Thread by @ZiadFazel

#COVID19AB Video Analysis
From CMOH presentation to PCN 13 Sep 2021

Sorry - no scorecard for a couple of days - have to put that aside to get caught up on this, which has become urgent in chaotic weeks since.

I wanted to follow up on this thread on Deceptive Framing. 👇

https://twitter.com/ZiadFazel/status/1437800541807996930

In my 14 Sep thread:
• I quoted @cfrangou 13 Sep thread,
• who did some prescient reporting on CMOH's presentation to the Primary Care Network at 6pm on that night of Monday 13 September
• including the video, which was taken PRIVATE the next morning.

alberta.ca/primary-health…

I don't know who ordered it to be taken private: PCN, CMOH, or both. No explanation AFAIK.

Taking it private put more attention on @cspotweet video clips, and on my thread.

Over 314K views, over 7% of Alberta's population.

I'm not a Kardashian.

All y'all are suspicious...

Thankfully, someone re-uploaded it. To his Public Interest argument I add:
• based on documents CMOH (finally) made public on 3 Sep
• CMOH on Past, Current & Future Health Policy
• 4th Wave is killing over 100 Albertans/week - grotesquely above 🇨🇦 avg

My 14 Sep thread on Deceptive Framing covered maybe 1/10th of the issues I saw. 8 tweets long.

There's more deception in the frame, and more in the picture being painted inside.

I have many pages of notes. So this may be a long thread I add to over coming days to finish.

Before I continue, I just want to remind everyone I am speaking out as a citizen in a democracy, only for myself. Not any other organization.

I am expressing my bona fide belief, based on publicly available information I nearly always link in the thread.

I see no reason why PCN took video private. There is nothing there the public should not see - in fact it would help us understand better.

Eg: excellent conversation btwn Dr Rick Ward & Dr Christine Luelo, then her presentation.

Around 27:55 in video.

The whole video is good, see it all while it is still up 😮, but make sure you see CMOH presentation starting about 1:11:43 in.

BTW, that is not Dr Hinshaw in the video preview, that is the first presenter.

I should share the agenda slide for the whole webinar ("video") so you can navigate all the good presentations, including the one of high public interest from Alberta CMOH Dr Hinshaw.

I might step away from time to time - my Mom wants me to put on my jammies and brush my teeth - but I will finish one more section hopefully by 11pm and then call it a night.

Homework you should do before we get together again: download & PRINT these 2 PDFs from AH website:
• Evidence Summary (spin) around June models to justify 1 July Reopening & 28 July cuts to TTI
• Updated Modelling ~2 Sep which CMOH presented to PCN

alberta.ca/covid-19-alber…

Back to Dr Hinshaw's presentation.

Make sure you've seen it (incl interactions with host) before you read further. Form your own impressions before I frame it myself.

Don't skip ahead to the slides - the "Thanks for talking to me guys" charm offensive is the most rehearsed.

She says doctors have been asking her "Why did you do this?", then gives her defence/spin of why she recommended:
• dropping all safety measures on 1 July
• cutting TTI in a blindside to Public & AMA on 28 July, effective 29 July*

* Led to @jvipondmd kicking off @PopAlberta

What struck me was her evasive language that takes limited, token accountability. It doesn't even specify what she regrets.

She claims she feels responsible for the narrative around her use of the word "endemic" at the end of July, and

"I deeply regret how that's played out."

It immediately took me back to the Todd Bertuzzi presentation conference after he fractured Steve Moore's neck by assaulting him from behind.



Evasive words, passive voice, ducking responsibility, never saying that the harm was = language of abusers.

With Bertuzzi, these words stood out, because he's not familiar with them. He had to be coached by lawyers to evade liability.

At one point, skilled lawyer & Canucks GM Brian Burke stepped up to coach Bertuzzi to say he's pleased to learn that Moore would make a full recovery.

Background for that incident, because it has many parallels to what Dr Hinshaw is doing now with COVID-19.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Todd_Bert…

This was Bertuzzi's only serious incident. He's not familiar with the words of abusers, he's using "evade accountability" words from lawyers.

After 3 avoidable waves, with this 4th #intentionallycruelwave wave worse than the previous 3 waves, Dr Hinshaw has become very practiced with these words of abusers.

You see them over and over.

alberta.ca/stats/covid-19…

I'm not a psychologist or psychiatrist, but I'm more familiar with dealing with abusers than most. I've learned a lot from that.

