2/ "We construct a correlation risk proxy based on the difference between the option-implied correlation of stock returns (obtained by combining index option prices with prices of options on all index constituents) and the realized correlation for different equity markets."
3/ "For the individual variance risk premiums and 30 day maturities, we find generally stronger evidence of economic and statistical significance than for the index variance risk premiums."
4/ "Using US and European data, we find that the average implied correlations are economically and statistically higher than the realized correlations, which lends support to a positive correlation risk premium."
5/ "Results suggest a strong co-movement among CRs across European and US equity markets. The underlying co-movement could constrain diversification opportunities during periods of enhanced turbulence in international equity markets, when “there is no place to hide.” "
6/ "A global correlation risk premium can explain most of the cross-sectional variation of index option returns. Our conclusion regarding the statistical significance of the correlation risk premium does not change if we add the global average individual variance risk premium."
7/ "Our results are consistent with those of Kelly et al., who find that options provide valuable protection against risks associated with major political events, including elections and summits.
"The lagged correlation risk premium has a positive effect on its current level."
8/ "Almost all average implied (IC) and realized (RC) correlations are larger during the 2008 to 2012 period than during 2002 to 2007, reflecting the effects of the global financial crisis.
"Results are robust to the use of an ex-ante measure of realized correlation."
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1/ Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game (Michael Lewis)
"Baseball was at the center of a story about the possibilities—and limits—of reason. It showed how an unscientific culture responds (or fails to respond) to the scientific method." (p. xiv)
2/ "A small group of undervalued professional players & executives, many of whom had been rejected as unfit for the big leagues, turned themselves into one of the most successful franchises.
"How did one of the poorest teams, the Oakland Athletics, win so many games?" (p. xi)
3/ "Hitting statistics were abundant & had, for James, the powers of language. They were, in his Teutonic coinage, 'imagenumbers.' Literary material. When you read them, they called to mind pictures. He wrote... 'To get 191 hits in a season demands (or seems to) a consistency...
3/ "Value, momentum & defensive/quality applied to US individual stocks has a t-stat of 10.8. Data mining would take nearly a trillion random trials to find this.
"Applying those factors (+carry) across markets and asset classes gets a t-stat of >14."
2/ "The model's four terms describe different life stages for an individual who marries during the sample period. The intercept reflects the average life satisfaction of individuals in the baseline period [all noncohabiting years that are at least one year before marriage]."
3/ " 'How satisfied are you with your life, all things considered?' Responses are ranked on a scale from 0 (completely dissatisfied) to 10 (completely satisfied).
"We center life satisfaction scores around the annual mean of each population subsample in the original population."
1/ Short-sightedness, rates moves and a potential boost for value (Hanauer, Baltussen, Blitz, Schneider)
…
* Value spread remains wide
* Relationship between value and rates is not structural
* Extrapolative growth forecasts drive the value premium
… robeco.com/en-int/insight…
2/ "The valuation gap between cheap and expensive stocks remains extremely wide. This signals the potential for attractive returns going forward."
3/ "We observe a robust negative relationship between value returns and changes in the value spread.
"The intercept of ≈10% can be interpreted as a cleaner estimate of the value premium, given that it is purged of the time-varying effects of multiple expansions & compressions."