Coronavirus Travel Country Stats to 11th October

I can nearly stop doing these updates I think and retire back into obscurity , but we'll wait until the 🟥 list is completely gone

Overall last weeks announcement was about as good as we could have hoped

All countries data for


Oceania not included, no data other than Australia/NZ already in main dataset.

NB - Especially in Africa some countries do very little testing so case numbers unreliable.

In Europe the last(?) Delta wave continues to spread around Eastern Europe with Baltics & Romania getting quite high now.

Everywhere else either low, stable or falling .. Nothing to worry about for European Travel really.

Beyond Europe rates remain high in some of the Caribbean.

Barbados now the most infected country in the world, rest of the region though looks to have peaked and is declining.

No other global regions look concerning at all , Covid seems in retreat pretty much everywhere !

Announcement was great news for almost everywhere

- The 🟥 list 'last stand' is against 'Mu' variant ( won't last long )
- Unexpectedly welcome extension of 💉 cert acceptance for many more countries
- Dept of Health digging their heels in on PCR tests post travel.

We're left with the 🟥 red list targeting 7 countries in the Americas with presumed presence of the 'Mu' variant as I guess it would have a South America flavour.

All 7 countries show low case rates (~10x lower than UK, though for Haiti & Venezuela esp data may be thin)

It's hard to see this stance being sustainable for very long, from what I've read of the science it seems illogical and probably based on old data too.

It might take more than 3 weeks, but not much more .. The Red List will wither then to nothing hopefully

On the 💉certification this was not expected and is to be welcomed. I and others were very critical of the previous list for being too short and appearing rather biased towards richer/whiter countries.… is a lot better now, but more to do.

The change from PCR to Lateral Flow testing 'in October' clearly is subject to some debate and seems to be (along with the 'Mu' variant 🟥 list) what the Dept. of Health and others have pushed back on

In my view if they had to pick something to complain on I'll live with it

In the short term the best we'll get is 'supervised'/'verified' lateral flow tests being permitted

Supervised LFTs won't be much cheaper or much less hassle than £40 PCR tests, so the gain will be marginal

I'll trade that for next to no Red list / better 💉cert acceptance

I'll keep updating these stats weekly, at least until the death of 🟥

I suspect the action will move to the lifting of rules/restrictions on destinations.

Much harder to keep track of systematically so I won't be doing so, but will post things of interest when I see them.

I suspect (with the probable exception of Oz/NZ/China) that things might go quicker than we imagine here.

I hadn't expected Thailand to open up so quickly for example (given previous crazy rules)…

Hopefully there'll be much more such good news

Remember travel isn't just about holidays

Data from converted by me into the ECDC format used for European travel decisions.

Spreadsheet here…


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