Dr Noor Bari Profile picture
Oct 2, 2021 15 tweets 4 min read Read on X
CDC defines influenza as an epidemic disease. Even though it has been around for ages, and is never truly gone from the earth, it comes and goes in waves. COVID-19 will likely be similar.

Endemic illness stays at a constant level roughly.

cdc.gov/flu/about/inde…
I don’t think you can just decide to call something endemic at an arbitrary point in time… it has to show some characteristics of steady rate of disease.
I hope we don’t chose to allow COVID-19 to be at very high endemic levels, or have large epidemics. Would be better if it was sporadic outbreaks. Much safer.
In fact, even at high “endemic” levels there is evidence of epidemic outbreaks of different strains emerging and outcompeting each other…
Things endemic doesn’t mean…

Mild.
Everything will be alright.
You can’t control it.
Back to normal.
Malaria is an endemic disease.

There is an elimination program to control it.

Endemic does not mean “Do not eliminate.

who.int/teams/global-m…
“This vision will be achieved progressively by countries eliminating malaria from their territories and implementing effective measures to prevent re-establishment of transmission.”

Sound familiar?
End TB strategy.

Endemic to many parts of the world, according to WHO, TB should be eliminated.

who.int/teams/global-t…
Some thoughts on chicken pox, also endemic to many parts of the world, possibly slated for elimination.

medicalnewstoday.com/articles/23167…
Each of these diseases is different, and needs different strategies.

TB is airborne slow, latent, hidden, has animal reservoirs. Vaccine partially effective.

Malaria, insect borne but no animal reservoir.

Chicken pox, airborne but vaccine susceptible.
We have not let “endemic” get in the way of planning disease control before, and despite difficulties, infectious disease specialists haven’t thrown the towel in before.

The word endemic has been used inappropriately to mean the public should stop harassing the government.
COVID-19 is still an epidemic disease in most countries.

It is a serious multi system disease, and requires control.

Declaring it “endemic” makes absolutely no difference to that.
If your government or medical officer is telling you that your country/region has endemic SARS… just say “Yes, and what is the plan to control it?”

Because that’s the normal response to a serious endemic disease.
I am so glad that I am not the only one that can see this.

Endemic COVID-19 is a mess.

Just because a disease is endemic, does not mean you can forget about controlling it. It will mess up the economy whether you like it or not.

#TargetingZero🦠
#EndemicCOVID19 will eat your healthcare system and spit out the pips.

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More from @NjbBari3

Oct 3
Do other colds, flus and similar viruses cause problems with the brain, heart, gut, autoimmunity etc?

Yes.

But they are already baked in to our baseline statistics, and COVID doesn’t just add to this in a simple way. It’s synergising… it’s causing its own impact and facilitating others.
The best analogy I can come up with is that we had a curry, it had lots of different flavours of problems, and then we added two heaped tablespoons of chilli to it…

It’s affected the whole mix.
Sometimes people discuss “virus interference”… with one virus priming the immune system, so another virus meets us with our defences already up… thus causing a less severe illness…

However C19 has a medium to long term negative impact overall.

It’s not an immune booster.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 28
I said “oh no…”

They said “oh no… what?”

“XEC is here”

“Why do you care if XEC is here? You just wear a respirator and carry on as normal.”

“Why do I care? Maybe because all of the kids under the age of five are completely unprotected from it… ->
Maybe because all of the elderly are wandering about without a mask on now because they either think they have robust hybrid immunity, or their doctor doesn’t wear one so they won’t either…
Maybe because I need people too… not just socially, but literally… I can’t run the universe… it’s actually quite hard when everyone is sick…
Read 5 tweets
Sep 6
I don’t believe it is the fault of any kid that goes to school for infecting their parent or grandparents.

It was the grown ups responsibility to put in place the reasonable expectations for disease control in school.

Kids. We failed you… and I am so very sorry for your loss.
This happened to a kid we know that brought delta home from daycare. Her mum died.
It is an unreasonable expectation for any child to fight this alone… in environments where they may be the only one in a mask.
Read 7 tweets
Aug 21
Warning.

Some of the top schools in the country are encouraging mask use coming up to exams and the end of year 12.

And the kids are wearing them.

You want a competitive ATAR, do what Olympic athletes and the highest achieving kids in the country do.
It’s not anywhere near 100% use… but it’s a large number…
You won’t see it in their webpage photos… because they all unmask for publicity… but they are all action against illness in the classroom.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 13
I’d like to clear something up.

When they said c19 would become seasonal, they weren’t referring to human behaviour in the context of varying climate/weather conditions leading to complex epidemics continuously worldwide.
They meant once a year in winter and just like all the other colds.
And they were wrong.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 6
I can’t tell you all the details because I’m am running between day job and evening taxi service for kids…. BUT

SAFER INDOOR AIR IS COMING AUSTRALIA!

#auspol
Key players… you all know Prof Sutton left CHO Vic position to go to CSIRO?

Well he’s been beavering away over there collating all current evidence.

Importantly ->
Dr Michelle Ananda-Rajah said that there is a need to find “a road to implementation” and that the consensus is that there is enough evidence to start working on this *now*.
Read 8 tweets

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