India coal stockpiles at power plants are the lowest in four years & so it has to choose whether to import expensive coal or have blackouts.
What is happening in China is not a China story but regional & global.
Winter is coming. 🥶🇮🇳🇨🇳
And as my Indian followers pointed out: India (and like much of Southeast Asia), winter is actually good for electricity demand, as in it would go down because cooler temperatures require less cooling & not much heating.
The same cannot be said for China.
I'm pretty proud of the US regarding our sources of electricity. We got the most clean fossil fuel - natural gas, which is seen as a good complement to renewables as renewables cannot serve all the energy needs for now.
Coal < renewables in the US as a source of electricity.
Yay for the US source of electricity. Pretty even mix of things & we are rather energy independent & use more renewables vs coal 🇺🇸.
Let's talk about what happened to renewables globally this year: climate change.
The very thing to fight it is susceptible to it. Let me explain.
I know Greta doesn't like the US but can I say we're pretty good if you compare us to emerging markets.
😇🇺🇸I'd say we're angels of electricity looking at the share of renewables.
Anyway, so u know hydro is key for renewables right (#1 source for China for example).
So?
The issue is this: renewables (hydro, wind, solar) depend on the weather.
Hydro by definition requires water. And WATER is a resource that is getting pretty scarce or UNDEPENDABLE due to CLIMATE CHANGE.
Have you heard of droughts in the US & Brazil? 🇺🇸🇧🇷
So as a result of climate change, leading to more volatile weather, which we must fight by doing more renewables, we actually got less energy from renewables.
As in, hydro got dried out by extreme droughts. Brazil gets tons of it from hydro but no good due to severe droughts.
Here is a summary of hydro in emerging markets and Europe. In China, hydro was up but varies by region. Sichuan got lower output.
India got lower hydro output. In Europe it is up but Turkey, which invested in more hydro, was impacted by droughts & output fell -30%
Volatile!
Key charts on hydro down in key markets. Anyway, hydro is not the greenest of renewables (solar is better & less disruptive to the environment due to building of dams etc).
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This article in the FT doesn't make any sense. The author argues that Modi fails to create job for low-skilled people, esp labor-intensive manufacturing. It also faults Modi for its high-end growth (services, high-tech, infra, etc)
But then it ends with saying, well, don't bother to even develop manufacturing and just work on service exports.
Btw, all the critiques of India makes sense. The issue I have with Rajan and also Congress is their solutions.
They don't have one. Literally. Rajan tells India to forget about trying to do manufacturing & focuses on services.
India exports a lot of services. Manufacturing is the weak spot, not services!!! And if u want a lot of jobs, u need labor-intensive manufacturing.
A country with such a large population needs to growth via all sectors - services, manufacturing, agriculture etc. You can't leapfrog development & go to services.
India & the Philippines have tried that. Not working & hence need to include manufacturing & infrastructure building.
Who likes higher fuel prices in Asia??? Well, no one except Indonesia and Malaysia and by that I mean exporters.
The biggest deficit as a share of GDP goes to Thailand but mostly in LNG. Second is South Korea.
Obvs this is as a share of GDP. Higher fuel costs = higher import costs = someone has to pay for it & eg higher inflation or higher fiscal costs.
Who likes higher food prices? Well, a few - Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and India. Obvs this is EXPORTERS only who gain. EM has high food as a share of consumption basket. But net food exporters have levers to pull. They can BAN exporting of food.
Who is most vulnerable? The Philippines. South Korea imports a lot too.
Putting food and fuel together as a share of GDP: Who is most exposed?
Well, South Korea and the Philippines. KRW doesn't like this news.
PHP doesn't like it. One caveat is that SK is much richer so can afford it more than say PH where this will hurt more.
Did you know that South Korea exports more to the US now than it does to China?
Actually, it isn't alone. A lot of Asian countries, due to supply chain reshuffling and also geopolitics and industrial policies, are exporting now more to US than China.
Why is South Korea doing more trade with a country far away than a country next door?
First, growth of exports to the US is faster than exports to China. In fact, China hasn't been importing much more and it is Korea that has been importing more from China for goods such as intermediate goods etc.
This has raised a big concern in Korea that China is a competitor & it's hard for SK to compete with its industrial policy and subsidies.
And so South Korea has 1 lever it can pull that is better than China - GEOPOLITICS. South Korea is an ally to the US. And as a country w/ a US FTA, it is being favored.
Whether it's the Chips Act or the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the whole point is to exclude China.
Happy International Women's Day! First, I think we should celebrate women everyday (& men). Anyway, here is a thread about women and the labor force participation with a focus on India. Ready? Let's go!
India's Womenomics? Modi’s Decade of Formalisation of Jobs Marches Forward👈
By 2030 or roughly the end of Modi's 3rd term should he win, 1 out of 5 working age people will be Indian on earth.
To transform that demographic change into dividend, we need a lot of jobs. For India to grow >7% sustainably, we need to do to have more jobs. Let's talk about it
India women labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the LOWEST in Asia. It is at 37% according to the latest labor survey, which is already a lot higher than before.
The average in Asia is 63% w/ Australian, Japan, Vietnam the highest. People talk about womenomics for Japan but
Indonesia elects a new president in a week. The leading candidate is riding high on Jokonomics, or the continuation of his policy & popularity, as Jokowi's eldest son is VP.
Prabowo promises 8% average GDP growth or Jokonomics. How realistic & what is Jokonomics anyway?
While people believe that Prabowo is the best bet of doing more of what popular Jokowi has done for Indonesia in the past decade & he promises the highest growth, Jokowi 10-year only produced 4.2% GDP growth on average. Stripping out 2020 (Covid), it's 4.9%. No where near 8% 👈
Indonesia elects a new president next week to replace Jokowi. The leading candidate - Prabowo - is riding the president's coat tail as many hope that he is the best hope for continuation. But what is Jokonomics exactly? From 2014 to 2023, Indonesia grew on average 4.2% per yr👈.
If we strip out 2020, which economy contracted, then under Jokowi, the economy grew 4.9% on average (4.2% if we don't strip it out).
So that's sub 5%. In fact, GDP barely deviates from 5% level. So why do people think that Prabowo is the key to escape the middle income trap?
Pres Jokowi's biggest accomplishments come from the fiscal side. Indonesia got investment grade in 2017. By weaning Indonesia slowly off expensive energy subsides, the expenditure side was contained. And with the commodity boom, Indonesia fiscal positions were leaner than most.