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Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
@BjornLomborg
Oct 3, 2021 • 17 tweets • 10 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
New study: climate makes children born today experience 2-36x more climate catastrophes

Lot of media coverage

But study assumes everyone stays poor and do nothing to adapt

Not remotely true of real world

So, what's the point, except to scare?

🧵

science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
To predict 2100, scary climate study assumes nobody does anything after 2005

– how does that inform real-life decisions?

They don’t even tell you this in main study – you have to read the supplementary material, almost as if they don't want you to know

science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
Predicting the world in 2021 with 1926 data is awful

Since 1926, sea levels risen 15-20cm so prediction: drowned significant parts of the world

But human ingenuity actually means that *more* land has been reclaimed than lost!

nature.com/articles/nclim…
Scary climate study cherry-picks events that they know will get worse

Not useful way to guide policy

but great way to scare

(they also introduce ref37, which describes all their data better
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20…)
Scary climate study shows that fires burn more and more

In reality, global burned area has *declined*

But, of course, if you ignore societies controlling fire...

Not useful to guide policy

but great way to scare

science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
Scary climate study uses fire model that doesn’t really work

And acknowledges that human action could reverse ”any of the trends found here”

But while this is useless to guide policy

it is great for scaring

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20…
Global fire history shows ever less area burns because of human fire suppression

Climate policy will make fire decline even more

This sort of information can help policy-makers

But, of course, pretty useless for scaring young people senseless

Refs here
Scary climate study claims much more fire (red line)

But 𝗼𝗻𝗹𝘆 true if ignore CO₂ and fire suppression from society

If included, Nature study shows *completely* different outcome

Red line useless for policy, but great for scaring

nature.com/articles/nclim…
Scary study shows more flooding, but ignores social factors:

Not surprisingly, humans can avoid most flooding, if they are not poor

Ignoring obvious adaptation — like levees and dams — doesn’t inform but simply scares

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20…
Compare the impact on coastal flooding from rising sea levels:

As humanity gets richer (SSP1 or SSP5), it will protect itself ever better, and ever fewer will get flooded

Informative, but not scary

pnas.org/content/111/9/…
Scary climate study finds more and more hurricanes

— although they *know* that ”most … models project fewer hurricanes in a warmer world”

While not informative, claiming more hurricanes obviously great for scare stories

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20…
Scary climate study finds more and more hurricanes

— but the UN Climate Panel from 2021 finds that the frequency “will decrease or remain unchanged with increased global warming”

How is this not deeply problematic?

ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1…
Scary climate study expects more hurricanes and model that humanity will do nothing

— although we’ve always tackled hurricanes, and adaptation can ”reverse any such trend”

But great for scaring young people

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20…
Scary climate study expects more crop failure and expects humanity will do nothing

— although changing cultivars, fertilizer, pesticides, irrigation can reverse this

But narrative great for scaring young people

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20…
Scary study predicts more and more crop failures because they ignore adaptation

WHO estimate for malnutrition: declines dramatically because of less poverty. Climate simply slows down the decline slightly

But scaring people is apparently much more fun

apps.who.int/iris/handle/10…
Scary article blatantly tells you (in supplementary material) that they only look at potentially bad stuff, but in reality, things might get better

Well, here are actual damages for global weather-related losses — declining

Scary climate article tells you: children of the future will experience many more climate disasters

But they ignore adaptation and many of their models are just plain bad

Demand policy-relevant information, not just scares

, sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

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More from @BjornLomborg

Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Sep 2
The world is burning less, not more

That's contrary to the climate narrative

2025 has seen dramatically less fire in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe

On this trajectory, 2025 could become the lowest-burn year in the 21st century

Did you see this reported anywhere?

Data: from satellites circling the planet 24/7 (MODIS), modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/dataprod/…

2025 data from Jan 1-Sept 2 shows 80% as much burned area as normally for same period 2012-24 from Global Wildfire Information System, gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.stat…

Light blue data shows extrapolation on current trajectory to full 2025Image
In 2025, the world is burning less, not more

That's contrary to the climate narrative

2025 has seen extraordinarily little fire in Africa, much less than average, and even less than the minimum, from 2012-24

Did you see this reported anywhere?