I'm not amateur-diagnosing the CMOH, just noticing similar behaviours.

And suggesting you read this about Denial.

counsellingresource.com/features/2008/…

Dr Hinshaw cannot deny Severe Outcomes of 4th Wave any more.

So she gives an "analogy" of caring for the elderly, who had "proxy decision makers" with their own "beliefs and values".

Now she says Alberta is her patient, and elected officials are the "proxy decision makers."

Yet she still signed those Public Health Orders.

She still oversaw modelling & evidence gathering in June which led to HER Recommendations, which according to Premier, were approved in full by cabinet on 8 July.

If opposed to them, she would not sign.

globalnews.ca/news/8081586/a…

Again, without attempting to diagnose, and only noticing similar behaviours, I suggest you read this about Trivializing or Minimizing.

counsellingresource.com/features/2009/…

Dr Hinshaw does not take responsibility for her recommendations to lift virtually all public health measures on 1 July, causing this disaster.

Nor of trying to dismantle TTI infrastructure on 28 July.

She feels responsible for the misunderstood "narrative" around "endemic".

K, that's all for tonight. Way past my 11pm desired finish.

More tomorrow.

Back. Let's continue with Dr Hinshaw's excuses before she puts on her slides.

Paraphrasing:
• all of us Western CMOH felt it was time to reopen
• Certainly PHAC said with 75% 1st Dose and 20% 2nd Dose we'd be good to go against Delta
• and experience Delta similar to UK

OK, let's unpack this carefully. PHAC *had* suggested in early May (before Delta soared in Canada) a reopening based on:
• 1st Dose 75% of eligible (~ 64% of all) population
• 2nd dose 20% of eligible (~17%)

Pro Tip: Use 85% ratio to convert from 12+ to full population.

However, on 16 June, a world-class biologist who happens to work in Calgary warned that was not enough for Delta.

cbc.ca/news/canada/ne…

"'Vaccination is good in that it makes the wood less dry if new sparks come, but it won't stop it by itself,' says @GosiaGasperoPhD."

🧐

@GosiaGasperoPhD Who else gave this warning around 15 June about 75/20 not being enough for Delta?
• Dr Theresa Tam, Canada's Chief Medical Officer
• Dr Mike Ryan, WHO emergencies program head
• Lancet using Scottish Data
• British statistics
• They're UK, right?

globalnews.ca/news/7954768/c…

Maybe Dr Hinshaw didn't notice them, because she was busy looking at her team's secret models, which were based on data as of 7 June.

They were purportedly based on Delta variant, and assumed max vax this summer of:
• 1 dose 63% full pop
• 2 dose 60%

alberta.ca/assets/documen…

Let's check Actuals v 63/60 Assumption

alberta.ca/stats/covid-19…

7 June 58/13 (when modelled)
1 July 62/38 (full reopening)
28 July 64/55 (TTI dismantled)
1 Sep 66/60 (end of summer)

1st dose estimate close, 2nd dose not reached until summer over, 4th wave raging, school starts.

Hmmm. Why didn't Vaccination reach CMOH's assumed levels fast enough?

Let's look at that June model kept secret until the week before this PCN Presentation.

Gahh! 😲

Assumed daily vax rate
• Low 37K
• Medium 50K
• High 100K

Hey, but 10,000 sim runs, so it must be right.

I can't even fit CMOH's 100K/day "High" vax assumption on Alberta Health's own graph without running into the graph above it.

Highest daily vax EVER was 20 May at 81K.

Unless this is what the CMOH Modelling team meant by - or were experiencing - when they wanted a High.

Let's paraphrase this excuse by CMOH:
• I did what PHAC recommended in reopening at 64/17 of full pop
• aka 75% 1st dose / 20% 2nd dose of eligible
• So it's not my fault

Note: "eligible pop" is fine for vax campaign targets.

But in AB, that leaves out 661K vulnerable kids.

So that is the CMOH excuse for Reopening, which I hope you can see is bogus in several ways.

But what about 28 July and the dismantling of TTI, with the first half effective THE NEXT DAY?

I think that is CMOH's first use of the "endemic" smokescreen.

alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI…

Was she following Health Canada advice on Reopening?

Shockingly, No.

Superb guidance for public health professionals here.

Your homework for tomorrow is to read at least the two I highlighted.

canada.ca/en/public-heal…

Maybe the ethics one too.

canada.ca/en/public-heal…

K, I'm bagged. This could be a fulltime job, and I'm trying to do it after dinner.