It appears the very wet Northern Hemisphere, and accompanying peculiar weather phenomena may finally be coming to an end.
The focus on extreme weather will now move to the Southern Hemisphere for the next 6-8 months.
It's not quite over yet, but the forecasts appear to be in agreement that the unusually intense tropical storm activity around the planet is about to stop - and the forecast arrival of a La Nina ENSO condition is a big part of this >> cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy…
Moving east to west this thread will survey the tropical belt beginning here in West Pacific, which is not quite finished yet, as you can see.
As we move west, in the direction of the flow of the tropical atmospheric mega-river, this thread will provide first a 24 snapshot of current conditions plus a 10-day model forecast of what's expected to follow. In the West Pacific that includes quite a lot more rain.
In the above forecast we see a dramatic reduction in the strength of the tropical monsoon over 10 days. One which will be I expect welcome in a region that has born the brunt of extreme weather over the course of the year.
Here we see the Indian Ocean over the past 12 hours.
The Indian Ocean plays a role as a valve on the intensity of the tropical mega-river, when it is running hot the monsoon spreads north west and excess moisture is transits SW over the Middle East as well as NE over the Himalayas into central and East Asia.
In the above forecast we see the next SEA/Pacific powered monsoon burst over the Bay of Bengal and India quickly suppressed by dry air coming in from the north west.
And this may finally signal the end of the Horn of Africa Rainy Season.
Here's a 10 day forecast for ME and HoA region, whilst history suggests there's still a possibility of cyclones spinning up in the Arabian Sea through December, the picture we see here is likely to finally bring fairly clear skies over Ethiopia.
In North Africa the southward migration of the ITCZ Intertropical Convergence Zone (i.e. monsoon) is now very obvious in areas west of Chad.
This sector has another interesting feature a jet heading north from East Africa carrying moisture into the Levant.
Here's a forecast from the rain positive KMA forecast for the impact of this late season monsoon jet's impact in the Levant.
And here's a 10 day forecast for the horn of Africa, beyond the next five days there's not a lot of rain forecast for western and highland areas. And Tigray is clear for the full period.
When we look at North Africa the migration south of the ITCZ (Intratropical Convergence Zone = Monsoon) southwards is particularly obvious with the Sahel now mostly clear of clouds except in the East.
And here we see what may be a final set of Sahel rain storms moving west across the continent over the next 10 days.
Moving further west we see two active storms in the West Atlantic, one of which is a hurricane that is set to make landfall in Mexico and head towards Texas. We also continuation of the turbulent weather in the North Atlantic.
But with an end to fresh fuel coming in from the West African Monsoon this zone is also forecast to become a little calmer on the airborn moisture front.
For now Europe remains a cauldron of storm activity, the persistent nearly stationary storm which has been over Italy and the Adriatic has finally moved East and is probably contributing to the rain forecast over the Levant.
And finally to complete the picture we have Eurasia, the great land mass from Eastern Europe through Central Asia to the northern West Pacific coast. For now its still pretty busy.
But with winter heading in from the North West there is not a lot of additional moisture forecast from here on, especially in the Eastern half, just a growing mass of dark cold dry air.
The final animation shows the forecast atmospheric configuration for the Southern Hemisphere for then next 16 days. And here we can see a fair bit of moisture headed NZ and Australia's way.
However if the ENSO predictions are correct and a La Nina is setting in for a few months, that should bring some relief as soon as the tropical moisture massed over South East Asia clears.
As we enter a moment of reflection following the death of Nasrallah, the impetus of the peace effort to resolve this crisis has now moved to the Arab States and the Gulf Cooperation Council.
The second major player in this new phase of this conflict resolution issue is the United Nations, which is - thanks to this year old war against mostly civilians - now facing an unprecedented crisis.
A crisis in global confidence.
It is apparent to anyone or nation- who has eyes to see or ears to listen - clear that the U.N. System has completely failed. And as a result the UN System itself is now on trial.
In other words. The Post WWII Western Nation dominated « Rules Based Order » is now itself on trial in the global court of public opinion.
In Gaza, and Lebanon, and now in New York it has very clearly failed.
(/1 of several) VIDEO THREAD:
Why does the Israel lobby still exist? with Ilan Pappé via @YouTube
History - this @ Electronic Intifada interview with preeminent 20th and 21st Century Israeli Conflics Historian Ilan Pappé is 2 months old , but it remains super relevant as a starting point. Patience is required but it is well worth it.
