David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 12, 2021 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
As promised, worth taking some time over a remarkable speech, one that demonstrates the UK government seeing the world quite differently to the common understanding of others. gov.uk/government/spe…
First, possibly uniquely in the world the UK has no interest in influencing its neighbour's choices, covering 50% of our trade. Even the US and China want to influence EU regulations, recognising their importance, but not the UK.
I doubt there are too many trade specialists in the world who think customs practicalities are more important than trade regulations, though energy suppliers will certainly be important. But yes, lobbying Portugal will apparently be more important than the EU. Its a view.
Moving on, we have the incredible proposition of England, after some of the longest lockdowns in Europe, being the free-est. And the brave prediction that our checks will be less than those of the EU, which is unlikely across the whole range of trade in goods and services.
After describing EU member states as in effect undemocratic we then have a new definition of populism, as basically equalling democracy. This is less a new statement than a peculiar form of diplomacy to insult all of your neighbours.
The next section consists of a long complaint about the EU accepting no fault whatsoever on the part of the UK. This doesn't sound like a country wanting to work constructively, rather like one that thinks it would all be better if things were just done its way.
I think this is another remarkable statement, on the Northern Ireland protocol, to the extent of suggesting we broke it ("maybe there is a world in which the protocol could have worked, more sensitively implemented") and you have to fix it.
This paragraph introduces another element to the speech, of patronising the audience. We understand this issue, and you do not. So do as we say. It of course ignores that there are experts on Northern Ireland in the EU.
After discussing revised proposals for Northern Ireland, repeating a UK line of five and a half years, we move on to a view of Northern Ireland ignoring the seminal 1998 agreement, possibly outright offensively to at least two other countries. Interesting approach.
Having insulted the presumably intended audience, finishing with a plea for unity is not I suspect going to land well with them, either in the EU or US. There might have been a speech which would, but unfortunately this wasn't it. And the view of trade, well [shudders]. /end

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More from @DavidHenigUK

May 19
Since I'm feeling generous, shall we take Conservative and Reform opposition to today's UK-EU agreement at its word and see what would happen - assuming of course this government actually completes what is currently merely intent.

Clue... back to Brexit chaos... 🧵
Let's start with SPS, a future Conservative / Reform government pulls out of alignment, so immediately barriers come back up between Dover and Calais, and indeed GB and NI (we'll come back to the latter). Exports fall again, and imports need to be checked again...
Free to set our own SPS rules, Reform accepts US food standards and does some further trade deal, the Conservatives don't. In the first case, revolt in the countryside, in the second, merely more turbulence without any extra trade deals, in both, few extra exports to the US
Read 7 tweets
Apr 14
"UK political culture seems to be fixated on maintenance of the ‘special relationship’ just as much as it is on treating relations with the nearby European Union with scepticism".

That has implications for UK trade policy.

My latest @ECIPE blog. ecipe.org/blog/trumps-ta…
A mid-sized power can't have everything, and the UK prioritising the special relationship means we can't be open trade leader for fear of causing offence to DC. That choice wasn't supposed to happen in the world of Brexit, but unfortunately the US had other ideas.
This is a subtlety between the UK wanting to trade with everyone and having favoured partners. The first is fine as a general principle, but the second happens rather easily without considerable care to take a principle-based approach.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 2
Welcome to US tariff day during which a lot will be written and most of it won't be quite right. What we know - the US will impose arbitrary ("reciprocal" only in name) tariffs on most or all goods entering the country, on top of others already announced. 1/n
US tariffs are being imposed because President Trump likes tariffs. There is no economic logic. There are many stated reasons including encouraging US manufacturing, narrowing the trade deficit, due to unfairness of others, and raising revenue. None are convincing.
Tariffs will harm the US economy. All reputable economists will agree to this. As with any populist leader, some individuals will seek preferment over reputation. These tariffs will also be contrary to WTO rules, and trade deals the US including Trump previously signed.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 23
My morning has been pemmed. Which is fine, I've advocated for the UK joining, talked to relevant folk in the EU, heard businesses who it could help, etc. Problem is - this should be completely obvious. Every country in the region is a member. Why is it so hard for the UK?
Leavers don't care about PEM. Few businesses will lose, far more will gain. Third countries like Switzerland and Morocco want the UK to join. Yes nobody knows for sure why we didn't previously join, or why it isn't a priority now.
Until the UK does the obvious stuff like PEM, forget having a meaningful trade policy still less any meaningful EU reset. Got to take the baby steps first...
Read 4 tweets
Oct 3, 2024
What you seem unlikely to read elsewhere - yesterday's Starmer - von der Leyen meeting was successful, and had the right outcome - a commitment to regular ongoing summits, and joint working to prepare them.

No flounces, no talk of special deals. Normality theguardian.com/politics/2024/…
To those complaining about the UK's lack of detail - a lazy, uninformed complaint. The EU doesn't (yet) have a mandate, the UK doesn't (yet) need to have all the asks. Both need to come in time. That will be the test of the next few months, now was not the time. As was agreed.
Those saying this is going nowhere until the UK implements everything in full, that message was received and @NickTorfaen explicitly said this at an EU reception at Labour Conference. Labour's messaging hasn't been perfect to date, it has though been good enough.
Read 10 tweets
Jun 20, 2024
Three days in Brussels mostly talking UK-EU relations after the elections with various folk on all sides, but also hard to get away from US-EU-China talk, or concerns about the direction of travel for the EU. So what were my top 10 findings? Settle down for a thread 🧵
1 - though far from top priority, the EU will happily engage with the UK. There's interest in what a new government will do. But they also expect their own interests - recently youth mobility, and fishing - to be taken seriously. Where there's overlap - security - expect progress
2 - the UK has to prepare for a really tough ongoing engagement with the EU. This will not be a single negotiation but a series of small encounters, mini-deals, cooperations etc. Unless Labour red lines change. A new narrative for the relationship - but only in part.
Read 15 tweets

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