Henry Gao Profile picture
Oct 15, 2021 16 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Interesting article in QS where Xi explains reasons behind the "common prosperity" drive:
1. Taking the promotion of common prosperity for all people as the focus of seeking happiness for the people, and constantly consolidating the foundation of the party’s long-term governance; Image
2. High-quality development requires high-quality workers. Only by promoting common prosperity, increasing the income of urban and rural residents, and enhancing human capital, can we increase total factor productivity and consolidate the foundation for high-quality development. Image
3. The problem of global income inequality is prominent. Some countries are divided between the rich and the poor, ...leading to social tearing, political polarization & populism. China must resolutely prevent polarization, & achieve social harmony & stability.
so how to achieve this? Xi laid down the following principles:
1. everyone has to take part in, avoiding "involution" and "laying flat". Image
2. Adhere to the basic economic system. Public ownership is the mainstay & plays important role in promoting common prosperity, at the same time promote the healthy development of the non-public economy and the healthy growth of people from the non-public economy.

"healthy"... Image
3. Don't try to raise your appetite & make promises that cannot be fulfilled. The government can't pay everything. Don't fall into the trap of "welfare states" and raise lazy people. Image
4. "Common prosperity" can't be achieved overnight. It will be with us for a long time. Image
& now some practical advice:
1. "Coordinated development of finance and real estate with the real economy". So the days of big profits for big banks and developers are over? Image
2. "Attract more high-quality talents to join the team of skilled workers". Good news for college graduates! Image
3. "Adhere to the positioning that the house is used for living, not for speculation, rent and purchase at the same time, implement policies in accordance with the city, and improve the long-term rental policy".
More bad news for the developers? Image
4. "Strengthen the regulation and adjustment of high income".

How? income tax, capital tax, property tax, consumption tax. Image
So what exactly constitutes "excessively high income"? I tweeted this 2 months ago:
& this part is so loaded:
"We have a complete solution to the problem of poverty, but we still need to explore and accumulate experience on how to get rich. It is necessary to protect property rights and intellectual property rights, and protect legal wealth". Image
"We must resolutely oppose the disorderly expansion of capital, draw a negative list for access to sensitive areas, strengthen anti-monopoly supervision. At the same time, we must mobilize enthusiasm of entrepreneurs to promote the healthy development of various types of capital"
5. "Promote the common prosperity of the people's spiritual life", in line with the drive for “online civilization" that I discussed in @china_neican earlier this month.
neican.org/p/civilizing-c… Image
6. "Accelerate the industrialization of agriculture" and "revitalize rural assets", which is coded language for lifting the restrictions on sale of rural land. Image

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More from @henrysgao

Dec 21
@guoguang_wu兄的精彩演讲探讨了后中共时代政治转型中必须面对的若干重要问题,这些问题也是当前国内外华人普遍关注的焦点。如何回答这些问题,将直接关系到中国民主化的成败。我对此有一些初步思考,在此抛砖引玉,与国光兄商榷。

一、经济增长
国光兄提到的第一个问题是后中共时代的经济增长前景。
过去四十多年,坊间普遍认为中共的合法性主要来自其推动经济增长的能力。但我认为将经济增长完全归功于中共统治是片面的。改革开放前20年的经济增长,实际上主要得益于中共放松了对社会在政治经济领域的管控,释放了民间经济的活力,举凡个体经济、乡镇企业,还是民营经济,莫不如此。
而后20年的经济增长则主要得益于2001年加入WTO,融入全球经济体系,沿袭了东亚外向型经济增长模式,并无特别创新。

因此,后中共时代能否继续保持经济增长实际上是显而易见的。目前中国经济困境的两大原因分别为:
1. 外因:战狼外交和经济胁迫策略使主要出口市场对依赖中国供应链的风险产生警觉,
Read 13 tweets
Oct 10
In an attempt to save its economy, China published a draft Private Economy Promotion Law today.

Will it save the ailing Chinese economy?

Highly unlikely.

Yet, this Law is still very useful, in that it reveals the many problems plaguing China’s private economy. Image
1. The very first Article states that the goal of the law is to “promote the healthy development of the private economy”.

But “healthy” according to whom? Should’t the private entrepreneurs be the ones to decide? Why should someone else decide this?

The answer is found in Art. 2, which states that the key to the work promoting the development of private economy is to “ensure its correct political direction”.

What then is “correct political direction”?
Read 23 tweets
Jul 31, 2023
秦晖教授的精彩演讲回答了关于中国民主化的几个重大问题:

1,民主制度是否适用于像中国这种文化和宗教传统都与世界主要民主国家截然不同的国家?

民主化的实现并不以特定文化或宗教为先决条件,基督教、君主制可以促成民主化,儒学同样可以也可以促进民主化。

2,像中国这样长期实行社会主义、
自由传统薄弱的国家,是否能够实现民主化?

无论是左派还是右派,都可以促进民主化:左派可以要求增加政府责任,右派可以要求限制政府权力。而与之相反,在中国,那些只要求政府扩权、却反对相应扩大政府责任的左派都是伪左派;同理,那些不要求限制政府权力、只要求限制政府责任的右派也是伪右派。
3,如何实现民主化?

实现民主化,不需要喊那些激动人心的口号,也不需要讲那些诘屈聱牙的道理,只要人人从我做起,追问政府责任,要求政府履行其本应履行的义务,从社会主义的初心出发,就可以把政府逼得不堪重负,最终被迫召开制宪圆桌会议。
Read 4 tweets
Jun 29, 2023
Ban on forced transfer of source code is one of the key obligations in the CPTPP. It has long been regarded as one of the main obstacles for China’s accession, with many claiming that China would never accept the obligation.

But this changed today with a State Council document.
In this document called “Notice of several measures to promote institutional opening-up in free trade pilot zones and pilot free trade port in line with the international high standards”, the State Council states that the relevant authorities shall not
“require the transfer of, or access to, source code of software owned by a person of another Party, as a condition for the import, distribution, sale or use of such software, or of products containing such software”, which is language copied verbatim from the CPTPP.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 29, 2023
China adopted its first Foreign Relations Law yesterday.

Why the law now & what are the implications for foreign businesses? I explained in this @SCMPNews story.

‘Rule of law’: China adopts new legislation to help combat foreign sanctions via @scmpnewssc.mp/kiqq?utm_sourc…
In addition to my quotes along with @georgemagnus1 below in the story, I'd like to point to the following features of the law which will make it harder for businesses, both Chinese and foreign, to operate:
@georgemagnus1 1. Art. 5 emphasizes the central unified leadership of the CCP, which adds further to the uncertainty of the business environment as the Party could take actions based on political rather than legal considerations.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 24, 2023
Key changes in the State Council Working Rules:
1. The guiding thoughts section deleted all previous references to Marxism, Leninism, Mao, Deng, Three Represent, & Scientific Development Outlook, and keeps only XJP Thoughts on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in the New Era
2. All major decisions and problems MUST be reported to the CCP Central Committee first.
3. All State Council members shall resolutely implement the decisions of the Party Central Committee, and refrain from speech and behavior that contradicts the decisions of the CCP Central Committee.
Read 6 tweets

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