Thread by @DrSimEvans

Super excited to finally share this updated analysis on the countries most responsible for climate change, now including all sources of CO2:

US 509GtCO2
CN 284
RU 172
BR 113
ID 103
DE 88
IN 86
UK 74
JP 68
CA 65

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carbonbrief.org/analysis-which…

We first published analysis of cumulative historical CO2 in 2019 & I've been talking / thinking about it ever since

Our new article (by me) + animation by @tomoprater tries to answer all the questions we've had over the years – please do read

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carbonbrief.org/analysis-which…

We've made 4 big additions:

📅fully updated through 2021
🌲CO2 from land-use change & forestry
🚢analysis of consumption emissions
👪analysis of cumulative CO2 per capita

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carbonbrief.org/analysis-which…

Since 1850, humans have collectively pumped more than 2,500GtCO2 into the atmosphere

2/3 from burning fossil fuels
1/3 from land-use change & forestry

That's directly linked to the 1.2C of warming to date

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carbonbrief.org/analysis-which…

So we've used up 86% of the carbon budget for a 50-50 chance of staying below 1.5C – or 89% of the budget for a 2/3 probability

There's just 10 / 7 years of budget left (😱)

carbonbrief.org/analysis-which…

Who got us into this mess? That question is at the heart of climate justice debates

Top 20 countries for cumulative CO2 since 1850 is topped by the US (20%) & China (11%)

Also v striking to see 🇧🇷🇮🇩 on the list thanks to deforestation…

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carbonbrief.org/analysis-which…

We also looked at consumption-based emissions accounting of CO2 in traded goods

I was surprised how little difference this made

It adds 0.3 percentage points share of cumulative total to US & JP, 0.2 for UK & DE; 1.1 points less for CN

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carbonbrief.org/analysis-which…

Then we looked at cumulative CO2 per capita…

It massively changes the rankings but breaks the direct link to current warming

And the results depend strongly on methodology

For me, it raises more Qs than it answers, but v interesting all the same

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carbonbrief.org/analysis-which…

For me personally – as a massive geek – the story of the data itself is fascinating

🤓🤓🤓

I hope, like me, you enjoy learning about what it is & where it comes from – I learned so much while researching this article

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carbonbrief.org/analysis-which…

I'd like to conclude by thanking a long list of ppl that helped with this analysis

Julia Pongratz
Gregg Marland
CDIAC
@Skee_WHRC
@robbie_andrew
@Peters_Glen
@PFriedling
@redouad
@OurWorldInData
@Carbon_Monitor

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carbonbrief.org/analysis-which…

Finally, thanks to @dpcarrington for some great coverage of our analysis at @guardianeco

theguardian.com/environment/20…