We’ve just released new COVID modeling. We’ll take you through it in eight tweets. You can get the deck here: covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u… #COVID19ON
Slides 3/4/5: We’re walking a narrow ledge. Positivity down but not consistently across ages & 19/34 PHUs have growing cases. We’re ok for now, but we have no wiggle room. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
Slides 6 & 7: Vaccines are our most important weapon & we have to reach more Ontarians. But until vaxx rates are much higher, the combo of current vaxx rates & public health measures are helping to control cases. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
Slides 8: It’s time to keep our kids safe! Cases are rising under 18s, espy 5-11 who aren’t yet vaccinated. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
Slides 9 & 10: Our projections. (Our high scenario simply shows how fragile the current situation is, i.e., cases & ICU would rise quickly if we loosen up a lot. But we don’t expect that right now) #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
Slides 11: Why is ON hospitalization less than ON other places that also have high vacc coverage? We’ve kept enough public health measures in place to keep some control on contacts. That protects us until more Ontarians are vaccinated. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
Slides 9-12: So far, hospitals are managing & ICU occ. is flat; but it’s v tough to predict infection rates or hospitalization for the next 3 months – lots remains in flux. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
Slides 13 & 14: One model looks @London-Middlesex (just as an example of a mid-size ON city). We can stop a surge at the ICU by keeping some controls on contacts between people. But if the ICU surges, it’ll likely be younger than last time. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
Slides 15 & 16: It’s not just about immediate illness. Long-COVID (post C-19 cond’n) is real for 10% of infected & will have real effects on the health care system. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
The bottom line; We’re doing well for now. But if we want to control cases, hospitalizations & deaths we MUST increase vacc rates again & keep current public health measures to limit contacts until many more (& younger) Ontarians are vaxxed. #COVID19ON covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/u…
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