There were 10.4 million job openings at the end of August -- down from July, but still near a record high. #JOLTS
Hiring also fell, and unlike openings has been slow to rebound over all -- only modestly above prepandemic levels.
The number of unemployed workers per job opening ticked up ever so slightly in August, but there are still more jobs than available workers.
(Note: This chart adjusts for workers misclassified as "employed.")
A record 4.3 million people voluntarily quit their jobs in August, a sign that workers believe they have leverage amid talk of a labor shortage.
Quits are especially elevated in leisure and hospitality, where wages are rising quickly and businesses are struggling to hire. But quits are elevated across a range of industries.
Hires and openings both dropped sharply in leisure and hospitality in August, however. (Although openings are still very high.) Consistent with the Delta-driven slowdown we've seen in other data.
One measure of hiring difficulty is the ratio of hires to openings. The base level varies by industry, so have to compare to pre-Covid level. Shows hiring has become harder across industries, but especially in services and retail.
Note that the relationship between hires and openings has changed over time -- it takes more openings to produce one hire than it used to. (Perhaps due to ease of online job postings?) But the ratio has plummeted during Covid.
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This story is generating lots of reaction. Which is good! I think it's an important story. But also a nuanced one. And so a few points I think it's worth making, in a Saturday evening 🧵:
1. I'm getting lots of comments about how this is obviously political manipulation of the economic numbers. I don't think this is as cut-and-dry a case as it might look to some people.
For one thing, there are very real issues with the CPI's legal services index. See this screenshot -- the index hasn't been published regularly since early 2023. So looking for an alternative data source is hardly crazy on its face.
OK, so I imagine everyone has moved on from this by now, but since I finally have a few minutes, I thought I'd do a quick thread explaining this, since it is FAR from intuitive.
The question @TheStalwart is asking here is very reasonable. If year-over-year inflation is calculated by measuring the price level in November 2025 and comparing it to the price level in November 2024, then nothing that happens in the middle should matter.
But with shelter (and to some degree with other things, but I'm going to stick with shelter here), we *don't* actually calculate inflation that way. At least not really.
It's #jobsday! Except it isn't, because of the government shutdown. Which means that we're left sifting through alternative data sources to try to figure out what's going on in the labor market.
So, what are those sources telling us? A 🧵:
Start with job growth: Measures from ADP, Revelio, LinkedIn, etc., all tell subtly different stories, but they mostly agree on the big picture. After slowing dramatically over the summer, private-sector job growth has remained weak, but it hasn't necessarily slowed much further.
A few quick #JOLTS 📈:
Starting with: Job openings are way down from their peak, but they've fallen slowly if at all in recent months. No obvious sign that labor demand is falling off a cliff.
But it IS getting harder to find a job. There is now less than one job opening per unemployed worker. Not a low rate by historical standards, but definitely weaker than just before the pandemic (and way weaker than at the peak of the reopening boom).
The hiring rate (gross hiring, not the net job change we measure in the Friday jobs reports) has been below its long-run average for more than a year. It had seemed like it was leveling off, but might be falling again now, though hard to say definitively just yet.
President Trump didn't like the jobs numbers, so he fired the person responsible for producing them.
It's a move that has been tried before, by leaders of countries from Argentina to Greece to the Soviet Union. It rarely ends well.
(Link at end of thread)
Janet Yellen, not a person prone to hyperbole, put it this way: “This is the kind of thing you would only expect to see in a banana republic."
Key point from Andreas Georgiou, who was criminally prosecuted for insisting on reporting accurate deficit figures when he was head of Greece's statistical agency: Reliable data is essential for democracy.
CBO is out with its final cost estimate of the tax-and-spending bill passed by the House.
- Revenue ⬇️ by $3.7 trillion over 10 years
- Spending ⬇️ by $1.3 trillion
- Debt ⬆️ by $2.4 trillion over 10 years
- Uninsured pop. ⬆️ by 10.9 million in 2034
Full analysis: cbo.gov/publication/61…
The spending cuts mostly come from Medicaid ($344 billion over 10 years), food stamps and related programs ($295 billion) and the Affordable Care Act ($132 billion).
Note that these estimates don't take into account the macroeconomic impacts of the policy changes (it is not "dynamic" in wonk parlance). So to the extent tax/spending cuts affect economic growth, that will also affect revenues. CBO is working on an analysis that estimates these effects.