Thread by @JakubWondreys

#czech elections ended with a victory of the (nominally) liberal-right. Here, some of my takeaways #volby #threat

Yes, Babis lost. Still, ANO received 27.2% of vote shares, remaining the biggest single party. Compared to 2017, he lost slightly over 2%, 6 seats, and ~52 000 votes. Thus, not that much really. ANO will also still have the highest number of seats: 72

SPOLU is the big winner of the election. 27.8%, 71 seats and 40k votes more than ANO. Coalition with another coalition-Pirstan gives them clear majority, with the ODS leader, Fiala, a designed PM

Pirstan finished 3rd but given their big expectations, they are clearly one of the losers of the election, especially Pirates and Bartos who seen himself as a new PM. In the preference vote, STAN massacred them and Pirates will prob only have 4 MPs (compared to 22 (!) in 2017)

The far right remains stable. Or better, SPD and Okamura do. Compared to 2017, the party lost about 1% (20k votes) and will now have 20 seats losing 2. “New” subjects have failed (as expected): Tricolor with 2.8% and Volny Blok with 1.3 % will stay out of parliament.

The traditional left is another (if not the) loser of the election. Both social democrats and Communists won’t be in parliament for the first time ever.

Babis is thus not really a loser of the election, rather unification of the opposition and poor showing of the left helped to preclude him of majority. Still, I was not expecting such a big result for SPOLU

Pirates have paid for quite a bad campaign and the anti-campaign of Babis and the far right against them. Often criticized administration of the capital (led by them with ODS in opposition) may have also played a role. With only 4 seats, the future of the party is uncertain.

There is clearly no space for other “new” subjects on the far right. This space is fully occupied by ANO & SPD. This may change if Babis leaves the stage and ANO dissolves, which would probably mean big boost in support for SPD. I’d say the far-right potential is 20-25%.

The left disappearing is probably caused not only by ANO’s (and to some extent SPD) taking over their electorate, but also awful campaigning, lack of ambition and program clarity.