1 / $VIV.FP buying back ~1.5% shares / week at a stub enterprise value of... 0. In next 2 months, self-buyout via ORPA should launch.
2/ Then $BOL.FP trades for less than the value of its $UMG shares. So basically in 2 months, we will own businesses that generate ~€1.4 billion of EBIT/FCF for.... free... while the share count rapidly shrinks.
3/ Only $VIV.FP buying shares now, but would expect $BOL.FP to start taking out small minority companies with its cleaner balance sheet in the near-term. Especially given the $VIV.FP take-out is largely self-financed...
4/ So you're getting paid €2 billion to take ports + logistics businesses that will generate over €1 billion in EBITDA this year. -2x multiple. "but is the 'e' real?" 😂
5/ While I really love $UMG, with all of the buybacks ongoing/coming, you'll end up owning more UMG / share as this continues, and will be getting ~€2.5 billion in ‘21 EBITDA for free. Oh... and who would you rather at the helm of capital allocation? Just sayin'
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If you have an interest in container shipping / freight rates, let me know what you think here. We're doing work on the short side to protect our transport-exposed positions (mostly $BOL.FP) and are looking at timing. Here's where the debate stands - would love input. 🧵
1/ order book for new container ships is massive- 23% of current fleet, while not a peak from % perspective, it means a tremendous amount of new capacity coming online in 23 & 24. In fact, notional capacity added in 2023-2024 will be the same as 2007-2008, which was no bueno.
2/ freight forwarders saying the current very high rates last longer. We believe that's driven by the # of ships waiting to dock at port given the capacity constraints at ports (particularly long beach / LA). Here's # of ships standing by- about 1 month of full offload capacity.
There are a LOT of things on sale right now, $AML.LN is in our top 5 & agnostic to market rotations occurring. What other co. profit warns & goes up (yesterday) because it's so washed out? Let’s take a (fast) lap 🏎🏁
Aston Martin mini-thesis🧵
1/ It's not easy to revive a brand, but it helps if you have a century of performance & global awareness. But after an epic channel stuffing IPO collapsed shortly after, too many 🇬🇧 investors have been burned by 007's preferred wheels.
2/ Step 1 was a recapitalization to save it from an... 8th (‼️) lifetime bankruptcy. Now with ~£0.5B cash on the BS at YE21, w/ cash burn inflecting close to breakeven, the co. has plenty of room to deliver the turnaround. But still... the history has created a LOT of skeptics.
Going to weigh in on $TWTR only because I love pain.
1/ Today's reaction on $TWTR reminds me a lot of May 6, 2014. I was in Detroit. $FCAU unveiled its ambition to grow volumes from 4.4 million to 7 million. The stock closed down 11.7%. Sergio bought shares that day.
2/ Investors associated the stock reaction with a communication & management failure- which was really lost on me. After being "burned," no buy-siders bothered to attend the late day "chat" with Sergio... it was only that skeleton crew in the distance
3/ So me and 4-5 other lucky people had unfettered access to Sergio for a couple hours. In the moth-balled board room, he opened by lighting a cigarette & asked, "so what did you not like about the plan?" Almost exactly like this:
Nice little Sunday? $BBBY & $HD? what about 🧥? Here’s a #chartstravaganza on why you should check out $SDRY.LN fresh lineup & stock. Let’s shop!
1/ there’s perhaps no better recovery play. Valuation relative to growth expectations make it a coiled spring.
2/ Investors continue to question the viability of Superdry'a brand due to prior management errors and Covid-19.. $SDRY.LN stock is down -87% since 2018, significantly underperforming the FTSE250
3/ In any hands other than the father of the brand, we'd agree with the skeptics. But Julian doggedly disagrees with skeptics, and has been putting his money where his mouth is - with recent purchases this week.
1/ the next big trade seems almost too obvious that it’s going to be a boring company / value revival. I’ve been debating with friends (@GreenhavenRoad@AboveAvgOdds@LaughingH20Cap@Dan_Roller@macrotwain) over the past couple of days, and most are skeptical, so here’s my case.
2a/ when I say value, I’m using @mjmauboussin's term, paying less than what a co. is worth, which I think >90% of investors still do. The trick is, is it worth less than a fair value in ‘20, ‘22, or ‘25-26 value, as many are justifying today?