Neil Thomas 牛犇 Profile picture
Oct 4, 2021 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Big personnel moves in the Chinese Communist Party in recent days

New provincial leaders in Anhui, Shandong, Xinjiang & Zhejiang

And a former Minister of Justice is purged

These moves show Xi Jinping further consolidating power before the 20th Party Congress next fall (1/10)
Li Ganjie 李干杰 (56) is the new Party Secretary of Shandong

Promoted from Governor of Shandong, a post he was "parachuted" into from Minister of Environment last April

Politburo contender. Youngest provincial PS & part of "Tsinghua clique" of grads of Xi's alma mater (2/10)
Zhou Naixiang 周乃翔 (59) is the new Governor of Shandong

Level-up promotion from Party Secretary of China State Construction Engineering Corporation

Worked 35+ years in native Jiangsu, inc under Xi allies Cai Qi & Li Qiang

Will upgrade to a full Central Committee seat (3/10)
Zheng Shanjie 郑栅洁 (59) is the new Party Secretary of Anhui

Promoted from Governor of Zhejiang, a level-up role he only got last September

Worked in Xiamen when Xi was Fujian Governor 99-02 (Xi was Xiamen deputy mayor 85-88)

Will win at least a Central Committee seat (4/10)
Wang Hao 王浩 (58) is the new Governor of Zhejiang, replacing Zheng

Level-up promotion to ministerial rank from Party Secretary of Xi'an city

Previously was PS of Tangshan and Yantai and worked 35 years in his native Shandong

Will win a Central Committee seat (5/10)
Erkin Tuniyaz (艾尔肯·吐尼亚孜) (59) is the new Governor of Xinjiang (called the "chairman" 主席)

Level-up promotion to ministerial rank from Vice Governor of Xinjiang

Extends a run of Uyghur governors in Xinjiang since 1979

Will upgrade to a full Central Committee seat (6/10)
Fu Zhenghua 傅政华 (66) was put under investigation by the CCP's discipline watchdog

Second 19th Central Committee member investigated after Liu Shiyu in 2019

Fu worked the Zhou Yongkang case in 2013 but his star was already waning as Minister of Justice from 2018-2020 (7/10)
Some thoughts on these personnel moves:

Working under Xi, under a Xi ally, or having another Xi connection remains a great way to get promoted!

Despite economic wobbles, Xi remains large and in charge of the CCP

Partly due to his deep clean of the security apparatus (8/10)
Some recently promoted politicians appear in a piece I did for @MacroPoloChina earlier this year that analyzed all of the provincial leadership promotions in 2020 (9/10)

macropolo.org/chinese-politi…
Would recommend everyone check out The Committee, the @MacroPoloChina database of CC Central Committee members

Am proud to have worked on The Committee and designed the function whereby you can see which cadres used to work with each other! (10/10)

macropolo.org/digital-projec…

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More from @neilthomas123

Nov 5, 2025
Mao said China would eclipse the US by 2030

In 1955: "Our goal is to catch up with and surpass the US ... it will take at least 50 years, perhaps 75, which is 15 five-year plans"

Xi just outlined China's 15th five-year plan. Can he prove Mao right?

Latest for @AsiaPolicy

1/ Image
Probably not by the numbers—China's nominal GDP was only 64% of the US last year

But perhaps yes in substance—industrial might, tech self-reliance, and export controls helped Xi stare down US pressure this year

Chinese scholars are praising Mao's "strategic foresight"...

2/ Image
But Xi still sees Trump as an agent of chaos and is preparing for a more turbulent world

April 2: 34% tariff on China
April 8: 84%
April 9: 125%

April 10: Beijing holds a "special meeting" to adjust its five-year planning in light of "changes in the external situation"...

3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Oct 28, 2025
Everyone talks about Cai Qi. Don't forget Wang Huning.

Xi Jinping just made extra space for Wang on the drafting team for his five-year plan proposals

Wang is China's most powerful United Front boss since Deng Xiaoping left the role in 1983

Could stay past retirement age? 1/ Image
This table shows the evolution of drafting teams for plenums about five-year plans

Wang Huning is the first CPPCC Chairman (United Front boss) on such a team

He was also the first CCP Secretariat Head involved when he held that role in 2020

Becoming a constant presence.. 2/ Image
Similar thing happened at the Third Plenum last July, which decided structural reforms for 2029

Per past practice, Xi led the drafting team, with the CCP Secretariat Head (Cai Qi) and Executive Vice Premier (Ding Xuexiang) as deputies

But he added a deputy: Wang Huning.. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Oct 23, 2025
China's Fourth Plenum ends:

1. Super-low attendance suggests record purge of Central Committee

2. Near-record discipline of 10 members & 4 alternates

3. Xi affirms PLA purges by promoting discipline boss Zhang Shengmin to replace He Weidong as CMC Vice-Chair

Thoughts..

1/ Image
Communique suggests huge purge of Central Committee members beyond current rumors

Attendance was only 168/205 members and 147/171 alternates for a total of 315/376 (84%)

I believe that's a record low in the post-Mao era

"Empty chairs at empty tables" (h/t @shuizaiping2)

2/ Image
The Central Committee confirmed the expulsion of 10 members and 4 alternates

These were mostly pre-announced by the Politburo or disciplinary organs—e.g., He Weidong, Miao Hua

Almost as many disciplinary actions as the 2017 Seventh Plenum, but a new record for expulsions

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Oct 17, 2025
Big update! China just confirmed it has fired number-two general He Weidong

9 generals, inc 8 Central Committee members, expelled from the CCP

1 Politburo vacancy, 3 Central Military Commission vacancies, 11 CC vacancies

Will Xi fill them at the Fourth Plenum next week?

1/ Image
Xi may leave the Politburo and CMC depleted

No one replaced Sun Zhengcai when he was purged from the Politburo in 2017

And Xi has repeatedly declined to promote Li Shangfu's successor Dong Jun to the CMC

Absences make it easier for him to dominate and help punish the PLA

2/ Image
Still, He Weidong was the first uniformed CMC vice chair purged since the 1960s

Xi may be fine with ally Zhang Youxia as sole vice chair. Or he may want balance🤷‍♂️

But Miao Hua handled PLA loyalty, a Xi priority. @jonczin suggests some possible replacements for him:

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 15, 2025
Who has Xi purged from the CCP Central Committee?

Attendance at next week's Fourth Plenum will reveal the extent of his recent "purge surge"

If all rumors are true, only 168/205 members (82%) and 159/171 alternates (93%) will be there

And only 17/44 of PLA members (39%)!

1/ Image
Would be the sparsest plenum in recent memory

Main cause is spate of disappearances and disciplinary campaigns in the People's Liberation Army

Closest comparison I can find is the 2017 Seventh Plenum at the end of Xi's first-term crackdown (191 members and 145 alternates)

2/ Image
This year could be big drop from the 199/205 members and 165/171 alternates at the Third Plenum last July

Illness and travel explain some absences; but political trouble explains more

Some "missing" cadres may resurface, but maximum attendance will be 193/205 and 165/171

3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Sep 25, 2025
"As Xi [Jinping] steps back, Li [Qiang] could emerge as an important interlocutor for governments and companies that want to engage with China, said Neil Thomas, a Chinese politics fellow at @AsiaPolicy."

Great @AP report by @kmorit

1/ Image
"Li has held talks at the U.N. this week with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Austrian Chancellor Christian Stocker."

2/
"Thomas described Li as 'an incredibly important person' to engage with during the U.N. meeting. 'He’s acting on Xi’s behalf,' he said, 'and will be able to relay messages between Xi and the world.'"

3/
Read 8 tweets

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