Robert Colvile Profile picture
Oct 8, 2021 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Just digging into recent @yougov polling and found a fascinating reproof to Boris's conference speech - even Tory voters want more housing built! (second column)
It's true that the numbers fall when you change the question to 'in my local area', but it is still a majority - and much, much tighter among Tory voters than you would expect from the rampant Nimbyism on stage.
(Anecdotal side note: it is worth flagging that the true blue activist crowd at our @CPSThinkTank fringe meeting with @jacob_rees_mogg went near-unanimously for more housebuilding when he asked for a voice vote.)
Another interesting finding that should be better-known - voters really want house prices to fall! Finding true across all social groups. People are completely aware of the damage they are doing.
In fact, telling people it will cause house prices to fall is one of the best ways to get them to support more housebuilding...
Of course, in fairness to Boris, people really do oppose building on greenfield. But that's partly because they read it as 'green field' rather than 'often quite scrubby land'

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More from @rcolvile

May 8
Big new report out on the immigration system from @CPSThinkTank, by @RobertJenrick, @NeilDotObrien & @MalvernianKarl. There’s a huge amount of really interesting stuff in there – so let me run through the key points/charts. (1/?) cps.org.uk/research/takin…
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The first and most obvious point is that there has been a HUGE (and historically unprecedented) rise in net migration. In the 25 years before Tony Blair took office, cumulative migration was almost 100x lower than in the 25 years after. Image
Over the last few years in particular, the numbers have gone into overdrive - driven by a massive surge in non-EU migration.
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Read 31 tweets
Mar 24
Is Britain ready for the Baby Bust? My column this week is on, quite literally, the biggest story in the world - what's happening to population. Quick thread as some of the stats are pretty jaw-dropping (1/?) thetimes.co.uk/article/were-d…
A big new study in the Lancet confirms what demographers have known for ages - we're heading for a shrinking planet. By 2100, fertility rates in 97% of countries will be below replacement rates healthdata.org/news-events/ne…
But the fall isn't even! At the moment, Africa, India and China all have approx 1.4 billion people. By 2100, India is expected to be at 1.5 billion. China will almost halve, to 800 million. But Africa may be at 4.2 billion.
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Read 14 tweets
Mar 19
Yes, it's another prominent article in the Guardian pretending that we don't need to build any more houses. And like all the others, it's riddled with glaring errors. Just in case anyone believes this bullshit, let's do the thread thing. (1/far too many) theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2…
Central thesis of this article: there is no shortage of housing. It's all about landlords. Literally 'mass-scale housebuilding isn't necessary'. Punch! But, er, wrong. Image
Right, let's kick off. (Not screenshotting every par as this bloody thing is 1800 words long.) Two claims - the familiar one that we have more households than homes, so can't possibly have a crisis, and a new one that London is the same size, so how can prices rise? Image
Read 31 tweets
Feb 13
I've written before about @SadiqKhan's thoroughly awful record on housing, and his relentless attempts to gaslight London into believing the opposite, but surely even his most loyal cronies can't defend the latest figures, published today. (1/?)
Target for GLA affordable housing starts, 2021-6: 23,900 to 27,100 p.a.

Actual GLA affordable housing starts, first three quarters of 2023-4: 874
Council house starts the Mayor boasted about in May: 23,000

Council house starts under the 'Building Council Homes for Londoners' programme since May: zero. (Yes, zero.)
Read 8 tweets
Jan 30
The new population projections are out. And they show (shock!) that we either need to cut net migration, or build WAY more houses. Preferably, both. Quick thread (1/)
As @CPSThinkTank has pointed out repeatedly, the 300k a year housing target is based on a decade-old estimate that net migration would be 170,500 a year. The levels we've had have been... not that. Image
@CPSThinkTank The most recent assumption was that net migration would, despite current sky-high peaks, fall back to 245k in the long run. Many of us were not convinced - not least since the original estimate behind that was already invalidated by visa data at the point of publication! Image
Read 14 tweets
Jan 21
Everyone is talking about Horizon/Fujitsu. But there are some key aspects everyone has missed - including the big reason Fujitsu kept getting contracts even after the scandal broke. Have done a deep dive for my column - thread below (1/?) thetimes.co.uk/article/the-vi…
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The story starts in the 60s, when the Wilson govt hits on a new solution to Britain's lack of competitiveness - not nationalisation, but national direction. It forces private firms to merge (at gunpoint) to create 'national champions' which can export to the world.
One of these is British Leyland. Another - Tony Benn's brainchild - is International Computers Limited, or ICL. This is meant to be Britain's answer to IBM. Spoiler warning: it isn't.
Read 28 tweets

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