TLDR the two epidemics theme continues and the impact of summer infections on long covid is becoming evident... 1/13
On vaccination, we've started on 12-15s but roll out is slower than it was for 16-17s... and in younger age groups we are substantially behind Scotland who have been using walk in clinics for teens.2/13
For boosters, we've now given a quarter of 80+ their booster and rollout is progressing. When the programme started, 3.5m people were already elgibile for their booster - we've got a bit of work to catch up to all the eligibles as soon as we can! 3/13
In terms of cases, UK has gone quite a bit last 2 days. Age, region etc are lagged by a few days (date of test) so I'm not sure why at the moment!
By nation for date of test (lagged), looks like cases flattening in all countries.
Positivity flattening in NI and England. 4/13
For hospitalisations, occupancy is declining in each nation (good).
For admissions, the persistent much higher admissions in the North & Midlands vs the South East continues. As we go into winter the NHS covid pressures are not being felt equally. 5/13
Deaths have started going down now which is good news. This reflects the shift of cases into children who are at much lower risk of death.
Case rates have been declining/flat in 60+ for past few weeks and this is now leading to fewer deaths. 6/13
Cases in children remain far higher than in adults. It looks as if cases might have peaked for now but they are still incredibly high - the most recent ONS infection survey (random testing) found *7%* of secondary school kids had Covid in week to 2nd Oct.
7/13
We are also seeing climbing hospital admissions in 6-17 year olds (but rates much much less than adults).
That said, children are in the eye of the pandemic still from their point of view. 8/13
ONS released its latest long covid report of people self-reporting symptoms for longer than 4 weeks after getting Covid.
There has been a big jump in people reporting Long Covid who were infected over the summer (<8 weeks before 5 September).
This is the consequence of high cases over July & early August 10/13
Age group that has seen the biggest rise are 17-24 yr olds - the exact group that had the higest infections in July.
People working in hospitality also reported big increases - hospitality is high risk and people working their have little control over their environment. 11/13
Unfortunately with continued high cases, we are likely to see more increases in people reporting Long Covid, and will be disproportionately in people exposed to infection. Risky workplaces are part of that.
That said, hopefully increasing vax rates will reduce long covid. 12/13
Internationally, case and death rates are much lower in much of West & Northern Europe than in UK / England.
Quick thread on current Covid situation in England and Long Covid.
I have Thoughts about the Inquiry Report published yesterday but am still trying to organise them.
TLDR: high Covid levels remain, Long Covid remains 1/11
This wave is not over. While the number of admissions with Covid remains lower than the autumn/winter waves, it has now remained highsh for several weeks.
This means there are a lot of people out there getting sick - and having their work, plans and holidays disrupted. 2/11
Scottish wastewater data to 9 July shows a sharp decrease, suggesting that prevalence might be on its way down.
Obviously Scotland and England can have different dynamics, but it’s the best we’ve got as long as England refuses to analyse its own wastwater. 3/11
THREAD: Given tomorrow's election, I've been thinking about our nation's (poor) health, the wider determinants of health and how these have worsened and what it means for policy....
TLDR: worrying only about NHS & social care is missing the point
let's dive in... 1/25
The UK has a health problem. After steady gains in life expectancy for decades, it flatlined during the austerity years and fell for the first time this century with the Covid pandemic.
The number of people out of work for long term sickness is near record levels. 2/25
There are huge inequalities between rich & poor. Boys born in the most deprived areas can expect to die almost 10 years earlier than their peers in the least deprived areas.
Even worse, they can expect to spend 18 fewer years of their life in good health (52 vs 70 years) 3/25
As ever, I am getting lots of pushback.
Here is a compilation of the European countries I've found with recent wastewater data. Some are going up a bit, some down a bit, some are flat, none are anywhere near previous peaks.
I can't see anything here to be panic anyone. 1/3
I can't find the dashboard for Spain, but others saying it is in a wave. Perhaps it is. England has just had one - the last data we had (a couple of weeks ago from Bob Hawkins) looked as if our wave had peaked.
So, I'm not seeing reason to think things are terrible here! 2/3
Yes there are new variants growing right now. They are not growing faster than JN.1 grew in December and that wave did not end up as bad as feared.
Clearly it remains true that Covid is NOT a seasonal disease (unlike Flu and RSV)
3/3
Quick thread on the Astra Zeneca (AZ) covid vaccine since it's been in the news today.
TLDR there isn't a new "smoking gun", the AZ vax was one of first and cheapest, it saved millions of lives globally, there are better vax out there now, adapted to new variants 1/9
the AZ vaccine was one of the first approved at the end of 2020, cheaper than Pfizer, and - importantly - easier to administer in lower resource settings as it didn't require super low temperatures for storage 2/9
In most countries it was first rolled out in older adults. As it was rolled out in younger adults, a *very rare*, serious, side effect was noticed - it could cause deadly blood clots
This was spotted quickly and studied. Vax monitoring did its job. 3/9
A short thread on why this is not a scary chart and why all the evidence suggests that there is not much Covid around right now. 1/6
the above chart is recorded covid hospital admissions / reported covid cases. It is close to 100% now *because basically only hospitals can report cases since Feb 2024*
It is to do with changes in case reporting and NOT hospital testing
2/6