Thread by @Chrisbilbo

NSW R_eff as of October 1st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.91 ± 0.04

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

NSW R_eff as of October 1st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.91 ± 0.04

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in LGAs of concern* vs the rest of NSW (*all of Penrith included):

LGAs of concern: R_eff = 0.80 ± 0.04
Rest of NSW: R_eff = 0.96 ± 0.05

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

The Hunter Region: R_eff = 1.52 ± 0.20

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

Expected numbers if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Sat: 820 702—945
Sun: 795 668—929
Mon: 770 631—913
Tue: 744 603—897
Wed: 718 568—880
Thu: 692 535—856
Fri: 665 505—841

Halving time is 36.1 days.

Note that these projections do not take into account upcoming easing of restrictions. If the trend changes as a result of easing, the projections will also change once this is reflected in case numbers, but not in advance.