Lewis Goodall Profile picture
Oct 11, 2021 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Spent the day filming in the north of England for a piece about care. Labour shortage in the sector getting worse. One large provider we spoke to has over 500 vacancies of 5000 staff. One local authority tried 21 agencies to find an elderly woman care at home: no-one available.
One care home for people with learning disabilities we visited told us they’re relisting vacancy after vacancy after receiving *zero* applications. They’re getting through by asking existing staff to work extra hours, forgo holiday etc but it’s not sustainable.
Not least because there comes a point when it’s not safe. This is a workforce already suffering burnout and exhaustion. We’ve spoken to families who are being refused care and smaller care homes on the point of bankruptcy because they can’t find the staff/accept new residents.
Why is there such a shortage? Perfect storm. It's skilled work- not easy to find people with the right qualities. Covid has led to flight from the sector. Brexit means no more easy access to European labour markets. And so much competition for workers means carers can...
...find work in other industries which isn't so taxing for more money. People (and govt) says the industry should pay more money- some care homes can afford it. But those on local authority funding can only go as far as cash-strapped local authorities will let them...
...and ultimately that's directed by central government. There has been some extra funding from Whitehall but the main "solution" the government has proffered- the NICS rise- won't start to filter through to care (if it ever does) for another three years.
And the risk is that those expensive care homes- for rich people- can afford to buy up what labour is available; local authority homes, which can't, are then left with even bigger problems for those people they need to look after without means.
The problem looks set to get worse after 11th Nov when the government's care home vaccine mandate is introduced. This will require all care home staff (though not as yet those in domiciliary care) to have two doses of vaccine. This is for obvious reasons. But one consequence...
...is that there will be yet more workers lost. At the moment the % of fully vaccinated care home staff is 87.2% as of Oct 7th. By 11th Nov that should go up but it's just an average. In some places it's worse, eg:

Lambeth:80%
Luton: 79.6%
Manchester: 75.9%
Birmingham: 75.2%
Again, that should go up by November 11th but the government’s own middle point projection suggests 7% of the workforce will not be double jabbed in time- that’s 40,000 new vacancies- on top of the 112,000 which already exist.
One care manager we spoke to today said she'd already written to 30 of her staff saying they wouldn't be able to work for her as of Nov 11th because of the vaccine requirement. She holds little hope of being able to replace them, atop of the 500 vacancies she already has.
This isn't just a tragedy for the families concerned- it's a profound public policy problem. What happens when social care can't take patients? The NHS can't discharge them. What do we have a huge problem with? NHS waiting lists. And it's not even winter yet.
And it's an economic problem too. We've talked a lot about productivity recently and the benefits to it of restricting immigration. But here's the flip side: you know what isn't productive? People having to give up work to look after relatives because care isn't available.
DHSC spokesperson: “We appreciate the dedication and tireless efforts of care workers throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. We are providing at least £500 million to support the care workforce as part of the £5.4 billion to reform social care..."
“We're working to ensure we have the right no of staff with the skills to deliver high quality care to meet increasing demands. This includes running regular national recruitment campaigns and providing councils with over £1bn of additional funding for social care this year.”
Much more on this on tonight's @BBCNewsnight. Make sure you're watching- 1030pm BBC2.
One way homes are managing at the moment is by relying ever more on agency staff. But in many places even this is drying up.

Overall, can’t emphasise enough what a crisis this is and threatens to be.
INCYMI last night’s report on the staffing crisis facing the care sector from me and @ScarlettBarter in full. bbc.co.uk/programmes/p09…
One home care provider of 20 years' standing tells me: "It's never, ever been like this. We're constantly recruiting and have no buffer against staff shortages. We've a list of clients in hospital, bed blocking, who could be at home, but none of the care agencies can take them."
"It is a shocking situation and with winter ahead will only get worse."

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Lewis Goodall

Lewis Goodall Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @lewis_goodall

Aug 29
Polling from @Moreincommon_ on Lucy Connolly

More than half think her sentence was too lenient or about right. Only a third that it was too harsh.

Only 18% think politicians should associate themselves her, while 51% think they should actively distance themselves from her.
Turns out the preoccupations of the online right don’t mirror the way population thinks at large- who knew!
Conservative voters are more than twice as likely to say politicians should create distance between themselves and Connolly (48 per cent), than associate themselves with her (22 per cent).
Read 4 tweets
Aug 21
Globally, we're moving back towards an aristocracy of wealth, more akin to the 19th century than the 20th.

Anyone who cares about social justice, about moving away from higher and higher levels of taxation on work, should be very concerned. Time to do something about it.
Some uncomfortable facts

-The top 10% of UK households hold 57% of all wealth, while the bottom 50% own less than 5%.

-The top 1% alone controls 23% of wealth

-Inheritances are soaring: projected to double from £100bn a year (2020) to £200bn by 2040

-Half of all wealth in the UK is now inherited rather than earned, up from about 25% in the 1970s.

