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14 Oct, 6 tweets, 4 min read
Looks like we may have solved the mystery of people getting negative PCR test results after (multiple, strong) LFT positives. As suspected, there was an issue at a lab that resulted in false negatives.

h/t @fascinatorfun
In which case, it's pretty clear this advice on the BBC a few days ago was horribly wrong. 😬

One question that needs answering is why it took so long to spot the issue. Positivity rates in some local authorities in the South West went haywire over a month ago, and there have been widespread anecdotal reports of unexpected negative test results.

Indeed, although the South West saw the most dramatic drop in positivity rates and case numbers, all of England (except London, oddly) saw an unexpected dip in positivity rates and cases starting in early September.
You can also clearly see an artificial looking dip in cases in Wales at the same time.

Northern Ireland and Scotland are less clear, as they've seen more sustained drops in case numbers starting at the same time, which may just be coincidence.
Update: the error has now been tracked back to an issue at a private lab in Wolverhampton, which is estimated to have caused 43,000 false negatives going all the way back to September 8th!

This perfectly matches the dips seen in the graphs above...

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John Bye Profile picture
15 Oct
An issue at Immensa's lab in Wolverhampton gave false negative test results to an estimated 43,000 people over a period of more than a month!

This will explain many of the recent issues with people getting positive lateral flow tests followed by false negative PCR results.
The private lab is one of many that the government paid to process PCR tests for them.

There have to be serious questions now about what oversight @UKHSA has over these labs, given the error is reported to have started in early September but was only identified this week! 😳
More here from the BBC. Although the problem mostly affected people in the South West, "some may also be in the south east of England and in Wales".

bbc.co.uk/news/health-54…
Read 6 tweets
John Bye Profile picture
10 Oct
Data from Scotland shows that non-covid excess deaths at home aren't excess at all, but displaced from hospitals and care homes.

Covid cranks have spent the last year claiming these are lockdown or "denial of healthcare" deaths. They're not.

theguardian.com/theobserver/co…
This confirms my own analysis of ONS and PHE data for England earlier this year.

The increase in deaths at home mirrors lower than normal deaths in hospital from non-covid causes.

By choice or necessity, people were dying at home instead of in hospital.

Even HART's @RealJoelSmalley came to the same conclusion. Possibly the only time he's been right about something during the entire pandemic.

So why are Joel and his HART friends still publicly claiming they're "lockdown deaths", when privately they know it's not true? 🤔 ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
John Bye Profile picture
9 Oct
Don't think @NakedScientists on @BBCBreakfast today were right to tell someone with 3 (!) +ve LFTs and 1 -ve PCR that they should consider themselves covid free.

Even if PCR is the "gold standard", getting 1 false -ve PCR result is FAR more likely than 3 false +ve LFTs in a row!
The fact is, there have been several similar anecdotal reports recently. We don't know if it's coincidence, an issue with the LFTs, or an issue with PCR testing.

Until we do, the precautionary principle would suggest treat yourself as positive, especially if you have symptoms.
There's a good explanation of the maths behind this here:

Read 4 tweets
John Bye Profile picture
6 Oct
The new covid sceptic All Party Parliamentary Group on Pandemic Response and Recovery is backed by Gupta and Heneghan's Collateral Global to the tune of over £30,000.

£5,000 in financial benefits plus £25,501 - £27,000 benefits in kind (CG is acting as their secretariat). Image
The details are included in the APPG register, updated tonight. This also confirms the group's officers include UsForThem fans Esther McVey and Miriam Cates, and climate change sceptics Sammy Wilson (DUP) and Graham Stringer (Labour). Go figure.

publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmallpar… Image
The group also has possible links to anti-vax conspiracy cranks HART.

Jemma Moran (HART's media coordinator) seems to have sent out the press release announcing the group, and HART member Dr John Lee spoke at their inaugural meeting alongside former JCVI member Robert Dingwall. Image
Read 4 tweets
John Bye Profile picture
6 Oct
I see HART are openly calling for a halt to covid vaccinations for 12-15 year olds, in the process spreading disinformation and recycling quotes they and their partner groups fed to "useful idiots" in Parliament.

Part of a long running anti-vax campaign.

Their latest story tries to scare teens and parents by talking about myocarditis (which is both more common and more severe after catching covid) and menstrual cycle disruption (which they play up, despite millions of women being vaccinated with no evidence of long term issues).
HART have previously discussed using widely discredited claims of covid vaccines supposedly causing fertility problems to put young women off getting vaccinated.

PS: the "wonderful doctor" they cite here is a far right extremist, arrested for taking part in the US Capitol riots.
Read 6 tweets
John Bye Profile picture
23 Sep
Covid denier Mark Sexton claims to have had a meeting with a "senior Conservative MP", also attended by Dolores Cahill, Anna de Buisseret, and a dozen other assorted fruitcakes.

Here's a quick who's who of the ones willing to be named...

h/t @firstname738951
Mark Sexton is an ex copper who now wastes his former colleagues' time by making vexatious crime reports against government ministers and claiming PCR tests are a terrorist attack. 🙄

Odd chap for a Tory MP to be meeting. But wait, there's more...

conservativewoman.co.uk/this-retired-p…
Anna de Buisseret is a HART member who even other HART members suspect is having some kind of mental breakdown.

She's the one who keeps banging on about Nuremberg Trials and hanging nurses...

Read 9 tweets

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