Thread by @mrjasonchoi

20 Crypto Hot Takes for 2022 + Beyond:

0/ Disclaimer: predictions are mostly done for fun and are not necessarily my investment theses. Timelines are mostly arbitrary just so I have some sort of benchmark.

h/t @richardchen39

1/ The low hanging fruits for DeFi have been built; the next billion to trillion dollar opportunities are in CeDeFi.

2/ Most DeFi protocols will end up looking quite similar - verticalizing into crypto banks.

3/ Total DEX volume will overtake total CEX volumes within 3 years - both spot AND futures.

4/ Self-hosted frontends for DeFi will grow to 30-50% of all DeFi usage within 5 years.

5/ Staking derivatives will expand total value locked in DeFi by 5x within the next year (staked value of top 20 PoS protocol is already = total cross-chain DeFi TVL).

6/ >50% of DeFi users will have onchain identity + credit score equivalents within next 3 years.

7/ At least 50% of the largest DeFi protocols by market cap will be built by mostly anonymous teams within 3 years.

8/ Optimistic Rollups will account for <20% of total L2 usage within 3 years.

9/ Ethereum will overtake Bitcoin in market cap...eventually.

10/ NFTs can and will transcend their underlying blockchains and individual metaverses.

11/ Value increase in top performing quartile NFTs will outweigh total revenue generated on the top NFT marketplace over the next 5 years.

12/ Most users will not care if they are using a fast L1 or a L2.

13/ The most popular L1 <> L2 / L1 <> L1 / L2 <> L2 bridge will do more daily volumes than the most popular CEX today within 3 years.

14/ Most users on the most popular dapp in 5 years won't know they are using a blockchain.

15/ One of the 5 most active and largest VCs within the next 3 years is a DAO.

16/ A DAO purchases a well-known Web 2 company and tokenizes it within the next 5 years.

17/ L1 Ethereum will account for <20% if all crypto activity by volume within 3 years.

18/ >50% of DeFi volume will be KYC’d within the next 5 years.

19/ At least one top 5 gaming studio will enter NFTs within the next 2 years.

20/ We will not see prolonged 80%+ drawdowns in most top 10 coins anymore.

If you found any of the above interesting, I will expand on some of these on my newsletter. You can subscribe here:

jasonchoi.substack.com/p/blockcrunch-…