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Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
@aedwardslevy
Oct 8, 2021 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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survey research is so weird Image
department of aggressive quotation marks Image
where people sometimes post their thoughts Image
"BASED ON --149-- CELL PHONE OWNERS WHO HAVE PHOTO CAPABILITY" Image
[ROTATED: you wish they had stopped making [Star Wars] movies after the first three, you are happy they made the three most recent movies, but do not want them to make any more, or you wish they would make three more movies in the series]? Image
for some reason, "miserable" is almost understandable to me here but "pretty unhappy" is utterly baffling Image
batman Image
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More from @aedwardslevy

Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
Aug 8, 2023
New from us:

Americans’ discontent with the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade remains as potent as a year ago, with record-high share saying they’re likely to take a candidate’s position on abortion into consideration when voting.

cnn.com/2023/08/08/pol…
There's a lot in the piece, but I do just want to pull out this slightly wonky crosstab on "cross-pressured" voters, which demonstrates nicely why any attempt to measure an issue's electoral impact is so complicated.

https://t.co/9l3EQS9e2Wcnn.com/2023/08/08/pol…
Image
Anyways, this is one of those keep-several-things-in-mind stories:

-Econ issues still dominate
-Salience of abortion has risen, particularly on left
-Electoral effects depend on if issue matters to swing/inconsistent voters
-In close races, even small effects can be crucial
Read 6 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
Jun 27, 2023
oh, wow, nearly half of registered voters say they're not satisfied with the two major presidential candidates and want other choices!

also, did I mention it is the year 2008 and the candidates are John McCain and Barack Obama
same story in May 2000 with Bush/Gore
and Carter/Reagan in 1980
Read 5 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
May 23, 2023
General polling rule of thumb: the degree to which public opinion on an issue is responsive to framing tweaks tells you a lot about how stable/deeply held those opinions are.
(Obviously, this is one of the high variance cases. A good counter example: there have been a ton of polls asking about striking down Roe in various ways that all produce basically similar results to the effect of its being highly unpopular.)
(Another counter example: you can ask the public any number of ways, and cutting Social Security is still not going to be popular.)
Read 5 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
Apr 3, 2023
From our new poll: "Sixty percent of Americans approve of the indictment of former President Donald Trump...About three-quarters of Americans say politics played at least some role in the decision to indict Trump."

cnn.com/2023/04/03/pol…
"A scant 10% overall see Trump as blameless regarding payments made to Daniels...About 4 in 10 say he acted illegally (37%), 33% unethically but not illegally, and another 20% say they aren’t sure."

cnn.com/2023/04/03/pol…
"About three in 10 say the decision strengthens US democracy (31%) and an identical share say it weakens democracy (31%). Roughly a quarter say it has no effect on democracy (23%) and 15% are unsure."

cnn.com/2023/04/03/pol…
Read 4 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
Apr 2, 2023
inbox: national association of republican crossword constructors endorses ASA (3) hutchinson

(this is, should it need to be said, a joke about crossword fill)
help
campaign consultant who only speaks in palindromes, unveiling new slogan: "Asa ran AR. Asa!"
Read 4 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
Apr 2, 2023
i can't be the first person to make this joke but it would be so great if an orchestra hall rolled out a "high wind advisory" right before every piccolo solo
tbh it's eminently possibly that this is also not the first time I have made this joke
and now I'm stuck trying to find if there are any symphonies with piccolo solos
Read 5 tweets

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