Thread by @alexandrosM

I want to investigate the Hector Carvallo situation. This 🧵is likely to become overlong and meandering as I'll try to figure things out in real-time, so if you want to help please tag along, and if you want "just the facts" best to just mute this one and wait for the summary.

I'm aware of 3 main articles I'll try to comb through, and I've read none of them closely. Please comment with other resources.

[1]: buzzfeednews.com/article/stepha…
[2]: rescue.substack.com/p/a-lifeline-f…
[3]: trialsitenews.com/ivermectin-war…

The buzzfeed article is actually quite confusingly written. It seems the summary of the issues Buzzfeed found with Carvallo's work is:

- Numerical issues
- Hospital record
- Provincial record
- Declining to share data (incl. with collaborator)

The "hospital records" claim is essentially this:

There is one more "hospital records" claim, actually:

The "declining to share data" element is documented here, and also Bret Weinstein had shared a similar story on his podcast, a few days before this article came out.

The "provincial records" claim is this:

The numerical issues claim is around ages, genders, and some +1/-1 issues in sums, but most importantly, it seems Carvallo wasn't able to accurately state who worked on the numbers, at least according to Buzzfeed.

The confusing part is that Buzzfeed doesn't do a good job of separating the two papers that it talks about, and essentially treats them as one long study that included both papers. If so, fair enough.

The TSN article is a bit of a puff piece, with very little information of pertinence. The only real relevant fact it adds to the story is the information about how he was asked to stop the study.

Ah, in the RESCUE article there is a story for how the health workers were enrolled, and the hospitals not having records starts to make some sense, especially if they were the smaller participants in the study (haven't confirmed this)

Surprisingly, I'm pretty much out of material here, unless someone has something to share. Steelmanning, I can *almost* build a story around the hospital and provincial registrations, if there was a political campaign against IVM, but declining to share the data is not good.

From the buzzfeed article, it's clear *some* trial happened, but the absence of data without a clear story for declining to share makes me suspect the results may have been overstated or otherwise compromised. Unless something emerges, I'll leave it at this for now.

Like a genie, @enrg42 shows up with more material!

https://twitter.com/enrg42/status/1447412917050109954?s=20

Actually, reading the transcript available there I don't see anything new except for some equivocation from Carvallo. While he was quite pro-vaccine in the buzzfeed piece, he seems far more skeptical here. Not a good look.

Pretty much.

https://twitter.com/JonasGwin/status/1447421080558350337?t=1fR8BFphrg3jeo7NUjhMhw&s=19