Data from Global Wildfire Information System gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.stat…Image
In 2025, the world is burning less, not more

That's contrary to the climate narrative

2025 has seen extraordinarily little fire in the Americas, much less than average, and even less than the minimum, from 2012-24

Did you see this reported anywhere?

Data from Global Wildfire Information System gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.stat…Image
Read 7 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Jun 30
Awful climate scare

New Nature study claims climate means less food, “like everyone giving up breakfast."

Media even spins "mass starvation"

No, study's small print reveals ever more food, tempered slightly by climate

+ many other issues

The scare is the point

🧵Image
New study claims climate leads to much less food

Reality? "Reduction" is merely a deviation from increasing baseline yields

So, not less food overall, but slightly less of much more food

Still, the researchers tell the "less food" story to the public

nature.com/articles/s4158…Image
New study claims climate means food loss like giving up breakfast

Only true IF agricultural innovation halts today

Preposterous to assume progress stops — global yields up 8% since 2015, 1%+ annually since 1961

The researchers don't believe it, but they tell journalists Image
Read 9 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
May 4
The cheap green lie

You are told that solar and wind are cheap

But cramming in more solar and wind just makes electricity more and more costly

because solar and wind are worthless when not sunny and windy

iea.org/data-and-stati…Image
The cheap green lie

You are told that solar and wind are cheap

But cramming in more solar and wind makes power more and more costly

because solar and wind are worthless when not sunny and windy

True for both 2023 and 2019, before Covid and Ukraine

iea.org/data-and-stati…Image
There are no high-solar&wind, low-cost nations

You are told that solar and wind are cheap

But cramming in more solar and wind just makes electricity more and more costly

because solar and wind are worthless when not sunny and windy

iea.org/data-and-stati…Image
Read 4 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Apr 30
Two days ago, Spain lost 55% of its power, most from solar

Perception: Everyone wants to blame anything but renewables

Reality: With renewables, the grid gets vulnerable (missing inertia, mainly from fossil fuels) so we need more costly renewable management

So Reuters deceptively tells us, "don't blame renewables," blame "management of renewables"

reuters.com/business/energ…Image
"By continuously reducing inertia, Spain’s policymakers engineered a vulnerability."

"Spain’s electrical grid was operating with very little margin for error, a risky game that the Spanish government has been playing more aggressively each year since energy-transitionist ideologues took power two decades ago."

archive.ph/eonJRImage
Read 5 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Jan 25
The myth that the green energy transition is inevitable and will make cheap electricity for everyone is one of the most dangerous self-delusions of the global elite

My piece for Sunday Telegraph

archive.ph/EufH0Image
Globally, fossil fuels supply 81% today (2022)

only marginally down from 81.2% in 2000

On current trends, fossil fuels are not on track to end in 2050
but in 4-9 centuries
iea.org/data-and-stati…Image
You are told that solar and wind are cheap

But cramming in more solar and wind just makes power more and more costly

because solar and wind are worthless when not sunny and windy

iea.org/data-and-stati……

x.com/i/web/status/1… Image
Read 4 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Oct 31, 2024
Spanish floods are tragic — as they are everywhere

But remember flood deaths down dramatically

Globally, floods now kill 5,400/year, down from 400,000/year in 1930s

Deaths from European floods down 7-fold to less than 100 per year today

nature.com/articles/s4146…Image
Despite breathless climate reporting,

not only are European floods causing fewer deaths (tweet above) but

Losses from floods in Europe are declining, not increasing

nature.com/articles/s4146…Image
Death from flooding declining (2nd row)

not only for rich countries but for poor countries

Deaths declining for almost all extreme weather for rich and poor

for flood, flash flood, coastal flood, cold and wind

and for all extreme weather

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…Image
Read 5 tweets

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