Chris Billington Profile picture
Oct 1, 2021 6 tweets 5 min read Read on X
NSW R_eff as of October 1st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.91 ± 0.04

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
NSW R_eff as of October 1st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.91 ± 0.04

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
R_eff in LGAs of concern* vs the rest of NSW (*all of Penrith included):

LGAs of concern: R_eff = 0.80 ± 0.04
Rest of NSW: R_eff = 0.96 ± 0.05

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
The Hunter Region: R_eff = 1.52 ± 0.20

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
Expected numbers if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Sat: 820 702—945
Sun: 795 668—929
Mon: 770 631—913
Tue: 744 603—897
Wed: 718 568—880
Thu: 692 535—856
Fri: 665 505—841

Halving time is 36.1 days.
Note that these projections do not take into account upcoming easing of restrictions. If the trend changes as a result of easing, the projections will also change once this is reflected in case numbers, but not in advance.

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More from @Chrisbilbo

Feb 22, 2022
NZ R_eff as of February 22nd with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.11 ± 0.11

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html
NZ R_eff as of February 22nd with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.11 ± 0.11

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html
Auckland: R_eff = 1.98 ± 0.11

NZ excluding Auckland: R_eff = 2.54 ± 0.17

(Cases shown on a log scale)
Read 4 tweets
Feb 21, 2022
NZ R_eff as of February 21st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.21 ± 0.12

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html
NZ R_eff as of February 21st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.21 ± 0.12

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html
Auckland: R_eff = 2.15 ± 0.13

NZ excluding Auckland: R_eff = 2.42 ± 0.18

(Cases shown on a log scale)
Read 4 tweets
Feb 20, 2022
NZ R_eff as of February 20th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.48 ± 0.13

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html ImageImage
NZ R_eff as of February 20th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.48 ± 0.13

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html ImageImage
Auckland: R_eff = 2.36 ± 0.15

NZ excluding Auckland: R_eff = 2.84 ± 0.21

(Cases shown on a log scale) ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Jan 9, 2022
VIC R_eff as of January 9th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.96 ± 0.10

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic
VIC R_eff as of January 9th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.96 ± 0.10

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic
Cases in VIC if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Mon: 28281 25903—30742
Tue: 30939 28189—33797
Wed: 33482 30331—36691
Thu: 35707 32263—39301
Fri: 37606 33864—41473
Sat: 39006 35068—43041
Sun: 39862 35846—43962

Doubling time is 5.2 days.

#COVID19Vic
Read 4 tweets
Jan 8, 2022
NSW R_eff as of January 9th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.41 ± 0.08

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
NSW R_eff as of January 9th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.41 ± 0.08

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
R_eff in Greater Sydney vs rest of New South Wales:

Greater Sydney: R_eff = 1.85 ± 0.09
NSW excluding Greater Sydney: R_eff = 2.32 ± 0.16

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
Read 6 tweets
Jan 8, 2022
TAS R_eff as of January 8th with daily cases. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.74 ± 0.42

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_TAS.html
TAS R_eff as of January 8th with daily cases. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.74 ± 0.42

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_TAS.html
Cases in TAS if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Sun: 1521 1136—1942
Mon: 1787 1319—2300
Tue: 2082 1523—2702
Wed: 2404 1737—3146
Thu: 2746 1967—3616
Fri: 3096 2196—4081
Sat: 3432 2426—4534

Doubling time is 3.4 days.
Read 4 tweets

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