Thread by @spacecom

#VirginGalactic: Another year, another delay. Months, even years go by, between #SpaceShipTwo powered flights. Officially everything goes fine, except that it often doesn't. Everytime commercial flights are right around the corner, but then the deadlines come and go...

...the technology is complicated. And the reality nobody seems to want to address is that the tech might not be robust enough to get to the flight rates that they've been promising for 17 years. SpaceShipOne tech was good enough to win a prize in 2004, but it doesn't scale well.

Chamath and Branson have taken enormous amounts of money out of the company while the schedule has slipped. Two years ago they went public predicting commercial flights in June 2020. Latest projection is Q4 2022. Slipped about 2.5 years in 2 years.

The schedule estimates were bogus; SpaceShipTwo was severely damaged in flight in Feb 2019. The vehicle literally couldn't fly. But, they still forecast that they'd finish test program and begin commercial service in June 2020. I'm sure there are lawyer looking into that.

Then they flew Branson in July. Officially everything was fine. Unofficially, they had a red light in the cockpit and veered into Class A airspace (outside their approved airspace). FAA said the company didn't tell them. Strange decision. You generally don't eff with the FAA.

The company kept it quiet from shareholders. It filed to sue another $500 million in common stock the day after the flight. Then Branson sold hundreds of millions in stock. The truth only came out -- as with the Feb. 2019 anomaly -- when it was written about by the media.

I'm sure lawyers are examining both incidents, flight projections & VG's lack of disclosure that FAA had grounded its only spaceplane until investigation was completed. I hear from a source that big shareholders are contemplating a lawsuit.

I think the latest delays makes a lawsuit -- or several class action suits -- all but inevitable. There's only so much investors will take from a company. I think they're finding out what people in Mojave have known about VG for a very long time. Can't depend on what they say.

If this were a company an Internet of Things constellation that wasn't viable, nobody would much care. Startups fail all the time. Problem is VG is dealing with human lives here. If they're not credible and you can't believe what they say. Especially if you know some customers.

It's scary to contemplate if you know people with tickets. Virgin Galactic's goal is frequent, routine and safe access to suborbital space. They've proven SpaceShipTwo can get there, but the latter two goals -- crucial to its financial success -- have eluded them.

To wrap this up, I think lawsuits are on their way. VG is still with another year or so with large costs and no revenues. The stock tanked in after hours trading. And expect some very tough questions from analysts during the next earnings call next month.

And finally, options vest later this month. A commenter on Glass Door noted low morale and the possible loss of valuable talent once they do as people no longer have an incentive to stick around. The commenter thought that would set the program back substantially.