of its neighboring countries don’t?
Why was the pirate capital there?
Why is it underwater now?
Why did pirates drink rum?
Why are most Jamaicans black?
This map of shipping lanes today gives you a hint:
Jamaica is in the middle of all these shipping lanes, but isn't a major shipping hub today
This is not new: Back in Spanish colonial times, Jamaica was not in the main trade routes either
Spain's main goods were silver from Mexico and Peru and luxury goods from China
Spaniards gathered them in Panama, Portobello, Cartagena, and Veracruz
Ships arrived from Spain to Puerto Rico and left via Habana (Cuba)
Jamaica was not a main port
Why?
This machine makes fuel from thin air
It's carbon neutral
And it does this at record-low costs
Energy and the environment will look completely different in 10 years
Here's why: 🧵
The problem with fossil fuels today is not that we burn them, it's where they come from: They had been locked in the ground for millions of years and now they're back in the atmosphere. The pbm is the "fossil", not the "fuels"
If we make fuels out of thin air, we can burn them
How can we do it?
Natural gas is mostly methane (CH4)
You just need some energy to force some carbon (C) to bing to hydrogen (H)
Carbon can come from air (CO2)
Hydrogen can come from water (H2O)
The energy can come from the sun (solar panels)
This video of the Rock of Gibraltar gives an intuition for why some areas of the world have deserts next to rainforests
What's happening here?
How can you use that to predict where there will be deserts or rainforests?🧵
Look at the map below: In some places, deserts and lush forests are side by side. Why?
The mountain chains between them
The effect is called the Rain Shadow:
• Air comes wet from the sea
• As it hits mountains, it goes up
• Higher altitudes are cooler, so the air cools
• That condenses water (like the droplets on you Coke glass)
• Rain falls
• Air is dry past the mountains
Egyptian pyramids are not where they're supposed to be. Why?
Why is Cairo, the biggest African city, where it is today?
Alexandria?
Why do over 100M Egyptians live so densely clustered?
These questions all have the same answer. Look:
1st map: population density
2nd map: satellite
The "flower" is the inhabited part of Egypt, which is basically the Nile
It makes sense: outside of the Nile, Egypt is like the rest of the Sahara desert, an inhospitable hell for humans