Thread by @KHayhoe

AMAZING NEWS: an atmospheric and an ocean modeller have been awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics for "physical modelling of Earth's climate, quantifying variability and reliably predicting global warming"
🙌🙌🙌🙌🙌🙌🙌🙌🙌 (thread)

https://twitter.com/NobelPrize/status/1445325078451867651

I first learned about Manabe & Wetherald's research as an undergraduate student in the class that I originally took as a breadth requirement while completing my degree in astrophysics .. but which ended up completely changing the trajectory of my life. journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/…

Using early computers (like these ones) they were able to turn the basic equations of non-linear fluid dynamics into code that was able to represent the general circulation of the atmosphere on a rotating sphere... the origin of "GCM" = general circulation model.

They were not the first to calculate how much the earth would warm as we increased CO2 by burning fossil fuels, though. That was done in the 1890s by another Nobel-winner, Svante Arrhenius; a distant cousin of @GretaThunberg. rsc.org/images/Arrheni…

Over time, climate models have evolved with our understanding of the dynamics of the climate system and available computing power. Here's a figure showing their history that I designed for NCA4. Source: science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/4/

Climate models are not collections of statistical relationships where you just put CO2 in and out comes temperature. Rather, they are fully dynamic physical models of the climate system. A great explainer by @CarbonBrief here -> carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-clim…

Climate models can be applied to study the earth in the distant past, or the future, or even other planets - because it's all the same physics. And chemistry, and biology too. ncei.noaa.gov/products/paleo…

Climate models have often been attacked by opponents to climate action. But although they are always evolving and improving, sometimes it turns out it's the models that got the physics right and the satellites that didn't. nature.com/articles/s4155…

Long-term, even the most rudimentary models have tracked global temperature well. Like this one by @DrJamesEHansen in 1981. Source: carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-w…

For more on climate models, check out our Global Weirding episode:

And to catch up on the latest research climate models are being used for, learn more about the emerging field of individual event attribution from this year's TIME100 honoree @FrediOtto book: greystonebooks.com/products/angry… article: nytimes.com/2021/08/17/opi…

I close this thread by recommending this book by Syukuro Manabe and Anthony Broccoli: a definitive account of how we have come to understand the fundamental processes behind global warming. Which, as you now know, is Nobel-winning work. 🥂
press.princeton.edu/books/hardcove…

And I add a PS. for three great TED talks by climate modellers @ClimateOfGavin, @DrKateMarvel and @DrJamesEHansen

ted.com/talks/gavin_sc…

ted.com/talks/kate_mar…

ted.com/talks/james_ha…

And the thread continues from here but somehow it got disconnected so here's the next tweet ->

https://twitter.com/KHayhoe/status/1445408949017137153?s=20