Federalizing it won't solve much. The National Guard has all the weak points of a citizen militia; part time citizen-soldiers tightly integrated into the civilian communities they would be taskdd with policing.
Chalmers Johnson, an american cold war warrior par excellence (also something of a formative thinker in my intellectual development), worried in the last decade of is life about the US following essentially the roman path toward military dictatorship.
He worried that the expansion of the forever wars in the middle east (this was during Bush II's second term) would create a large caste of warriors alienated from civilian life, with their own martial culture susceptible to charismatic generals subverting the political system.
In 2021 its clear Johnson was just wrong about where the US was headed. The US military is not a world unto its own; it is bisected by the same division between the credentialed managers and the grunts who no longer believe them as the rest of the US.
Well, the national guard is STRUCTURALLY the opposite of this class of distant warriors Johnson (correctly) pointed to as the necessary muscle for tyranny to take root in the US. And that's the point! The founding fathers disliked standing armies for a reason!
I assume the US government ocassionally wargames this stuff, and just the problems from these vaccine mandates would lead me to believe the US Army has to count on a *significant* amount of desertion if it was ever deployed against americans.

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More from @Tinkzorg

14 Oct
Actually, let's talk about this alleged purge of the US military, and the business and best practices of purging in general. This claim about the US military being purged in preparation of tyranny is bandied about a lot, but the devil is often in the details.
Let's assume that you are an american tyrant and you want to use the armed forces to shore up your tyranny. There are then at least two things you need out of these forces: the numbers and capacity to suppress the population, and the *political reliability* to follow orders.
In terms of capacity and numbers, let's do the most general overview possible. The US has 1.346.400 active duty personnel across all the branches - army, marines, coast guard, navy, air force.
Read 32 tweets
13 Oct
Lmao. The US is just literally speedrunning down the checklist for serious political upheaval and collapse right now. Amazing.
Let me explain why this sort of thing is potentially quite significant. The US states are more or less countries in miniature, who are economically integrated into the broader republic but whose political capacity hasn't meaningfully atrophied or been taken away.
The federal government is experiencing a very serious crisis of legitimacy right now. The same cannot be said of the states. Partly, because this represents the founding mythos of the US, partly because they're the one possible alternative to the federal government.
Read 23 tweets
11 Oct
The big secret to history that nobody really tells you and that you have to find out by actually researching it yourself is that having 0 "revolutionary organization" is pretty much a prerequisite for having a revolution.

I'm not joking about this, by the way.
The absolutely most standard way these historical events play out is that ordinary people get fed up and give the system a shove it doesn't survive, at which point the "leaders" of the putative revolution have to hurriedly get out of bed and pretend they planned it all along.
The french revolution is a masterclass in this, because this dynamic repeats from the very beginning of it until basically the directory. From the day of the tiles to the great panic to the storming of the bastille to the women's march on versailles, and even beyond.
Read 5 tweets
11 Oct
What this all boils down to is that in the US you have a situation where the political classes - and certainly its putative "dissident" elements - are almost completely sidelined, while non-political people are driving events.
You saw the first stirrings of this with J6, where the figure of the mob appeared outside of the control of Trump or anyone else, which really spooked the GOP establishment. Now, these mandates - meant as a loyalty test by the democrats - have *completely* gone off the rails.
The US at this point is clearly in a textbook pre-revolutionary situation politically. By that I mean something fairly specific: a state where the political classes are discombobulated and/or deligimated, and ordinary politics become *non-linear*.
Read 12 tweets
11 Oct
I might as well do a thread on this issue of "is a civil war/troubles scenario a realistic scenario for the US?", seeing as this is the other area where there are a lot of misconceptions and faulty reasoning, mostly from the right, who love to loathe their own countrymen.
First off: a repeat of the first civil war is just something you can cross off the list. The US army - or whatever elements of it end up on different sides of some political divide - can't actually fight a war under those conditions. Why? Because US infrastructure.
US infrastructure is currently held together by duct tape and the consent of the governed. It is in fact incredibly easy to simply knock out most of the country's power grid. The stations you would need to hit aren't classified, you can probably just FOIA that stuff.
Read 30 tweets
11 Oct
Let's do a short thread on this incredibly common misunderstanding because why not.
Here is the thing: war is kinda like sex. No matter what you've heard about it, a surprising amount of it is actually fairly *consensual*. This is a fantastically important point that most people seem to miss.
What does "consent" mean in this context? Well, imagine a weapon system, like, say, an AH-64 Apache. This is an aircraft designed to provide air support and blow up tanks. For it to be effective, the enemy has to consent to a form of warfare where there are tanks to blow up!
Read 24 tweets

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