Thread by @CalibreObscura

[THREAD] The Islamic State of Iraq released a new video entitled "So await; we are awaiting with you.", a reference to a line in Surah at Tawbah (Verse 52). A better title for it is "more of the same" as it is a showcase of typical IS tactics in 2020 & 21.

The video covers various attacks across Iraq from early 2020 until just last month. They're in all of IS' usual areas of operations; Diyala, Anbar, Salahuddin, North Baghdad, Kirkuk, etc. There is no major tactical shifts although I do note some interesting aspects.

In terms of small arms, it's all standard stuff- M16A4 & A2, along with M4 variants, are the favourites as ever, along with AK variants, PK(M), RPG-7/Type 69 (Uusually with PG-7VM, OG-7V, PG-7V, T69-1, etc), and a couple of bigger pieces. Mortars too, usually 60mm.

A good example of the "highest grade" IS unit seen in the video is an Anbar cell seen preparing for a raid. It's rather rare to see HMG (Here it's a Type 54) plus a 23mm 2A14 autocannon. These cells are considered "Elite" internally, are well armed w/ M4/M16A4/MG-1M/T69 & PG-7M.

There is a few M4geries seen in the video, along with some probably real M4 variants, VHS-K2, AKS-74U (That cell actually got blotted out by Tribal forces a while later), etc. Now to TTPs and related observations.

As I alluded to in the first tweet; the attacks seen are to be expected, including:

- Serious quantities of IEDs
- Close range rural ambushes
- Semi-urban assassinations & raids
- Simple mortar attacks
- A few complex raids (Such as Rashad) involving "come on" tactics, TWS, etc.

Again, IS make heavy use of their traditional suppressed M16s (Pic 1: Hit, July 31st 2021), suppressed Glock 19 Gen3, TWS (Pulsar Apex XD75 juust about spotted), suppressed Beretta 70-series pistols. All of these are effective in the hands of what I term "semi-urban" raid cells.

Not to say small rural cells can't be effective; the close range RPG (PG-7VM, OG-7V) use in the dense vegetation of Salahuddin is startling both in simplicity & probable effectiveness. Really showcases the difficult job that the ISF have on their "sweeps" even w/ coalition cover.

Other rural attacks include simple car spraydowns in Tigris, more IEDs, and so on. This has been the bread and butter of the insurgency for not all that far off 20 years now; long before dramatic events like the town takeovers in the 2000-10s.

We get some more media of a less common tactic, the use of 122mm "Grad" rockets too. This really seems to me to be a status action to a degree; single rockets are unlikely to be seriously damaging but are a reminder of present danger. Some crop/equipment burnings, too.

What else to add? Ah, Ghanimah. Seen here:

Rashad, Kirkuk: Remington R4 (Supplied by Coalition), M60MA mortar w/ ILL bomb, RPG-7 w/ T69-1/PG-7V, PK/MG-1M/T80, kit/mags
Salahuddin: GHO-1/2, GHD-2/3
North Bdad: K98k?, T56-1/KLF, T56

(Likely a bit more that I missed, but..)

Video has less of a desperate air than the one in May & if I was to try to separate the carefully selected footage from reality, likely does show a more emboldened and capable organisation overall since the beginning of 2020. The successful penetration into cities is celebrated.

That said, there is nothing that indicates a serious qualitative (or quantitative) leap forward. This is a complex and dangerous organisation that must be kept under constant pressure; hopefully recent CT successes can keep that so. I suspect escalation is coming.

It is clear that the group cannot operate as openly as it would like. I do suspect that IS' ability to penetrate into secure areas will be both limited but very much trumpeted by the group when they occasionally manage it. The warning signs are there.

https://twitter.com/SecMedCell/status/1439335090191020033

My thanks to @blueboy1969 for a dash of ID assistance. That's about it.

[END THREAD]

cc @AbraxasSpa @MENA_Conflict @oryxspioenkop @APHClarkson @AlexAlmeida2020 @Mikeknightsiraq @p_vanostaeyen @TomaszRolbiecki etc etc.

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This was supposed to say "Islamic State *in* Iraq", it's technically Wilayah Iraq after they merged them back together. Sorry.

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1445457230954831876