Trump’s seemingly unhinged pounding on election “fraud” looks to most people like bad strategy for getting re-elected. But is it?
Imagine a world in which substantial fraud is someday verified in at least one precinct that flipped from Trump to Biden. Suddenly Jan 6th looks different even if it shouldn’t.
Now ask yourself how likely it is that a vast and sometimes chaotic process such as a national election could have at least one discoverable example of confirmed fraud in one precinct. Maybe 100% odds?
I accept the outcome of the 2020 election. Our imperfect system picked Biden. But Trump’s “bet” that corruption — at any level— is discoverable is not crazy.
Trump doesn’t need to prove in court that enough votes were flipped to cost him the election. He just needs one super-sketchy precinct to sell to the public.
I don’t know if you have noticed, but Trump is good at making the nation focus where he wants you to focus. He can ruin a whole barrel of apples with one bad apple — or one bad precinct.
And for Trump’s bet to make sense, he only has to understand how flawed humans can be in general, and how many of them were involved in managing the elections. He knows people. And he can count.
Don’t be so quick to bet against him for 2024. He’s motivated. He’s pissed. And he placed a better bet than you might think.
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