It focuses on the role of the Israeli Lobbies, particularly in the UK and the U.S. and includes specific exemplar discussions of on
- Senator Fullbright vs the U.S. Israel Lobby I.e. AIPAC
- Jeremy Corbyn vs The UK Israel Lobby (2017 to 2019)
(/2) The Looming Catastrophe in the Middle East (w/ Gideon Levy) | Chris Hedges Interview.
Gideon Levy’s discussion here is contemporaneous and also based on a new book. His prognosis of the corrupt state of Israeli politics and the international response is not at all positive.
I.E. they have now run out of options. And Netanyahu is now in a bind.
If Netanyahu / Israel has more tricks up its sleeve to address this remains to be seen.
But the overall construction here following Nasrallah’s remarks is pretty clear and it looks like Israel is not in a position to invade Lebanon. If they were they would have done so yesterday or the day before.
This is helpful to the Biden Administration I’d argue.
Hezbollah’s unambiguous response saying that they will only stop attacks on the northern front if there is a ceasefire in Gaza is Chrystal clear.
And this is what the American Administration also wants.
So perhaps we will see something more demonstrative. Firing missiles into the sea or the desert would be unfortunate for the fishes and camels. But it may allow the Axis to make their point without leading to a regional war that could so easily spiral completely out of control. /2
Alternatively, far better, and perhaps more effective as a prelude would be a united Arabic diplomatic response with a new peace proposal.
The U.S. is clocked out for the election and such a move could potentially lower the temperature and assist with the ultimate goal. /3
National Harris vs Trump Polls (reverse chronological order)
note: He’s only ahead in one poll since September 11th (so FOX’s desperate flag hugging effort had zero impact) and in that one poll only by 2 points whereas Harris has several 4-5 point margins.
2/2
And if you go back to late August he’s only ahead in four polls. In three of them by 1 point and the other by just 2. All of them statistical ties.
Frankly the only way I can think of to interpret this is that Israel is seeking to draw the U.S. Armada which is currently approaching Israel to establish a defensive shield over Israel into a wider war.
Yesterday was the Jewish Shabbat. Today is the Christian Sabbath. This is Netanyahu’s last stand, yet another attempt to start a regional war with the objective of dragging the U.S. into the war with Iran that he has been trying to engineer for the last few months.
He knows that a Kamala Harris Presidency will possibly be less cautious. He is concerned that a progressive administration in the White House will not tolerate his approach to Israeli security, the war he is currently waging and the long-term extremist right wing objective of driving all Palestinians out of Israel.
But to secure the space for this outcome he Israel needs a regional war with U.S. involvement to degrade Hezbollah and Iranian military capacity.
In the short term here and now he needs to blow up the talks in Cairo which are now on the threshold it seems of delivering a ceasefire agreement.
All parties to this conflict and the international community more broadly need to continue to calibrate their responses to not give him what he wants.
This morning’s events should be allowed to die down, and absent a major escalation by Hezbollah and Iran they should do so readily.
The world know knows who is responsible for continuing this horror show. The U.S. and Israel.
This morning when the U.S. wakes up it should be helped to see once again the stark reality here. That Israel under Netanyahu has become a rogue state, threatening the peace of the entire Middle East, and threatening to drag U.S. airmen and soldiers into a war that no-one sane in either the U.S., Europe, or indeed anyone on the planet wants.
Maintaining self control at this moment is therefore vital. And Netanyahu will then lose. He will not get his regional war and Israel will have to agree to a ceasefire.youtube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0…
Meanwhile…
/2 Israeli bombardments in Gaza kill several as polio vaccination continues... … via @YouTube
/3 & perhaps most significantly a mass mobilisation for a ceasefire has now become a General Strike.
« A major nationwide strike is now underway across Israel.
The largest trade union says it wants to pressure the government of Benjamin Netanyahu into signing a Gaza ceasefire and captive release deal with Hamas.
The action was called after the bodies of six Israeli captives were recovered from a tunnel in southern Gaza on Saturday.
Hamas has blamed Israeli air strikes for the deaths of those six captives whose bodies were recovered on Saturday.
Israel says they were found with bullet wounds.
Dozens of people attended a vigil for one of the six, Israeli-American Hersh Goldberg-Polin.
Israeli finance minister Bezalel Smotrich is trying to halt the general strike.
He's asked the attorney general to impose a ban - saying the industrial action will have significant economic consequences.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid has called for a complete government shutdown.
Udi Goren, a member of the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, spoke to Al Jazeera from the Israeli Knesset in West Jerusalem, where the group has been speaking to parliament members amid an ongoing general strike calling on Netanyahu to reach a deal with Hamas for the release of the remaining captives. »