This is a good point, and I would add to it that the internet as a system is robust *because* the protocols are ancient and crufty and not too reliable. Ancient is antifragile! Real systemic risk lurks in the cloud—a complex system of cruft that is designed to never, ever fail.
There is an inverse relationship between severity and rarity. As services like AWS become better at containing imaginable failures, the ones that do make it through to affect the whole system will be wilder and weirder, and unplanned for by definition. Complexity always wins.
At the same time, people will treat any platform that demonstrates 99.9999% reliability as having 100% reliability, recursively in layer after layer, laying the seeds for cascading disaster when probability catches up with them. Think about the 2008 bank crisis as an example.
People saying the internet is a hairball held together with bubble gum and duct tape are paying it a huge compliment. Here and there inside the hairball is a delicately engineered Swiss watch, and those are the parts we need to get rid of.
Anyway this is all just the tech port of a standard-issue @nntaleb rant, except that I forgot to call anyone an asshole.
If you've seen a video of the Milk Crate Challenge, then you understand how the layered architecture of modern hardware, software, and the internet all works.

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More from @Pinboard

7 Oct
Look at all that future mountain real estate and try to tell me global warming is all bad.
Also likely plenty of oil to be discovered under those ice sheets, so the defrosting of Antarctica will be a virtuous cycle.
Big Climatology doesn't want you to remember that global warming will not only unlock an entire new continent, but solve a whole host of currently intractable social problems. Want a more equitable Senate and an expanded Bay Area with lots of room for new homes? Burn that coal! Image
Read 8 tweets
6 Oct
I've been in mostly violent agreement with @smdiehl and others who call out cryptocurrency and its descendants for what they are—an end run around financial regulation at best, a massive fraud at worst. We all agree it makes no sense as a technology. But one thing worries me:
The culture around NFTs and other cryptowoo is genuinely vibrant and interesting. People have an enthusiasm and fearlessness about trying stuff that reminds the dinosaurs still among us of the early web days. This is especially true for young people just arriving on the scene.
The web itself, meanwhile, is sterile and moribund. There's nothing fun or weird around that doesn't get immediately co-opted, and there's certainly no DIY or collaborative culture of making cool things. You can play with the toys Google or Amazon gives you, big whoop.
Read 6 tweets
6 Oct
Campaign finance nerds, do you know of a way to track indirect Facebook spending by candidates? In other words, if my campaign committee pays ABC DIGITAL CONSULTING a million dollars and they spend half of that running Facebook ads, is their expenditure a public record?
We seem to be in an uncomfortable situation where the legislators who would potentially regulate Facebook spend heavily on the platform, but the amount of their expenditure is not a matter of public record because it is spent indirectly.
Because indirect expenditures aren't tracked by the FEC, the only source we have for what politicians spend on Facebook is... Facebook. This is part of the larger pattern where only Facebook has the data we would need to make informed decisions about regulating its activities. Image
Read 9 tweets
5 Oct
Facebook insider testimony is valuable, but Congress should not make policy based on a former Facebook exec's recommendations any more than they would regulate cigarettes by listening to Big Tobacco. On Section 230, they should solicit testimony from what's left of the open web
The content of the whistleblowing so far has been the same critique that's been directed at Facebook by outside observers for many years. It's neither a story about evil monopolies or an evil CEO, but how we choose to embed ubiquitous communication and surveillance into our lives
This is a vital area for regulation, but previous efforts like the GDPR or the European cookie law show how important it is to get your thinking right if you don't want to make things worse. That requires expanding the conversation beyond a morality play about corporate greed.
Read 10 tweets
4 Oct
The weirdest idea floating around today is that an independent WhatsApp would not be capable of having its own outages.
To make the antimonopoly argument fairly, you would have to factor in how many times WhatsApp avoided downtime because it had Facebook resources behind it. Maybe that number is zero, maybe it's a lot.
Maybe half of humanity relying on a messenger app is a bigger monopoly issue than who bought that app.
Read 5 tweets
4 Oct
The nature of progressive power in 2021 is odd and interesting.

1. They exercise a veto over moderate legislation
2. They can defeat moderates in safe Democratic districts
3. They dominate NGO world, political organizing, and large news organizations

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
For those of us who are not progressive, a lot of it is like watching a repeat of education polarization and ideological sorting that happened on a national scale repeat itself within the Democratic Party. In this dynamic, purity of purpose is rewarded and equated with strength.
There's a feedback loop between legislative paralysis and ideological polarization that makes everything worse. When it is impossible for any legislator to be effective in their job (because the institution is paralyzed), there's no disincentive to electing charismatic extremists
Read 4 tweets

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