AMAZING NEWS: an atmospheric and an ocean modeller have been awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics for "physical modelling of Earth's climate, quantifying variability and reliably predicting global warming"
🙌🙌🙌🙌🙌🙌🙌🙌🙌 (thread)
I first learned about Manabe & Wetherald's research as an undergraduate student in the class that I originally took as a breadth requirement while completing my degree in astrophysics .. but which ended up completely changing the trajectory of my life. journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/…
Using early computers (like these ones) they were able to turn the basic equations of non-linear fluid dynamics into code that was able to represent the general circulation of the atmosphere on a rotating sphere... the origin of "GCM" = general circulation model.
They were not the first to calculate how much the earth would warm as we increased CO2 by burning fossil fuels, though. That was done in the 1890s by another Nobel-winner, Svante Arrhenius; a distant cousin of @GretaThunberg. rsc.org/images/Arrheni…
Over time, climate models have evolved with our understanding of the dynamics of the climate system and available computing power. Here's a figure showing their history that I designed for NCA4. Source: science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/4/
Climate models are not collections of statistical relationships where you just put CO2 in and out comes temperature. Rather, they are fully dynamic physical models of the climate system. A great explainer by @CarbonBrief here -> carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-clim…
Climate models can be applied to study the earth in the distant past, or the future, or even other planets - because it's all the same physics. And chemistry, and biology too. ncei.noaa.gov/products/paleo…
Climate models have often been attacked by opponents to climate action. But although they are always evolving and improving, sometimes it turns out it's the models that got the physics right and the satellites that didn't. nature.com/articles/s4155…
Long-term, even the most rudimentary models have tracked global temperature well. Like this one by @DrJamesEHansen in 1981. Source: carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-w…
For more on climate models, check out our Global Weirding episode:
And to catch up on the latest research climate models are being used for, learn more about the emerging field of individual event attribution from this year's TIME100 honoree @FrediOtto book: greystonebooks.com/products/angry… article: nytimes.com/2021/08/17/opi…
I close this thread by recommending this book by Syukuro Manabe and Anthony Broccoli: a definitive account of how we have come to understand the fundamental processes behind global warming. Which, as you now know, is Nobel-winning work. 🥂
press.princeton.edu/books/hardcove…
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More from @KHayhoe

4 Oct
The question is not, can we afford to stop using fossil fuels. The question is, how can we afford NOT to?
And don't forget ... science.org/news/2016/08/j…
Read 4 tweets
25 Sep
The other day, I decided to conduct an experiment. I set a timer for 3 hours and counted how many times I was publicly shamed here on twitter during that time. The answer? 12. And since then I've counted dozens of examples of others being shamed, as well. (thread)
Just under half of mine came from people on the right-hand side of the political spectrum, using the tried-and-true denial technique, “impossible expectations” ... i.e. you’re only allowed to talk climate action if you essentially stop breathing & live off the grid. No surprise.
But the other half came from people who were clearly very concerned about & invested in climate change. Something I said or didn’t say had violated their 10 Commandments of Green Living, and they wanted to make sure I knew it.
Read 13 tweets
22 Sep
Three chances to catch me online tonight!

7E Instagram Live with @corrigankelly & @joinsciencemoms

9E A Climate of Change with @simondonner & the @ClimateYYC

10.30E Talking climate with Jimmy Kimmel Live!

details below ... Image
Join Science Moms @EricaSmithwick, Claudia Benitez-Nelson & I as we talk climate with @corrigankelly live on her Instagram account at 7pm E instagram.com/kellycorrigan/ Image
Join @simondonner and I as we talk about Canada, climate change, and communication with the Calgary @ClimateYYC tonight at 9pm E - register for a link or watch on FB calgaryclimatehub.ca/acoc_3_3_featu…
Read 5 tweets
18 Sep
Good news for today: "The global pipeline of proposed coal power plants has collapsed by 76% since the Paris Agreement in 2015, bringing the end of new coal power construction into sight." Here's what needs to happen next ... (see next tweet) e3g.org/publications/n…
The lions' share of remaining carbon emissions come from a handful of dirty coal plants. smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/fiv…
Where are the world's coal plants? Primarily in the eastern US, China, India and Europe. carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-…
Read 5 tweets
18 Sep
This is a REALLY good idea. Social media is almost singlehandedly responsible for the spread of dangerous conspiracy theories, from covid to flat earth to climate. They need to acknowledge it and take responsibility to address it. @jack @LinkedIn @YouTube @Facebook @Twitter
Because I’m a scientist, I want to be clear that the statement above is not just my opinion. There is peer reviewed evidence for it. For example, on Twitter: news.mit.edu/2018/study-twi…
Flat earthers: “we provide evidence for … conversion after multiple exposures to Flat Earth YouTube videos on & the crucial role YouTube played in their conversion process, suggesting the platform is potentially a strong avenue for changing beliefs.” tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…
Read 5 tweets
17 Sep
So delighted to see #TIME100 recognize pioneering scientists @FrediOtto and @gjvoldenborgh for their work on the cutting edge of extreme weather attribution: putting numbers on how much worse climate change made a given hurricane, heatwave or flood. 👏👏👏time.com/collection/100…
Their work makes climate change up close and personal. I wrote this op-ed with Fredi a few weeks ago, when the air outside my family's home was choked with wildfire smoke and she was checking on her family's safety after the devastating German floods. nytimes.com/2021/08/17/opi…
If you'd like to understand the science behind how they put numbers on exactly how much more likely, stronger, or more damaging climate change made a certain event, I highly recommend @FrediOtto's engrossing book. greystonebooks.com/products/angry…
Read 4 tweets

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