-Children of the wealthiest 20% are seven times more likely to remain in the top 20% as adults than children from the poorest fifth

Meanwhile working people are paying higher and higher taxes on their labour. We need to shift towards taxation on inherited wealth and a reduction in taxes on work and consumption. Both for moral and economic reasons. Let's allow people to keep more on what they do NOT what they inherit.
Lots of people accusing me of being communist. No- it's a liberal argument. On this I'll defer to John Stuart Mill, who wrote this in 1848 and would be dismissed as a "commie wanker" today:

"The principle of inheritance… is chiefly grounded on the duty of parents to provide for their children. But that duty has certain limits; and when these are exceeded, the right ceases. Beyond a certain point, to permit the transmission of enormous fortunes is nothing less than to establish a monopoly of wealth, and is wholly opposed to the spirit of a free and equal society.”

I'm being intentionally provocative when I propose a 100% rate. But I certainly think the rate should be much higher than it is today. It has been before in British history (go back to the 1920s) and in other societies- see Japan, S Korea.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 6, 2024
For those waking up in US, bewildered in Europe, what happened?

Have been on air for last 12 hours pouring over the data

Here it is

There's no silver lining for Democrats. Trump won everywhere. He's going to win the popular vote. He did better across the demographics. He grew his coalition, better with black voters, Latinos, young voters. The US become less racially divided by party. Harris underperformed Biden virtually everywhere.

Trump improved on his 2020 margin in 2,367 counties. His margin decreased in only 240 counties.
Trump didn't just sweep up in the swing states, and none of them are going to be that close. He closed the gap on Harris in a tonne of blue states. She turned out anaemic victories in New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Minnesota. He expanded his margins in red states to take huge generationally big victories in Florida and Iowa. He flipped Miami Dade county, winning a heavily Latino county Hillary won by 30 points by 10. He drove down Harris margins in big urban centres everywhere, including Chicago, New York, Austin etc.
This feels a far more devastating loss for the Democrats, even than 2016.

2016 the Dems had plenty of things to console them. A massive popular vote victory. A narrow electoral college loss in a few places. A rock solid ethnic minority coalition which looked like a solid electoral map of the future. Roe was intact. The Supreme Court was still balanced.

They have none of that now. They're staring down the barrel of a transformed Republican Party and a sustained inability to know how to deal with Trump and Magaism. In policy terms, they also have nowhere to go. In Biden's term they governed exactly in line with their own instincts. It's been soundly rejected by the electorate.
Read 8 tweets
Oct 23, 2024
Extraordinary intervention from Donald Trump’s own former Chief of Staff John Kelly. The fmr general says Trump meets the definition of a fascist, would govern like a dictator and has no understanding of the Constitution or the concept of rule of law.

nytimes.com/2024/10/22/us/…
Kelly says: “Certainly the former president is in the far-right area, he’s certainly an authoritarian, admires people who are dictators — he has said that. So he certainly falls into the general definition of fascist, for sure.”
Kelly says Trump would not want to be pictured with amputee veterans saying that “it wouldn’t look good for me.”

Kelly confirms Trump spoke positively of Hitler as president.

“He commented more than once that, ‘You know, Hitler did some good things, too.”
Read 8 tweets
Aug 27, 2024
Thoughts on Starmer speech

Self-evidently highly political. Little in the way of policy, instead a framing of politics to come.

But there’s a paradox to it all
As predicted, Labour are trying to suggest things are worse than they knew. There’s a bit of truth to that though broad contours of state of economy/public realm were known.

We’re clearly in for more pain. Just like, checks notes, the past 14 years.
That itself is an idictment of a generation of policymakers and politics. Voters might be forgiven for thinking they’ve heard all this before. Indeed they have, since George Osborne in 2010. Ernie Bevin said he wanted to be at the Ministry of Labour til 1990, ie to set the terms of thinking on industrial relations for a half century. It sometimes feels like Osborne will be Chancellor til 2050, no matter bow many times his vision of politics/political economy fails. You have to wonder how much more tolerance for it there’s going to be.

If nothing else, politically it was a huge contrast with the politics of optimism at last week’s DNC- instead now we have things are going to get worse before they get better.

Strongest sections of the speech were his diagnosis of the problems of populism and how Tories fell into that reap. Was authentically him and convincing.
Read 8 tweets
Jul 16, 2024
The story of the last time a former president was shot and lived to tell the tale🧵

In October 1912 President Teddy Roosevelt was running for an unprecedented third term in office. He'd left the presidency four years before. On the 12th he was campaigning in Milwaukee. Image
Roosevelt had left the Republicans to found the Progressive Party, also known as the 'Bull Moose' Party.

On the night of the 12th October he was dining at the Gilpatrick Hotel, owned by a supporter. After eating he left to give a speech at the Milwaukee auditorium.

En route he was approached by a man called John Schrank, a German-American tavern owner, originally from Bavaria.Image
Shcrank opened fire on the former president with a Colt revolver. He was quickly wrestled to the ground but not before a bullet penetrated Roosevelt's body.

Fortunately, the bullet hit something else first- TR's glasses case and the folded up copy of his speech, some 50 pages long entitled "Progressive Cause Greater Than Any Individual"- both of which in his coat pocket.
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(