0/ Disclaimer: predictions are mostly done for fun and are not necessarily my investment theses. Timelines are mostly arbitrary just so I have some sort of benchmark.
1/ The low hanging fruits for DeFi have been built; the next billion to trillion dollar opportunities are in CeDeFi.
2/ Most DeFi protocols will end up looking quite similar - verticalizing into crypto banks.
3/ Total DEX volume will overtake total CEX volumes within 3 years - both spot AND futures.
4/ Self-hosted frontends for DeFi will grow to 30-50% of all DeFi usage within 5 years.
5/ Staking derivatives will expand total value locked in DeFi by 5x within the next year (staked value of top 20 PoS protocol is already = total cross-chain DeFi TVL).
6/ >50% of DeFi users will have onchain identity + credit score equivalents within next 3 years.
7/ At least 50% of the largest DeFi protocols by market cap will be built by mostly anonymous teams within 3 years.
8/ Optimistic Rollups will account for <20% of total L2 usage within 3 years.
9/ Ethereum will overtake Bitcoin in market cap...eventually.
10/ NFTs can and will transcend their underlying blockchains and individual metaverses.
11/ Value increase in top performing quartile NFTs will outweigh total revenue generated on the top NFT marketplace over the next 5 years.
12/ Most users will not care if they are using a fast L1 or a L2.
13/ The most popular L1 <> L2 / L1 <> L1 / L2 <> L2 bridge will do more daily volumes than the most popular CEX today within 3 years.
14/ Most users on the most popular dapp in 5 years won't know they are using a blockchain.
15/ One of the 5 most active and largest VCs within the next 3 years is a DAO.
16/ A DAO purchases a well-known Web 2 company and tokenizes it within the next 5 years.
17/ L1 Ethereum will account for <20% if all crypto activity by volume within 3 years.
18/ >50% of DeFi volume will be KYC’d within the next 5 years.
19/ At least one top 5 gaming studio will enter NFTs within the next 2 years.
20/ We will not see prolonged 80%+ drawdowns in most top 10 coins anymore.
If you found any of the above interesting, I will expand on some of these on my newsletter. You can subscribe here:
An update: here's what major L1 protocols look like if we use TVL as a proxy for usage
Few personal thoughts:
1/ $ETH: @arbitrum is slowing creeping up in volume, but I think the space is underestimating the impact of L2s on usage because of current fees, which will come down over time
With all the attention on @avalancheavax lately, here are some tips for those who are bridging their assets across for the first time.
Thread 👇
1/ As part of my work, I've played around with most cross-chain bridges that came live the past 6 months... and I had the best experience with @avalancheavax hands down.
It's extremely easy to send $ETH assets over to Avalanche with: bridge.avax.network
2/ Avalanche is EVM-compatible - you can easily use your @Metamask setup and bridge over in a few clicks.
Clever design choices:
- Shows live confs so you know what's going on
- Auto-wraps your ETH
- Airdrops you free $AVAX to pay for gas (!)