If you have an interest in container shipping / freight rates, let me know what you think here. We're doing work on the short side to protect our transport-exposed positions (mostly $BOL.FP) and are looking at timing. Here's where the debate stands - would love input. 🧵 1/ order book for new container ships is massive- 23% of current fleet, while not a peak from % perspective, it means a tremendous amount of new capacity coming online in 23 & 24. In fact, notional capacity added in 2023-2024 will be the same as 2007-2008, which was no bueno.

There are a LOT of things on sale right now, $AML.LN is in our top 5 & agnostic to market rotations occurring. What other co. profit warns & goes up (yesterday) because it's so washed out? Let’s take a (fast) lap 🏎🏁

Aston Martin mini-thesis🧵 1/ It's not easy to revive a brand, but it helps if you have a century of performance & global awareness.  But after an epic channel stuffing IPO collapsed shortly after, too many 🇬🇧 investors have been burned by 007's preferred wheels.

Going to weigh in on $TWTR only because I love pain.

1/ Today's reaction on $TWTR reminds me a lot of May 6, 2014. I was in Detroit. $FCAU unveiled its ambition to grow volumes from 4.4 million to 7 million. The stock closed down 11.7%. Sergio bought shares that day. 2/ Investors associated the stock reaction with a communication & management failure- which was really lost on me. After being "burned," no buy-siders bothered to attend the late day "chat" with Sergio... it was only that skeleton crew in the distance

Nice little Sunday? $BBBY & $HD? what about 🧥? Here’s a #chartstravaganza on why you should check out $SDRY.LN fresh lineup & stock. Let’s shop!

1/ there’s perhaps no better recovery play. Valuation relative to growth expectations make it a coiled spring. 2/ Investors continue to question the viability of Superdry'a brand due to prior management errors and Covid-19.. $SDRY.LN stock is down -87% since 2018, significantly underperforming the FTSE250

Mini $BOL.FP #chartstravaganza. Allons-y!

1 / $VIV.FP buying back ~1.5% shares / week at a stub enterprise value of... 0. In next 2 months, self-buyout via ORPA should launch. 2/ Then $BOL.FP trades for less than the value of its $UMG shares. So basically in 2 months, we will own businesses that generate ~€1.4 billion of EBIT/FCF for.... free... while the share count rapidly shrinks.

1/ the next big trade seems almost too obvious that it’s going to be a boring company / value revival. I’ve been debating with friends (@GreenhavenRoad @AboveAvgOdds @LaughingH20Cap @Dan_Roller @macrotwain) over the past couple of days, and most are skeptical, so here’s my case. 2a/ when I say value, I’m using @mjmauboussin's term, paying less than what a co. is worth, which I think >90% of investors still do. The trick is, is it worth less than a fair value in ‘20, ‘22, or ‘25-26 value, as many are justifying today?

https://twitter.com/mjmauboussin/status/1329019808323686400?s=20