Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Robot James 🤖🏖 Profile picture
@therobotjames
Oct 14, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
This Burry chap seems nice...
And, is it just me, or is getting absolutely balls long a concentrated hugely negative-carry bet written and marked my a more powerful counterparty, essentially a masterclass in how NOT to trade?
If I were Burry then, instead of having a cringe boomer Twitter meltdown, I would simply put on some My Chemical Romance, do some blow with some goth hookers, and blow off steam the old-fashioned way.
That's probably enough internet for today... 😂

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Robot James 🤖🏖

Robot James 🤖🏖 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @therobotjames

Robot James 🤖🏖 Profile picture
Jul 30
a chat today reminded me that the crucial first step in any successful trader’s journey is to…

stop doing really dumb shit.
if you have no edge (and i think we can both assume you won’t at the start) then there’s nowhere for returns to come from.

you can’t make money like that

but there are plenty of ways you can lose money.
1) if you have no edge then every trading approach apart from doing nothing can be expected to lose money.

trading costs money (from fees, spread, and the price impact of your own trades.)
Read 10 tweets
Robot James 🤖🏖 Profile picture
Jul 8
one of the most important things i tell people over and over again, like a stuck record, is that their trading should look like a useful thing that sucks.
you know that there are extremely sophisticated trading firms out there with ultra-low latency infrastructure and sophisticated modeling techniques.

and you might reasonably ask how you, as an individual, could possibly compete with that.
and the answer is that you can’t.

but you don’t have to.

you shouldn't even try.

so, why then, can many small speculators do ok and make money?
Read 9 tweets
Robot James 🤖🏖 Profile picture
May 21
nearly everything that is a good repeatable trading idea looks like:

"under <some circumstances> this thing is likely to be too cheap/rich because <some people> are being forced or greedy or stupid... so the thing is more likely to go up/down in the future" Image
your job as trader, operating in an efficient, competitive market, is to tell yourself that your idea about that is probably bullshit.

and quickly prove to yourself that it is indeed bullshit.

destroy those hopes and dreams quickly... and move onto something more productive. Image
you can show that something is a BAD idea way quicker than you can show yourself that it's a good idea.

and showing yourself quickly that something is a bad idea is a GOOD thing...
Read 16 tweets
Robot James 🤖🏖 Profile picture
Sep 30, 2024
all active etfs are trash.

under the premise that all active etfs are trash, i looked at what it would look like if you could shorta bunch of them against an equivalent SPY long.

the legs are sized to equal volatility based on 120 day rolling realized vol. Image
highlighly scientifically, i looked at etfdb and picked 15 active / tactical ETFs based on their name and category. Image
here's the performance of the long SPY / short ETF pairs individually.

some did less bad than others, but all the ETFs underperformed SPY, risk-adjusted.

FIG, HFND, MOOD look especially bad. Image
Read 6 tweets
Robot James 🤖🏖 Profile picture
May 17, 2024
andy's top didn't last all year, but it lasted 32 days.

is that a lot or a little?

it's a lot

if you called a top on every new 252-day high, most of the time, the call would fail the next day

the expected length a top would have held is 9 days

andy's top is 95% percentile Image
that the median case is to fail straight away should be self-evident.

if the market was 50/50 up or down on a given day, half of the time the top call would fail the next day.

but, as you know, the market prefers to go up, so the most common outcome is it failing the next day.
the mean of 9 days is pushed up by a few very long tops - such as the 1375 day one that started in october 2007.

here's what the histogram would look like if i didn't truncate the x-axis Image
Read 7 tweets
Robot James 🤖🏖 Profile picture
Apr 30, 2024
i think people new to markets massively underestimate how noisy everything is.

your job as trader is to try to work out when stuff is likely to go up or down, right?

then you can bet.

any trade might not make money but do enough good trades and you're likely to over time.
the problem you have, is that things go up or down for a million different reasons.

and the massive majority of those reasons are unknowable before they happen.

why?

cos tons of people are betting on this stuff, so all the obvious stuff gets priced in beforehand.
if we know something is gonna be trading $100 tomorrow, where's it trading today?

well, $100, give or take.

it trades for the price where you can't make any money trading on obvious shit everyone knows, right?
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(