TLDR: two epidemics really - one in under 18s (and their parents) which is bad and getting worse and the other in everyone else which is getting better.
First - vaccine uptake in 12-15 year olds in England hasn't really started. With such high rates in teens right now this feels like a missed opportunity :-/
1/12
Looking at cases by date of test for each home nation, England and Wales are going up and NI and Scotland coming down. NI seems to be plateauing though.
England and Wales might be peaking (for now at least) 2/12
Positivity rates are hard to interpret right now... PHE surveillance shows positivity rates in symptomatic people is dropping a lot...
BUT there is also a big surge in rhinovirus (a cold) - with similar symptoms to Covid. 3/12
So if you feel grotty (sore throat, cough, runny nose, headaches) - it might well be this circulating cold OR Covid. Please do a Covid test to be sure!
4/12
So where are the cases? Central and Southern Scotland, most of Wales & central NI have high cases.
In England, cases are are higehest in Midlands and North.
Graph from @TravellingTabby 5/12
And who? 10-14 yrs way out in front, followed by older teens & 5-9 year olds. Next biggest group (& only other rising group) are their parents' generation - 30-59 yr olds.
A year ago we had big uni spike. Will we see it again? *hopefully* not with vax & prev infections. 6/12
And it's *not* just more testing of teens. ONS infection survey (always a few days behind cases) reported 4.6% of (randomly sampled) secondary school children tested positive week to 25 Sept. 1 in 21 children.
This is higher than it's ever been (just under 4% in late Dec).
7/12
Cases in 20 somethings dropping a lot and very low now - reaping the benefits of vaccination + some protection from previous infection too in unvaccinated. 8/12
Hospitalisations similar. Number of people in hospital falling in every nation now (good) 9/12
The drop is mainly driven by declines in 18-84 yr olds. The only age group where hospital admissions are significantly climbing now (although low in absolute nums) are 6-17 year olds - school age kids.
1,744 6-17 yr olds have been admitted with Covid since 1 July. 10/12
The biggest hotspot right now is Kettering - over 6% of their 10-14 year olds tested positive in the last week!
Rates in 40-49 yr olds are higher than they've ever been...
It should peak soon in kids, but at the cost of so many infections... just as vax is starting. 11/12
should have said *relatively* very low. 200/100K/week still quite high!
We should have kept protections in schools. We should restore them now! Masks & contact tracing in secondary schools... Ventilation! Where are the promised CO2 monitors? And the support to act on their readings if too high? Govt has had months to prepare & done so little. 12/12
PS on getting a PCR test with symptoms that are not the "classic (outdated) triad" of temp, cough, loss of smell/taste (so e.g. sore throat, runny nose, headache) -> can get one after positive LFD test, or through logging yr symptoms on the Zoe symptom tracker app.
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Quick thread on current Covid situation in England and Long Covid.
I have Thoughts about the Inquiry Report published yesterday but am still trying to organise them.
TLDR: high Covid levels remain, Long Covid remains 1/11
This wave is not over. While the number of admissions with Covid remains lower than the autumn/winter waves, it has now remained highsh for several weeks.
This means there are a lot of people out there getting sick - and having their work, plans and holidays disrupted. 2/11
Scottish wastewater data to 9 July shows a sharp decrease, suggesting that prevalence might be on its way down.
Obviously Scotland and England can have different dynamics, but it’s the best we’ve got as long as England refuses to analyse its own wastwater. 3/11
THREAD: Given tomorrow's election, I've been thinking about our nation's (poor) health, the wider determinants of health and how these have worsened and what it means for policy....
TLDR: worrying only about NHS & social care is missing the point
let's dive in... 1/25
The UK has a health problem. After steady gains in life expectancy for decades, it flatlined during the austerity years and fell for the first time this century with the Covid pandemic.
The number of people out of work for long term sickness is near record levels. 2/25
There are huge inequalities between rich & poor. Boys born in the most deprived areas can expect to die almost 10 years earlier than their peers in the least deprived areas.
Even worse, they can expect to spend 18 fewer years of their life in good health (52 vs 70 years) 3/25
As ever, I am getting lots of pushback.
Here is a compilation of the European countries I've found with recent wastewater data. Some are going up a bit, some down a bit, some are flat, none are anywhere near previous peaks.
I can't see anything here to be panic anyone. 1/3
I can't find the dashboard for Spain, but others saying it is in a wave. Perhaps it is. England has just had one - the last data we had (a couple of weeks ago from Bob Hawkins) looked as if our wave had peaked.
So, I'm not seeing reason to think things are terrible here! 2/3
Yes there are new variants growing right now. They are not growing faster than JN.1 grew in December and that wave did not end up as bad as feared.
Clearly it remains true that Covid is NOT a seasonal disease (unlike Flu and RSV)
3/3
Quick thread on the Astra Zeneca (AZ) covid vaccine since it's been in the news today.
TLDR there isn't a new "smoking gun", the AZ vax was one of first and cheapest, it saved millions of lives globally, there are better vax out there now, adapted to new variants 1/9
the AZ vaccine was one of the first approved at the end of 2020, cheaper than Pfizer, and - importantly - easier to administer in lower resource settings as it didn't require super low temperatures for storage 2/9
In most countries it was first rolled out in older adults. As it was rolled out in younger adults, a *very rare*, serious, side effect was noticed - it could cause deadly blood clots
This was spotted quickly and studied. Vax monitoring did its job. 3/9
A short thread on why this is not a scary chart and why all the evidence suggests that there is not much Covid around right now. 1/6
the above chart is recorded covid hospital admissions / reported covid cases. It is close to 100% now *because basically only hospitals can report cases since Feb 2024*
It is to do with changes in case reporting and NOT hospital testing
2/6