Spent the day filming in the north of England for a piece about care. Labour shortage in the sector getting worse. One large provider we spoke to has over 500 vacancies of 5000 staff. One local authority tried 21 agencies to find an elderly woman care at home: no-one available.
One care home for people with learning disabilities we visited told us they’re relisting vacancy after vacancy after receiving *zero* applications. They’re getting through by asking existing staff to work extra hours, forgo holiday etc but it’s not sustainable.
Not least because there comes a point when it’s not safe. This is a workforce already suffering burnout and exhaustion. We’ve spoken to families who are being refused care and smaller care homes on the point of bankruptcy because they can’t find the staff/accept new residents.
Why is there such a shortage? Perfect storm. It's skilled work- not easy to find people with the right qualities. Covid has led to flight from the sector. Brexit means no more easy access to European labour markets. And so much competition for workers means carers can...
...find work in other industries which isn't so taxing for more money. People (and govt) says the industry should pay more money- some care homes can afford it. But those on local authority funding can only go as far as cash-strapped local authorities will let them...
...and ultimately that's directed by central government. There has been some extra funding from Whitehall but the main "solution" the government has proffered- the NICS rise- won't start to filter through to care (if it ever does) for another three years.
And the risk is that those expensive care homes- for rich people- can afford to buy up what labour is available; local authority homes, which can't, are then left with even bigger problems for those people they need to look after without means.
The problem looks set to get worse after 11th Nov when the government's care home vaccine mandate is introduced. This will require all care home staff (though not as yet those in domiciliary care) to have two doses of vaccine. This is for obvious reasons. But one consequence...
...is that there will be yet more workers lost. At the moment the % of fully vaccinated care home staff is 87.2% as of Oct 7th. By 11th Nov that should go up but it's just an average. In some places it's worse, eg:
Again, that should go up by November 11th but the government’s own middle point projection suggests 7% of the workforce will not be double jabbed in time- that’s 40,000 new vacancies- on top of the 112,000 which already exist.
One care manager we spoke to today said she'd already written to 30 of her staff saying they wouldn't be able to work for her as of Nov 11th because of the vaccine requirement. She holds little hope of being able to replace them, atop of the 500 vacancies she already has.
This isn't just a tragedy for the families concerned- it's a profound public policy problem. What happens when social care can't take patients? The NHS can't discharge them. What do we have a huge problem with? NHS waiting lists. And it's not even winter yet.
And it's an economic problem too. We've talked a lot about productivity recently and the benefits to it of restricting immigration. But here's the flip side: you know what isn't productive? People having to give up work to look after relatives because care isn't available.
DHSC spokesperson: “We appreciate the dedication and tireless efforts of care workers throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. We are providing at least £500 million to support the care workforce as part of the £5.4 billion to reform social care..."
“We're working to ensure we have the right no of staff with the skills to deliver high quality care to meet increasing demands. This includes running regular national recruitment campaigns and providing councils with over £1bn of additional funding for social care this year.”
Much more on this on tonight's @BBCNewsnight. Make sure you're watching- 1030pm BBC2.
One home care provider of 20 years' standing tells me: "It's never, ever been like this. We're constantly recruiting and have no buffer against staff shortages. We've a list of clients in hospital, bed blocking, who could be at home, but none of the care agencies can take them."
"It is a shocking situation and with winter ahead will only get worse."
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As predicted, Labour are trying to suggest things are worse than they knew. There’s a bit of truth to that though broad contours of state of economy/public realm were known.
We’re clearly in for more pain. Just like, checks notes, the past 14 years.
That itself is an idictment of a generation of policymakers and politics. Voters might be forgiven for thinking they’ve heard all this before. Indeed they have, since George Osborne in 2010. Ernie Bevin said he wanted to be at the Ministry of Labour til 1990, ie to set the terms of thinking on industrial relations for a half century. It sometimes feels like Osborne will be Chancellor til 2050, no matter bow many times his vision of politics/political economy fails. You have to wonder how much more tolerance for it there’s going to be.
If nothing else, politically it was a huge contrast with the politics of optimism at last week’s DNC- instead now we have things are going to get worse before they get better.
Strongest sections of the speech were his diagnosis of the problems of populism and how Tories fell into that reap. Was authentically him and convincing.
The story of the last time a former president was shot and lived to tell the tale🧵
In October 1912 President Teddy Roosevelt was running for an unprecedented third term in office. He'd left the presidency four years before. On the 12th he was campaigning in Milwaukee.
Roosevelt had left the Republicans to found the Progressive Party, also known as the 'Bull Moose' Party.
On the night of the 12th October he was dining at the Gilpatrick Hotel, owned by a supporter. After eating he left to give a speech at the Milwaukee auditorium.
En route he was approached by a man called John Schrank, a German-American tavern owner, originally from Bavaria.
Shcrank opened fire on the former president with a Colt revolver. He was quickly wrestled to the ground but not before a bullet penetrated Roosevelt's body.
Fortunately, the bullet hit something else first- TR's glasses case and the folded up copy of his speech, some 50 pages long entitled "Progressive Cause Greater Than Any Individual"- both of which in his coat pocket.
NEW: Donald J. Trump is officially selected as the Republican candidate for president at the RNC in Milwaukee.
He becomes the first person since FDR in 1940 to win his party’s nomination three times on the trot (though unlike Trump he won each time).
The GOP has travelled a long way since those early Never Trump days. It’s indisputably his party now, in personnel, in ideas, in culture and the way it does politics.
That’s despite his refusal to accept the outcome of a presidential election, which led to an insurrection, and the fact he’s been convicted of a crime. It is a political journey without parallel, both personally and for his party.
The selection of Vance again shows the grip on the Republican party Trump now enjoys. In 2016 Trump was forced to choose a more establishment VP (Pence) to try and unite the party behind his candidacy. In Vance he chooses someone in his image, a prodigal son of America First.
The assassination attempt on President Trump is the 1st attempted attack on a presidential candidate for 52 years.
Political violence has a long pedigree in America's history. It haunted its politics in the 1960s. The landscape is darkening again and has been for some time.
Goes without saying that the attempt on Trump's life is heinous and deplorable. There is a lot of blame to go round for the now toxic nature of American politics which long predates Trump personally. However, while the descent of American politics towards renewed political violence did not begin with him it can't be denied he has his own significant part to play. His politics has always been predicated on the idea of existential threat. Of American enemies within and without. He mocked the attack on Nancy Pelosi's husband, downplayed the kidnap plot on Gretchen Whitmer. And then there is the big lie and January 6th which continues to fray the bonds of American democracy.
In other words, Trump has been part of this change in US politics, of the turn to extreme aggression in US politics, which will probably outlast him. It doesn't justify anything in any way, but it does help to explain part of the context of a democracy which increasingly feels a couple of wrong moves from complete disaster. You can't understand that without Trump and the unique way he does politics.
In the meantime, with only four months to go until the US election, this will reframe everything, especially with the RNC about to get underway.
Trump's position within the Republican Party will be solidified even further. That picture will become a symbol of political martyrdom.
Understand that Angela Rayner told DLUHC staff today that “she won’t be doing a Rees mogg with passive aggressive notes, those days are over.”
Also said dept will revert to its former title of “Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Govt.”
If you're in Whitehall and have stories/intel about what the new administration is doing in your dept, let me know. DMs open and anonymity guaranteed.
Official in Dept for Biz: "We've had clear steers on departmental priorities especially in regard to EU. Genuine sense of political cover to seek agreement on issues like recognition of professional qualifications. Reynolds v clear and personable in address to the department."