Henry Gao Profile picture
Oct 15, 2021 16 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Interesting article in QS where Xi explains reasons behind the "common prosperity" drive:
1. Taking the promotion of common prosperity for all people as the focus of seeking happiness for the people, and constantly consolidating the foundation of the party’s long-term governance; Image
2. High-quality development requires high-quality workers. Only by promoting common prosperity, increasing the income of urban and rural residents, and enhancing human capital, can we increase total factor productivity and consolidate the foundation for high-quality development. Image
3. The problem of global income inequality is prominent. Some countries are divided between the rich and the poor, ...leading to social tearing, political polarization & populism. China must resolutely prevent polarization, & achieve social harmony & stability.
so how to achieve this? Xi laid down the following principles:
1. everyone has to take part in, avoiding "involution" and "laying flat". Image
2. Adhere to the basic economic system. Public ownership is the mainstay & plays important role in promoting common prosperity, at the same time promote the healthy development of the non-public economy and the healthy growth of people from the non-public economy.

"healthy"... Image
3. Don't try to raise your appetite & make promises that cannot be fulfilled. The government can't pay everything. Don't fall into the trap of "welfare states" and raise lazy people. Image
4. "Common prosperity" can't be achieved overnight. It will be with us for a long time. Image
& now some practical advice:
1. "Coordinated development of finance and real estate with the real economy". So the days of big profits for big banks and developers are over? Image
2. "Attract more high-quality talents to join the team of skilled workers". Good news for college graduates! Image
3. "Adhere to the positioning that the house is used for living, not for speculation, rent and purchase at the same time, implement policies in accordance with the city, and improve the long-term rental policy".
More bad news for the developers? Image
4. "Strengthen the regulation and adjustment of high income".

How? income tax, capital tax, property tax, consumption tax. Image
So what exactly constitutes "excessively high income"? I tweeted this 2 months ago:
& this part is so loaded:
"We have a complete solution to the problem of poverty, but we still need to explore and accumulate experience on how to get rich. It is necessary to protect property rights and intellectual property rights, and protect legal wealth". Image
"We must resolutely oppose the disorderly expansion of capital, draw a negative list for access to sensitive areas, strengthen anti-monopoly supervision. At the same time, we must mobilize enthusiasm of entrepreneurs to promote the healthy development of various types of capital"
5. "Promote the common prosperity of the people's spiritual life", in line with the drive for “online civilization" that I discussed in @china_neican earlier this month.
neican.org/p/civilizing-c… Image
6. "Accelerate the industrialization of agriculture" and "revitalize rural assets", which is coded language for lifting the restrictions on sale of rural land. Image

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More from @henrysgao

May 9
The US-UK trade deal is out—and it confirms most of my predictions in my @commonplc piece “The Art of a Trade Deal” 4 weeks ago:

1. Tariffs: The 10% tariff remains in place for now, but contrary to some interpretations, this doesn’t mean the UK failed to negotiate it down. The Image
Agreement explicitly states that both sides will enter negotiations to reduce tariff rates. As I noted, the likely landing point is around the US’s 3.4% rate-if the UK is willing to match it.

2. Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs): Just as I anticipated, NTBs is central to the next phase Image
For a developed country like the UK, the focus is on overregulation—technical barriers to trade, SPS measures, and similar restrictions—all explicitly referenced in the Agreement.

3. Supply Chains: I flagged this as a key issue, and the Agreement confirms it. It addresses supply Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 10
A New BRI on the Horizon?

Today’s front page of People’s Daily features the Central Peripheral Work Conference—a major development, given this is only the second such meeting in the PRC’s 76-year history.

The first such meeting was in Oct 2013, when Xi launched the BRI, which Image
was elevated to a national strategy at the 3rd Plenum of the 18th CCP Central Committee held the following month.

As I argued in this @trade_review article 3 years ago, the BRI was China’s strategic response to US containment through the TPP, where the
cambridge.org/core/journals/…Image
@trade_review US tried to “make sure the US—and not countries like China—is the one writing this century’s rules for the world’s economy.”

But the TPP was killed.

Now, as @realDonaldTrump tries to rewrite the rules of global trade through the Reciprocal Tariff Policy, China is striking back.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 9
China today released a white paper titled “China's Position on Some Issues Concerning China-US Economic, Trade Relations.”

No, it’s not about setting the record straight as it claims.

It’s a retaliation wishlist—and a catalog of Beijing’s deepest trade fears. Image
1. Retaliation List:
• Banning U.S. services exports
• Halting IP protection for U.S. companies
• Imposing forced tech transfers
• Banning U.S. food and agricultural products
• Limiting access to China’s financial markets
• Devaluing the RMB Image
2. Fear List:
• Repeal of PNTR status
• Trade and investment restrictions on national security grounds
• Expanded export controls
• Section 301 tariffs
• Section 232 investigations
• Use of trade remedy tools (AD/CVD)
• Ending the de minimis exemption
• Reciprocal tariffs Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 8
Why did Trump impose tariffs on Heard & McDonald Islands-home only to penguins, and British Indian Ocean Territory, which is occupied solely by military personnel?

No, it’s not because of internet domain names, as some speculated.

The answer is found in today’s People’s Daily Image
editorial, “Pressure and threats are by no means the right way to deal with China,” which proudly declared that China maintains “import and export records with almost all countries and regions in the UN Standard Country or Area Codes for Statistical Use.”

And guess what? Among Image
those listed in the UN Standard Country or Area Codes for Statistical Use are the Great Territories of the British Indian Ocean Territory and Heard and McDonald Islands!

unstats.un.org/unsd/methodolo…Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 7
Three things you need to know about Liberation Day tariffs:

1. It’s not about the methodology.

The formula has been widely mocked, but that misses the point. The numbers aren’t meant to hold up in a PhD defense—they’re meant to shock, to create leverage. The more extreme the
figure, the stronger the incentive for other countries to come to the negotiating table with the U.S.

2. It’s not even about the tariffs.
The real issue isn’t Vietnam’s tariff rates—it’s China’s trans-shipment tactics and its central role in global supply chains.

The aim is to
isolate China and rewrite the rules of global trade. If a country like Vietnam is willing to align with that goal, it doesn’t matter much whether it sets its tariffs for American products at 0%, 5%, or even 9.4% (current rate).

3. It’s not personal with any country—except one.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 7
Amid Trump tariff chaos, People’s Daily published an editorial today urging everyone to “Focus on Doing Your Own Things”—a phrase that sums up China’s core strategy. This thread breaks it down.

It begins by acknowledging that U.S. tariffs do hurt, but “the sky can’t collapse.” Image
That phrase—“the sky can’t collapse”—is notable. Mao used the exact same words in 1962 during a meeting of 7,000 top CCP officials, after a disastrous 13 years marked by the Great Famine and split with a world Superpower - the USSR.

Fittingly, this is also the 13th year of Xi’s Image
reign—featuring the Great Lockdown and split with a world Superpower - the US.

The editorial offers 5 reasons why “the sky can’t collapse”:

1. China is a mega-sized economy with strong resilience to U.S. pressure.
2. China’s dependence on the U.S. is shrinking: exports to U.S.
Read 15 tweets

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