Henry Gao Profile picture
Oct 15, 2021 16 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Interesting article in QS where Xi explains reasons behind the "common prosperity" drive:
1. Taking the promotion of common prosperity for all people as the focus of seeking happiness for the people, and constantly consolidating the foundation of the party’s long-term governance; Image
2. High-quality development requires high-quality workers. Only by promoting common prosperity, increasing the income of urban and rural residents, and enhancing human capital, can we increase total factor productivity and consolidate the foundation for high-quality development. Image
3. The problem of global income inequality is prominent. Some countries are divided between the rich and the poor, ...leading to social tearing, political polarization & populism. China must resolutely prevent polarization, & achieve social harmony & stability.
so how to achieve this? Xi laid down the following principles:
1. everyone has to take part in, avoiding "involution" and "laying flat". Image
2. Adhere to the basic economic system. Public ownership is the mainstay & plays important role in promoting common prosperity, at the same time promote the healthy development of the non-public economy and the healthy growth of people from the non-public economy.

"healthy"... Image
3. Don't try to raise your appetite & make promises that cannot be fulfilled. The government can't pay everything. Don't fall into the trap of "welfare states" and raise lazy people. Image
4. "Common prosperity" can't be achieved overnight. It will be with us for a long time. Image
& now some practical advice:
1. "Coordinated development of finance and real estate with the real economy". So the days of big profits for big banks and developers are over? Image
2. "Attract more high-quality talents to join the team of skilled workers". Good news for college graduates! Image
3. "Adhere to the positioning that the house is used for living, not for speculation, rent and purchase at the same time, implement policies in accordance with the city, and improve the long-term rental policy".
More bad news for the developers? Image
4. "Strengthen the regulation and adjustment of high income".

How? income tax, capital tax, property tax, consumption tax. Image
So what exactly constitutes "excessively high income"? I tweeted this 2 months ago:
& this part is so loaded:
"We have a complete solution to the problem of poverty, but we still need to explore and accumulate experience on how to get rich. It is necessary to protect property rights and intellectual property rights, and protect legal wealth". Image
"We must resolutely oppose the disorderly expansion of capital, draw a negative list for access to sensitive areas, strengthen anti-monopoly supervision. At the same time, we must mobilize enthusiasm of entrepreneurs to promote the healthy development of various types of capital"
5. "Promote the common prosperity of the people's spiritual life", in line with the drive for “online civilization" that I discussed in @china_neican earlier this month.
neican.org/p/civilizing-c… Image
6. "Accelerate the industrialization of agriculture" and "revitalize rural assets", which is coded language for lifting the restrictions on sale of rural land. Image

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More from @henrysgao

Feb 23
Quick thoughts on America First Investment Policy:

1. It aims to usher in “America’s Golden Age”, which will be achieved through facilitation of “investment by US allies and partners” and “protect the US from new and evolving threats that can accompany foreign investment.” Image
2. Not only will it stop direct investment by China in the US, but also it will stop ivestment “through partner companies or investment funds in third countries.”

3. The way to solve the problem is:

A. Restricting Chinese investment “to take over US critical infrastructure” & Image
“PRC-affiliated investors … targeting the crown jewels of US technology, food supplies, farmland, minerals, natural resources, ports, and shipping terminals.”

Bad news for Chinese companies in these sectors.

B. Restricting Chinese companies listing on US exchanges, including
Read 8 tweets
Feb 17
Looking for policy signals from Xi’s meeting with private firms?

These 2 photos tell you everything:

1. 4 decades after launch of reforms, private businessmen are still only shown from behind - suggesting they remain a face the CCP prefers not to see, much like a chamber pot Image
you avoid unless absolutely necessary.

2. With only one person talking—Xi—and private businessmen busy taking notes, the message is clear:

there is no real dialogue, only directives.
3. The best these businessmen get is half of their face turned toward the leader’s entrance—signaling that all initiatives must come from the Party, while the private sector merely waits to sense which way the wind is blowing. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 12
How Might the CCP Fall?

The fall of the CCP could occur in several ways, though some scenarios appear more plausible than others.

One possibility, akin to the USSR, is a top-down dissolution where the Leader announces its end. However, this seems increasingly unlikely under Xi.
A more probable scenario might resemble the collapse of East Germany—an accidental unraveling triggered by unexpected events.

As China’s anti-corruption campaigns hang like a Damocles sword over officials, the fear of prosecution might push some to act preemptively:
For example,
Officials could make “accidental” announcements that serve as the first falling domino:
• Propaganda officials might announce the abolition of media/Party restrictions.
• Generals could declare that the military serves the people, not the Party.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 1
Bloomberg confirmed that China is raising salaries for civil servants, as I mentioned 3 days ago. The move is supposed to kill two birds with one stone: boost both consumption and the morale of officials.

However, it not only won't achieve either objective but, instead, reveals
deeper structural problems within the Chinese governance system.

1. The primary cause of weak consumption lies in the plummeting incomes of private-sector workers. In contrast, most civil servants already benefit from low housing, food, and healthcare costs, which diminishes the
marginal utility of additional income. Moreover, due to the aggressive anti-corruption campaigns in recent years, officials are less inclined to spend conspicuously, even if they have more disposable income. Thus, efforts to boost consumption should target the private sector.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 27, 2024
Who’s Gonna Decide the Fate of @tiktok_us?

Not @realDonaldTrump.
Not the US Supreme Court.
Not the US Congress.

Instead, it might just be a former Chinese gymnast: Wu Liufang.

Wu, whose 6 million followers vanished overnight on Douyin—the Chinese version of TikTok—represents
a cautionary tale of control and censorship.

A former national team gymnast, Wu struggled to make a living after retiring. To survive, she turned to flirty dance videos on Douyin. Her account, briefly suspended in Nov, was reinstated on Dec 1, skyrocketing to over 6 million
followers without her posting a single new video.

But on Christmas Eve, Douyin erased all 6 million followers, citing “vulgar content.”

Here’s the twist: Wu wasn’t the one being punished. The real victims were the 6 million users who consciously chose to follow her, only to
Read 5 tweets
Dec 21, 2024
@guoguang_wu兄的精彩演讲探讨了后中共时代政治转型中必须面对的若干重要问题,这些问题也是当前国内外华人普遍关注的焦点。如何回答这些问题,将直接关系到中国民主化的成败。我对此有一些初步思考,在此抛砖引玉,与国光兄商榷。

一、经济增长
国光兄提到的第一个问题是后中共时代的经济增长前景。
过去四十多年,坊间普遍认为中共的合法性主要来自其推动经济增长的能力。但我认为将经济增长完全归功于中共统治是片面的。改革开放前20年的经济增长,实际上主要得益于中共放松了对社会在政治经济领域的管控,释放了民间经济的活力,举凡个体经济、乡镇企业,还是民营经济,莫不如此。
而后20年的经济增长则主要得益于2001年加入WTO,融入全球经济体系,沿袭了东亚外向型经济增长模式,并无特别创新。

因此,后中共时代能否继续保持经济增长实际上是显而易见的。目前中国经济困境的两大原因分别为:
1. 外因:战狼外交和经济胁迫策略使主要出口市场对依赖中国供应链的风险产生警觉,
Read 13 tweets

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