Thread by @althecat

This short thread shows how cyclonic storms in the tropical Atlantic affect/drive the weather in Europe. Major Hurricane Sam is bottom left.

Its outflows - atmospheric moisture created and projected into the jet streams 11-18kms up - are already reaching Western Europe.

Major Hurricane Sam is forecast to remain a hurricane until it reaches very northerly latitudes (in line with the France), and then continue as a strong extra-tropical cyclonic storm through Tuesday-Wednesday next week.

This animation shows the past 24 hours over Western Europe. The jet-stream outflows from U.S./Canadian storms and Hurricane Sam can be seen arriving at the bottom. From the north cold northerly jet-streams are colliding with these over the UK.

And here we see the rest of Europe into Central Asia, were there are further Arctic air flows heading south.

Looking forward this is today's full 10-Day @ECMWF solution in terms of PWAT (precipitable water/energy).

And here is the GFS solution. Which as you can see is similar but different.

All solutions result in significant amount of rain. Here are four different 10 day total rainfall model solutions (though till 11th October) from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC and Access G models.

To conclude this forecast, a GEFS 7 day moving total rainfall anomaly forecast tells us in percentage terms how much the forecast rains differs from rainfall expectations at this time of year in Europe.

/ENDS

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