Robert Colvile Profile picture
Oct 8, 2021 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Just digging into recent @yougov polling and found a fascinating reproof to Boris's conference speech - even Tory voters want more housing built! (second column)
It's true that the numbers fall when you change the question to 'in my local area', but it is still a majority - and much, much tighter among Tory voters than you would expect from the rampant Nimbyism on stage.
(Anecdotal side note: it is worth flagging that the true blue activist crowd at our @CPSThinkTank fringe meeting with @jacob_rees_mogg went near-unanimously for more housebuilding when he asked for a voice vote.)
Another interesting finding that should be better-known - voters really want house prices to fall! Finding true across all social groups. People are completely aware of the damage they are doing.
In fact, telling people it will cause house prices to fall is one of the best ways to get them to support more housebuilding...
Of course, in fairness to Boris, people really do oppose building on greenfield. But that's partly because they read it as 'green field' rather than 'often quite scrubby land'

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More from @rcolvile

Sep 9
Over the years since the Second World War, the great cities of the West have grown and thrived. But there is one big exception. The boundaries of London still sit where they did when the builders down tools in 1939. Why? The green belt. (1/?) thetimes.com/article/labour…
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If you look at a map of New York (source animation here ), or Macron's plans for 'Le Grand Paris' (), you can see how capital cities have grown and can grow. vimeo.com/297249350
capx.co/revealed-how-p…

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But in London, street after street on the edges simply... stops.

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Read 25 tweets
Sep 5
As the GB Energy Bill passes second reading, a quick reminder of how incredibly dodgy the maths behind Labour's energy policies is. (1/?)
Labour has promised to completely decarbonise the electricity grid by 2030. Most experts think that's completely impossible, at least without spending very, very large amounts.
Still! Labour has promised not only that we can do this, but that it will save everyone £300 on their bills. But there are big, big problems with this number.
Read 13 tweets
Aug 4
Are the Southport riots a turning point for Britain? Do they reveal something new, hideous and broken about our society? Lots of commentators are saying so, very loudly. But there's still a strong chance - if you go purely by historical precedent - that the answer is no. (1/?)
When the London riots happened in 2011, I wrote an op-ed on '10 ways in which these riots will change Britain'. There was universal agreement that they would do so (as well as some extraordinary attempts to argue that this just proved what the writer had been saying all along). Image
But a much more accurate version of my article would have been just two words: 'They won't.' In fact, when I looked back on almost a decade of my political blogging, the main predictive error I made was to think that whatever was in the headlines that week would shift the dial.
Read 8 tweets
Jul 31
Yesterday, the Govt published new housing targets. The ambition – to expand housebuilding – is hugely welcome. But if you go council by council, there are BIG problems, which have the potential to a) cause huge resistance b) deliver housing where it’s least needed. Strap in (1/?)
The govt is saying the new measure takes more account of affordability. But a map of housing affordability (R) looks NOTHING like what it’s done to council-level targets (L). If anything, the opposite.
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This is all the more puzzling because they have adjusted the formula to take much more account of affordability. The 'adjustment factor' - the weight given to affordability - has gone from 0.25 to 0.6, ie 2.4 times as much. So what's going on?
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Read 26 tweets
Jul 30
I like a lot of things about Labour's housing reforms. But the decision to let London off the hook has me properly fuming. Quick thread. (1/?)
When you're in power, you get to fuck over the people who didn't vote for you. That's life. The Tories did that with the 'urban uplift', which hacked housing targets in order to force more homes into the big cities. And now Labour have done the opposite.
The result is the pattern in this chart (via @JenWilliams_FT) - housing targets hiked in the North and the shires, lowered in the big cities. (Uplift was 35%, which helps explain some of these figures.) Image
Read 7 tweets
Jul 30
Right. Have been reading the changes to the NPPF, and it is genuinely game-changing on the green belt, in a way that is ambitious, necessary and potentially v v controversial - but also has very little to do with the 'grey belt'. Quick thread on what's changed. (1/?)
The new NPPF (which they've helpfully done track changes on) introduces a new category of green belt land called 'grey belt', which is exempt from existing restrictions on green belt land. Image
This is defined as land that has been previously developed, or 'makes a limited contribution to the five Green Belt purposes'. Image
Read 12 tweets

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