I am long BTC @ 57,400. 2.5% of capital with 3 catalysts in mind to move Lightning story forward which builds BTC maxi narrative
Twitter/SQ Earnings: Oct 26, Nov 4
Nov 18: El Salvador Lightning Conf @GaloyMoney

1/ Lightning Capacity will likely be a hockey stick into the events
2/ Lightning is important because
a] it enables global adoption of Bitcoin as currency, powering things like El Salvador's Chivo wallet
b] Layer 2 allows apps - including NFTs to run directly on bitcoin, creating a story for fees can displace the block reward in the long run
3/ ETH story around NFTs, artwork likely is forgetting things like Satoshi.Place pictured below built on top of lightning network. Layer 2s provide theoretically higher TPS and interoperability with Twitter via strike.me . Twitter already verifying NFTs
4/ It is fairly clear from strike.me plus the recent integration of lightning tipping on Twitter, that Twitter intends on using the lightning network to enable the creator economy on its platform. This will likely be brought up on both $TWTR and $SQ earnings
5/ Going into events Biden approval rating is tanking, lowering ability to move forward aggressive and/or politically unpopular green legislation, including caps on Bitcoin mining in the United States. Gensler referred to Satoshi in hearings as "Satoshisan" lowering SEC risk
6/ Even if electricity concerns do come to the fore, $MARA earnings on November 15 likely to highlight this slide from September investor day saying that Bitcoin mining will be 100% carbon neutral by FY 2022. This is probably false but will be repeated by Cathie Wood/Dorsey
7/ You'll notice the conspicuous absence of crypto in @vonderleyen speech's at the EU sustainable energy summit. This removes some regulatory risk going into November and year end and favors the downtrend in ETHBTC continuing -- making Bitcoin favored flow destination
8/ You also have substantial ETH headline risk from @Paradigm_fund et al raising $5b+ for ETH killers. This is + the >90x distribution from @multicoincap. Multicoin and Paradigm are likely to echo the sentiment that "ETH has a lot of competition but BTC is money", favoring BTC
9/ Overnight news that China is injecting liquidity into markets removes some of the overhang of Tether risk. There is a somewhat perverse reason for US regulators to delay investigations into Tether as doing so could cause reflexive problems in the Chinese debt markets
10/ I'd further add that BTC has been substantially derisked now that mining attacks from China are less likely (the criticism was that Bitcoin was centralized in China). The ban hasn't led to substantial hash power decline which is also reassuring re: network security
12/ Assuming venture flows keeps overall market around current valuation and BTC dominance goes back to 65% area which feels warranted given derisking and lightning catalyst - this could take us to $80k Bitcoin though I'll likely be trimming around $70k. Would add at $48k
11/ Between now and Nov 18 things that would cause me to cut the trade.
A] BTC miners cause rolling blackout
B] Paradigm / Andreesen trash the lightning network
C] Lightning Network failures / Chivo wallet glitches into El Salvador event
D] BTC doesn't come up on TWTR earnings
12/ Longer term I think BTC dominance will be undoing of the crypto asset class as a whole as things like the lightning network mean that Bitcoin will be the primary place for non monetary use cases. Fresh VC funds will get redeemed when they underperform BTC. Problem for tmrw
13/ TLDR: crypto funds: BTC :: long/short equities : S&P. Long beta, underperforming with high fees. will meet with a similar fate except the underlying assets are a lot worse so won't be able to easily sold. Smart money will see this early and prefer BTC, helping BTCD
14/ I'll tweet if I ditch this before Nov 18. and will likely re-up this on TWTR earnings call as a check in. Going to be using this site as a simple trade journal for a while. moving my other content to onlyfans (jk). Thanks everyone for well wishes while I was taking a break.

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More from @goodalexander

12 Oct
I took a .5% position in Roblox $RBLX Nov 19'21 75 Calls for $3.5 to play a strong Nov 16 investor day. Data tracking in spite of back to school and a metaverse focused catalyst calendar I think can send the stock back to the $85 area

1/ Exhibit 1: Web Tracking data is surging Image
2/ This spike in traffic is surprising and corresponds with good app store performance. In Roblox's September investor day the CFO cautioned investors that back to school might see some decelerating usage. After seeing a brief dip to #50 in iOS we are stabilizing back near #20 Image
3/ Roblox sells Robux tokens to players. Investors appreciate in game currency as an effective revenue model. For example, the crypto game Axie Infinity has 1.5 million daily active players and a $32 billion market cap compared to Roblox 46 million players and $40b market cap ImageImage
Read 17 tweets
5 Sep
Some markets related reading I've done past 2 months I found actionable/interesting:
1/ IESE Biz School Paper on equity risk premium in 88 different countries in relation to risk free rate. Nice because it has standardized results going back to 2008. poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?I… Image
2/ Paper on run up into the close -- hedging intraday demand -- fairly robust discussion of all major asset markets. TLDR it's worth studying how momentum/ mean reversion plays out statistically in stuff you trade going into the close. long backtest
www3.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.… Image
3/ Marc Andreesen on crypto. Think we're seeing some (rumored) monster venture flows into the space next few months which is part of price action and this piece helped catch decent amount of ETH move marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…
Read 9 tweets

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